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1/3/2009 - The Current Market Sentiment

Discussion in 'Current Market Sentiments' started by fx-recommends, Mar 2, 2009.

  1. fx-recommends

    fx-recommends Content Contributor

    Aug 6, 2008
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    As the eyes are now focusing on the opening of US equity market, The greenback and the Japanese yen are getting support on the current risk aversion sentiment as the recent weak US data by the end of last week and the feeble red close of the US equity market which effects negatively on the global stock markets today. The US GDP Q4 has shrunk by 6.2% and Feb consuming sentiment of Michigan university final reading came down to 56.3 following the weak release of US consuming Confidence survey of the same month which reached 25.

    The gold has made an upward gap opening at 948$ and it is trading above 950$ since the beginning of the week. The gold could get use of the spreading pessimism in the equity markets since the break of Dow Jones lower than 7550 to record 1006 but the pressure of the profit taken higher volumes at this level could drive it lower to record 926.5$. The way down faces a support right now at 930$ which was its recent floor to 1006$ and breaking it can meet an intermediate supporting area from 915$ to 988$ then the main support at 850$ level and the way up should meet a resistance around 960$ level and on the break of it , the main resistance stands at the psychological level at 1000$.

    The single currency is still under the pressure of the growth down side risks in the Euro zone and the suffering of the European eastern economies because of the credit crisis negative impact on their banking and financial loses sectors, In the same time of the slumps of the equity markets in Europe and the woes of the workers in several Europe countries. The market is waiting later this month for the ECB interest rate decision which is widely expected to be a cut by .5% after the recent tame inflation pressure data of Jan which can open the way for the ECB be to cut interest rate with no worries about the inflation which is effected negatively by the recession pressure and decline of the global demand which drives the prices down and from another side, the commodities and energy prices are suffering from this weak demand. The January HICP Final y/y was up by just 1.1% in a lower pace of Dec which was by 1.6% and the core HICP increased yearly by 1.8% and the core monthly rate came surely negative by 1.3% and today we have just have the flash release of Feb CPI which came up by JUST 1.2% yearly

    By god's will, we are waiting today for the release of US Jan core PCE which is expected to be up by 1.6% yearly from 1.7% in Dec. we wait also for the release of the monthly release US personal income which is expected to come lower further by .3% in January after the decline of December by -.2%. We wait also for the release of US ISM manufacturing index of Feb which is expected to be 34 from 35.6 in Jan.

    Best wishes

    FX Consultant
    Walid Salah El Din
    E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com

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