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Daily Forex Analysis from FXCC Nov 20 2012

Discussion in 'Major Currency Crosses' started by alayoua, Nov 20, 2012.

  1. alayoua

    alayoua New Member

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    Daily Forex Analysis from FXCC Nov 20 2012

    Moody's downgrades France to Aa1 from Aaa

    FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Moody's has downgraded France's government bond rating to Aa1 from Aaa, maintains negative outlook. Moody's decision to downgrade France and maintain the negative outlook reflects the following:

    From Moody's: 1.) France's long-term economic growth outlook is negatively affected by multiple structural challenges, including its gradual, sustained loss of competitiveness and the long-standing rigidities of its labour, goods and service markets. 2.) France's fiscal outlook is uncertain as a result of its deteriorating economic prospects, both in the short term due to subdued domestic and external demand, and in the longer term due to the structural rigidities noted above. 3.) The predictability of France's resilience to future euro area shocks is diminishing in view of the rising risks to economic growth, fiscal performance and cost of funding. France's exposure to peripheral Europe through its trade linkages and its banking system is disproportionately large, and its contingent obligations to support other euro area members have been increasing. Moreover, unlike other non-euro area sovereigns that carry similarly high ratings, France does not have access to a national central bank for the financing of its debt in the event of a market disruption.
    https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/20112012/

    UPCOMING EVENTS :
    2011-08-10 **:00 GMT : European Monetary Union. EcoFin Meeting
    2011-08-10 07:00 GMT : Germany. Producer Price Index
    2012-11-20 13:30 GMT : United States. Housing Starts
    2012-11-20 17:15 GMT : United States. Fed's Bernanke Speech

    UPCOMING EVENTS :
    2012-11-20 06:07 GMT : GBP/USD bulls have room to run; resistance at 1.6065 - V.Bednarik
    2012-11-20 05:52 GMT : EUR/USD holds 1.28; Greece aid hopes outweigh France downgrade
    2012-11-20 05:27 GMT : AUD/USD long term bearish – Forex.com
    2012-11-20 05:02 GMT : NZD/USD limited below key Fibo around 0.82

    ---------------------
    EURUSD :
    HIGH 1.28142 LOW 1.27649 BID 1.27885 ASK 1.27891 CHANGE -0.19% TIME 08 : 11 : 04

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Upwards scenario: On the bigger picture trend still is pointing up. Targets at 1.2824 (R2) and 1.2837 (R3) might be attractive for the uptrend penetration if the price manage to break our next resistance level at 1.2811 (R1). Downwards scenario: Clearance of next support level at 1.2785 (S1) might lead to the retracement formation with next expected targets at 1.2772 (S2) and 1.2760 (S3) in potential.

    Resistance Levels: 1.2811, 1.2824, 1.2837
    Support Levels: 1.2785, 1.2772, 1.2760

    ----------------------
    GBPUSD :
    HIGH 1.59195 LOW 1.58914 BID 1.59130 ASK 1.59135 CHANGE 0.03% TIME 08 : 11 : 05

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Upwards scenario: Market moves in consolidation mode after the uptrend formation and we expect retest of previous day high later on today. Clearance of next resistance level at 1.5924 (R1) would suggest next targets at 1.5936 (R2) and 1.5947 (R3). Downwards scenario: While next support is placed at 1.5907 (S1), decline below it would put in focus next target at 1.5894 (S2) and any further depreciation would then be limited to 1.5882 (S3) intraday.

    Resistance Levels: 1.5924, 1.5936, 1.5947
    Support Levels: 1.5907, 1.5894, 1.5882

    -----------------------------
    USDJPY
    HIGH 81.432 LOW 81.142 BID 81.309 ASK 81.313 CHANGE -0.12% TIME 08 : 11 : 06

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Sideway
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Upwards scenario: Instrument stabilized and trades in a narrow channel without priority in direction. Fresh peak is acting now as resistance level at 81.43 (R1), penetration above it would suggest next targets at 81.59 (R2) and 81.76 (R3) on the upside. Downwards scenario: We suggest waiting for a clear break out of important levels prior taking any positions. If USDJPY manage to break our support level at 81.12 (S1), we expect next targets at 80.94 (S2) and 80.75 (S3) in potential.

    Resistance Levels: 81.43, 81.59, 81.76
    Support Levels: 81.12, 80.94, 80.75

    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( ECN Brokers | ECN Forex Brokers | ECN Trading | FXCC )
     
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