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17/6/2009 - The Current Market Sentiment

Discussion in 'Current Market Sentiments' started by fx-recommends, Jun 17, 2009.

  1. fx-recommends

    fx-recommends Content Contributor

    Aug 6, 2008
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    The greenback could get use of the correction of the equities market in this week. Dow has closed down again yesterday at 8504 driving down below 1.38 this time to reach 1.3750 during the US session before finding the support which brought it back above 1.39 to trade currently at 1.3915. The single currency has been underpinned potentially by the optimistic figures of the Germane ZEW of June which surged to 44.8 from 35 in May while the current conditions figure improved to -89 from -93 in May which delighted the pressure on the single currency. The single currency could make a bottom in the beginning of last week versus the greenback at 1.38 and making a new low this week at 1.375 after toping at 1.418 can put a technical pressure on the single currency which can make 1.4045 harder to be broken after falling from it forming a lower high by the end of last week. By God's will, There are no important data waited to move the currencies market this week while it is important to wait today to see the US CPI data of May which is expected to ease further to -.9% from -.7% in April broadly y/y and the core figure to stand at the same rate of April at 1.9% y/y.
    The British pound has joined the single currency the same performance versus the greenback as it has found support from the stronger than expected inflation data of May which helped it to bounce up from below 1.63 versus the greenback to retest 1.644 as a resistance. May UK CPI came up by 2.2% y/y while the market was waiting for just 1.9% and the monthly figure came up to .6% from .2% in April while the market was waiting for .3%. by god's will, there is no waited data today from UK but we wait tomorrow for the release of UK retail sales of May which are expected to ease monthly to .4% from .9% in April and yearly to -.1% From 2.6% in April. The British pound was underpinned relatively recently by April industrial production of UK which increased by .3% after March declining by .6% and the market was waiting for a another declining by .1%and the UK manufacturing productions which increased by .2% in April from a fall by .1% in March and the market was waiting for a flat reading in April. The British pound has suffered recently from the political concerns around the Labor party future but it could bottom out at 1.58 in the beginning of last week but it has faced an intermediate resistance at 1.644 level as it was the lower high which has been made on the 4th this month of after its peak of the year at 1.666 in the beginning of this month.
    In the beginning of this month, The gold has found the support from the increases of the commodities and energy prices which came accompanied with the rise of the market confidence in this gradual recovery which has been seen halting this week after the decline of NY fed manufacturing survey of June to -9.41 from -2.12 which encourage the investors to take profits from the stocks market. The gold has been underpinned too by the market worries about the US treasuries future and the increased probabilities of Fed's hiking interest rate to add attractiveness to them or at least staving off its quantitive easing steps using the US treasuries which can erode the Fed efforts to stimulate growth but the massive decline of US total net TICS flows of April to -53.2b from -23.b came to ensure this risk adding pressure on the US equities market. The gold eased this week with the easing of commodities and energy prices this week amid correction in the equities market. 960$ has formed a resistance in the face of it to close below it for the second week which put further technical pressure lead to further declining below 942.8$ reached 925.88$ yesterday and it is trying to test 940$ right now as a resistance.
    Best wishes

    FX Consultant
    Walid Salah El Din
    E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com

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