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3/3/2009 - The current market sentiment

Discussion in 'Current Market Sentiments' started by fx-recommends, Mar 3, 2009.

  1. fx-recommends

    fx-recommends Content Contributor

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    The high yielding currencies have got some support today from the equities market retracement of its recent loses. Also the Australian central bank keeping of its interest rate unchanged today at 3.25% could underpin the Australian dollar across the broad.

    The owes of the equities market may stopped today but they are looking far away from ending soon as the recent data have shown that the pessimism is still containing the current market sentiment and the consuming is still shrinking in US and we can have a great deal of losing jobs weak in this week release of US non-farm pay roll of Feb which is expected to be -600k currently.

    On the current equity market retracement, the gold turned lower to trade just above 920$ right now. The gold has made an upward gap opening at 948$ with the beginning of this week and it can face now an intermediate supporting area from 915$ to 988$ then the main support at 850$ level and the way up should meet a resistance around 960$ level and on the break of it , the main resistance stands at the psychological level at 1000$.

    The single currency is still suffering from the negative impact of the credit crisis on the eastern European banking and financial sectors, in this same time of the slumps of the equities markets in Europe and the woes of the workers in several parts in European countries.
    The market is waiting later this week for the ECB interest rate decision which is widely expected to be a cut by .5% after the recent tame inflation pressure data of Jan which can open the way for the ECB be to cut interest rate with no worries about the inflation which is effected negatively by the recession pressure and decline of the global demand which drives the prices down and from another side, the commodities and energy prices are suffering from this weak demand. The January HICP Final y/y was up by just 1.1% in a lower pace of Dec which was by 1.6% and the core HICP increased yearly by 1.8%and the core monthly rate came surely negative by 1.3%. The single currency dived under 1.26 after these data and the flash release of Feb CPI has come up by just 1.2% yearly with no surprise.

    By god's will, we are waiting today for the release of US ISM non-manufacturing index of Feb which is expected to be 41 from 42.9 in Jan. We have also the BOC interest rate decision which is widely expected to be a cut by another -.5% to be just .5% and we wait later today for Bernenke's testify and US treasury secretary Geithner to talk and also from Europe the ECB president Mr. Trichet.

    Best wishes

    FX Consultant
    Walid Salah El Din
    E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
    http://www.fx-recommends.com
     
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