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6/5/2009 - The current market sentiment

Discussion in 'Current Market Sentiments' started by fx-recommends, May 5, 2009.

  1. fx-recommends

    fx-recommends Content Contributor

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    The optimisms momentum of equity market has been faded during today trading giving back the greenback some of its recent loses versus the European currencies. The greenback has suffered in the beginning of this week across the broad from the increased risk apatite of the investors hoping for a closer recovery from the current recession which pushed the S&P 500 to get over this year loses closing above 900 again and also the Dow which could accelerate its gains reaching 8426 could hold these gains closing above 8400 in spite of today losing momentum. The markets were waiting for Bernanke's testimony today but we have not found something new as he has repeated the recent US assessment of the fed referring to the current slower pace of contraction and the gradual pace of economic recovery.
    The European equities markets have continued following US session losing momentum undermining the single currency. By god's will, we wait later this week for another ECB cut by .25% with no further untraditional easing steps as widely expected as the same as last meeting on the second of last month with an expected elevation of the deflation risks over the short term. The single currency could get benefits from this increased risk apitite versus the greenback from last week reaching 1.3435 with the impulsive beginning of the stocks markets this week. The single currency has been suffering from the low level of inflation and the increased probability of deflation which can enable ECB to cut the key interest rate in the eurozone further and taking untraditional easing stimulation steps forward in its current easing policy to spur the current cooled invetments by adopting the quatitive easing policy which can be by buying eurpean bonds for affording liquidity to the european governements to spend further and helping the ailing economy following US which can increase the inflation preassure as what has been mentioned by the ECB president Jean Claude Trichet on 2 april meeting when he downplayed the deflation risks. By god's will, we are waiting today from Eurozone for April EU services PMI figure and it is expected to be 43.1 again as March and the EU retail sales of March which are expected to be increased by .1% m/m from a shrinking in Feb BY .6% and the yearly figure is expected to be down by 2.6% from 4% falling in Feb.
    The release of April ISM non-Manufacturing index has improved too to come at 43.7 from 40.8 in March and better than the market expectations of 42.5 following The release of April ISM Manufacturing index which came better than expected at 40.1 helping the optimism pace of the markets which believe currently on a slowing of the contraction pace currently. by god's will, we wait today for the ADP Employment changes of April which are expected to be -644k from -742k in March as a key of the US labor report of April release by the end of it, As the market is looking for a slower pace of lying off too as the unemployment current pace can undermine the consuming sentiment which have improved recently as we have seen US April US Consumer Confidence index which was expected to go up to 29.5 from 26 in March coming better than expected at 39.2 following the preliminary release of April University of Michigan Confidence index which came better than the market expectations of 58.5 at 61.9 and the final reading came higher at 65.1 ensuring this improving by the end of last week.
    Best wishes

    FX Consultant
    Walid Salah El Din
    E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
    http://www.fx-recommends.com
     
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