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10/2/2009 - The current market sentiment

Discussion in 'Current Market Sentiments' started by fx-recommends, Feb 9, 2009.

  1. fx-recommends

    fx-recommends Content Contributor

    Aug 6, 2008
    Likes Received:
    The single currency has found strong difficulty to surpass 1.31 or even to stand above 1.3 on this current dovish market sentiment. The single currency is expected to have another .5% cut in the next ECB meeting to stimulate the current struggling growth in the Euro zone. In this same time, the greenback interest rate is nearly at its bottom which can form a dovish interest rate outlook differential pressure on the single currency versus the greenback which is getting support from the treasuries buying as a safe haven from a side and the current risk aversion sentiment from another side.

    The doubts towards Obama's stimulating plan effect comes to the spot of the equities markets from time to time and any other efforts to get out the economy from its recession and deflation spiral and this can strain the recent equity markets appreciation and the risk apatite generally which makes the USDJPY standing above 90 is difficult as it always finds selling in unwinding waves of the carry trades which support the JPY across the broad, in spite of the greenback strength in these dovish times.
    So, it were outpacing the greenback versus the Euro and the sterling and now after their recent appreciations on the recent equity market rises, the profit taken can threat these currencies dragging them lower versus the Japanese yen as the market can see that the problem is not over and the these recent optimism is still a chance to sell and this sentiment is not out of the market yet especially as the weak economic performance data are still persisting in the same pace of declines with realized staving off. By the end of last week we have had further more than expected lost jobs in US in Jan to reach 598k and increasing of the final reading revision of December to 577k and in spite of that it is a lagged indicator but it effect negatively on the consuming sentiment and investing sentiment as well as it is not over at this point.
    In this same time, The US ISM manufacturing index is still sinking in the contracting territory below 50 at 35.6 and even the US Jan ISM non-manufacturing index which has improved to 44.2 in Jan is still contracting.

    Best wishes

    FX Consultant
    Walid Salah El Din
    E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com

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