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A Week Of Economic Risk Events Await

Discussion in 'Forex Daily News & Outlook' started by mercaforex, Jan 25, 2010.

  1. mercaforex

    mercaforex New Member

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    By Mercaforex


    USD:
    The USD was almost a sea of tranquility on Friday compared to its previous trading sessions. The greenback range traded against both the EUR and GBP as Wall Street tumbled again. The strength in the USD was at the forefront of investors thoughts, as a wave of rather troubling data and news prevailed internationally. With no economic releases on Friday from the U.S., the equity markets were left to sputter amidst a risk adverse crowd feeding off of the bad vibrations provided by the Obama administration’s stance on proprietary trading and the lackluster employment data from Thursday. This is an absolute huge week of data, and critical risk events could unfurl via government hearings and pronouncements. Wall Street turned in its worst week in ten months and investors will be on a proverbial razors edge knowing the amount of economic releases and government hearings on deck.
    Starting off the onslaught on Monday regarding data will be the Existing Home Sales figures and this will be directly shadowed by a weary equity market that still has plenty of quarterly earnings on the horizon. Tomorrow will continue to pick up steam with the confirmation hearings of Ben Bernanke in the Senate in order for him to retain the post of Federal Reserve Chairman. Also the CB Consumer Confidence survey will be published in addition to other reports. The middle of this week will continue to build in momentum as the FOMC statement is due on monetary policy and the week will finish with ‘only’ the Advance GDP on Friday. In other words, this week’s possible risk scenarios and last week’s results set the framework for what could be an absolutely tumultuous marketplace. The USD will be an instrumental focus and could become a byword for investors if they begin to seek a defensive posture.

    EUR:
    The EUR found some stability on Friday after struggling all week long against the USD. Without too much in the way economic data going into the weekend, the EUR may have found its footing because some investors believe that its decline may have been too quick. The Industrial New Orders did show a slight improvement. However the upcoming data from Germany today and tomorrow will be more important. The GfK German Consumer Climate survey is on the calendar today and this will be followed tomorrow by the German Ifo Business Climate. The data will give investors plenty of insight into the health of German economy and thus a European picture. Taking into consideration the amount of data and risk events that will take place internationally, the EUR will find itself in a battleground as investors ascertain its true value. The shadows surrounding the EUR have been dark taking into context the Sovereign debt issue and if the German data this week provides less than stellar statistics the EUR could find headwinds.

    GBP:
    The Sterling was able to find a balanced range on Friday even as the Retail Sales numbers from the U.K. proved disappointing. Without any major economic data on the schedule today, investors will be geared towards tomorrow’s Preliminary GDP statistics which are anticipated to show growth. The U.K. government has been under immense pressure the past few months as they have tried to dissect and explain the dynamics of the economic downturn. If any surprises should occur in tomorrow’s data it could set off a firestorm within the GBP. Like all the major currencies the Sterling will be riding a volatile wave of data and risk events this week and could very well find itself under pressure according to the winds of risk sentiment. The Sterling traded at the lower realms of its range against the USD last week and traders are certainly going to get an opportunity to test its range this week.

    JPY:
    The JPY found itself becoming stronger on Friday as the international trading sessions wore on. With the turbulent day of declines across global bourses the JPY found further safe haven movement and found the strongest parts of it range. If equities continue to stumble this week the JPY will find likely find additional takers even though it is clearly hovering near troublesome highs.



    A Week Of Economic Risk Events Await
     
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