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ADP Numbers Out Today

Discussion in 'Forex Daily News & Outlook' started by mercaforex, Mar 3, 2010.

  1. mercaforex

    mercaforex New Member

    Jul 1, 2009
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    By Mercaforex

    The USD stumbled slightly towards the end of the day against the major currencies but nevertheless provided traders ample range. There was little in the way of economic data from the U.S. on Tuesday except for Total Vehicle Sales and these figures proved disappointing. However skeptics were likely ready for a negative consumer number from the auto sales. Today the ADP Non Farm Employment Change statistics will be released and the estimate is minus -15K. The ADP figures will be used as an early barometer for the official government jobless result due on Friday. Tomorrow the weekly Unemployment Claims stats will be published. The Non Farm data this week is gearing up to be an important lynchpin for investors who have been highly cautious.
    The U.S. will also bring forth the ISM Non Manufacturing PMI today and the forecast is anticipating a slight improvement. Crude Oil Inventories will be presented and the commodities should be watched closely. The U.S. equity markets turned in gains yesterday but once again they were slight, showing that investor sentiment has not become overly optimistic. On the political front regarding economics, President Obama is said to be taking into consideration a new proposal for his health care initiative and Congress is running into headwinds trying to get new regulatory reforms for the financial markets formalized. The USD did trade lower against the EUR and GBP on Tuesday, but this may have had more to do with the traders who have been tempted into believing that the USD had gained too swiftly.

    While CPI data was released from Europe on Tuesday and proved less than stellar, the EUR did gain against the USD. German Retail Sales figures will be released today and the estimate is for a minus -0.5% outcome. Also the Final Services PMI number is on the schedule from Europe and expected to match the previous reading of 52.0. However, the question that should be asked is if any investors will even glance at the above data. Not to beat a dead horse, but the Greek debt situation is not about to go away anytime soon. Greece is said to be readying a new austerity plan in an effort to get the backing of the European Union to cover its massive fiscal emergency. The Greek Prime Minister last night warned in a speech that his country could go bankrupt if it does not get a proper lifeline. While an accord has been said to be in the works for some time, it remains to be seen what will be in the details. The Greek population has reacted to the fiscal chaos by going on strike in some quarters and this has to bring into question the ability of the Greek government to really implement the stringent measures that will be needed to cut its budget and deficit. Tomorrow the ECB will hold its monetary policy meeting and President Trichet will hold his news conference and needless to say he should be expecting tough questions. The EUR did well yesterday as the day came to an end, but this does not mean it has seen the last of the pressure that has been exerted on it.


    The Sterling was able to find some equilibrium on Tuesday but is still at the very low end of its value against the USD. The Construction PMI was released yesterday and came in slightly negative with a reading of 48.5 compared to the estimate of 48.9. Today the Service PMI will be published and is anticipated to have a reading of 55.0, which would be an improvement. Tomorrow the Bank of England is on the calendar as the MPC will announce their monetary policy for the month. The GBP has come under the auspice of swirling storm clouds from mixed data, political uncertainty, debt issues and corresponding sentiment being generated from the European Union. The Sterling was able to climb away from the lower end of the barrel on Tuesday, but traders will have to be ready for a range that can be tested at a moment’s notice.

    The JPY continued to show that it is receiving backing from investors who are less than thrilled with the overall questions that are spiraling into the investment world. The JPY and USD find themselves in a flight to quality mode and it appears that until there is a change in sentiment that is strong, that this dynamic is not about to go away. The question that traders must monitor is how this consolidated trend will continue to play out.

    ADP Numbers Out Today

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