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Daily Forex Analysis from FXCC Nov 22 2012

Discussion in 'Major Currency Crosses' started by alayoua, Nov 22, 2012.

  1. alayoua

    alayoua New Member

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    Daily Forex Analysis from FXCC Nov 22 2012

    Market pricing Greece deal by Monday

    Judging by the reaction of the market after EU authorities failed to reach a deal on Greece, hopes that by Monday leaders will resolve the technicalities and find a way to unblock the next disbursement of bailout money to Greece, continue to run high, and so does the Euro. There are varies option on the table, with the WSJ citing the three most likely, which include a debt buybacks program, loan interest cuts to 0.25%, which may potentially save the country over 44 billion euros, and a return of SMP profits. The German leader Angela Merkel advocated after the last EcoFin meeting that they could beef up the EFSF funds by 10 billion euros to support an activation of a Greece buy back program. Meanwhile, EU leaders are scheduled to have talks today about budget talks, with the market focusing on the area's spending plan. Headline over this meeting will hardly move the Euro.

    Eurozone finance ministers are discussing options to bring down Greece's debt to 120% of GDP in 2020. One of the measures under discussion is suspending for 10 years interest payments on loans provided to Greece by the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), Reuters reported citing an unnamed official. Another measure could be to buy back Greek debt held by private financial institutions, offering 30% of its value, while a third step would be to cut the interest on €53 billion of bilateral loans to Greece, to 25 basis points from the current 150 basis points.
    https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/22112012/


    UPCOMING EVENTS :
    2012-11-22 08:28 GMT | Germany. Markit Services PMI
    2012-11-22 08:58 GMT | European Monetary Union. Markit Services PMI
    2012-11-22 13:30 GMT | Canada. Retail Sales
    2012-11-22 15:00 GMT | European Monetary Union. Consumer Confidence

    FOREX NEWS :
    2012-11-22 05:44 GMT | EUR/USD below 1.16 in 2013 favored – JPM
    2012-11-22 04:07 GMT | GBP/JPY moving in tight ranges below 132
    2012-11-22 03:03 GMT | AUD is 5% overvalued – JPM
    2012-11-22 01:28 GMT | AUD/CAD risks to the downside if below 1.0300 – TD Securities

    -----------------------------
    EURUSD :
    HIGH 1.28682 LOW 1.28261 BID 1.28466 ASK 1.28472 CHANGE 0.14% TIME 08:17:21

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Upwards scenario: EURUSD tested positive side today and gains 0.14 %. Local high, formed today acts now as next barrier for further price appreciation. Clearance of 1.2868 (R1) would suggest next targets at 1.2885 (R2) and 1.2902 (R3). Downwards scenario: Important support level locates right at 1.2831 (S1). Successful retest here would open route towards to next target at 1.2814 (S2) and any further decline would then be limited to final support for today at 1.2796 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.2868, 1.2885, 1.2902
    Support Levels: 1.2831, 1.2814, 1.2796

    ----------------------------
    GBPUSD :
    HIGH 1.59698 LOW 1.59509 BID 1.59599 ASK 1.59606 CHANGE 0.06% TIME 08:17:22

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Upwards scenario: GBPUSD accomplished new step of uptrend formation. Risk of further market increase is seen above the resistance at 1.5970 (R1). Violation here might increase bullish pressure and expose next targets at 1.5981 (R2) and 1.5992 (R3). Downwards scenario: Price depreciation below the support at 1.5949 (S1) level might likely push the pair toward the second target at 1.5939 (S2) and any further market decline would then be limited to support at 1.5928 (S3) price.

    Resistance Levels: 1.5970, 1.5981, 1.5992
    Support Levels: 1.5949, 1.5939, 1.5928

    -----------------------
    USDJPY :
    HIGH 82.591 LOW 82.366 BID 82.470 ASK 82.474 CHANGE -0.07% TIME 08:17:24

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Up trend
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Upwards scenario: If we take a look on the hourly chart we can see that medium-term bias is clearly positive. We expect further appreciation if the price manages to overcome 82.61 (R1). Next targets could be found at 82.80 (R2) and 82.99 (R3). Downwards scenario: A failure to clear next resistance barrier would open the way towards the initial support level at 82.26 (S1) price. Loss here might take the pair towards to eventual targets, located at 82.07 (S2) and 81.87 (S3) in potential.

    Resistance Levels: 82.61, 82.80, 82.99
    Support Levels: 82.26, 82.07, 81.87

    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( ECN Forex Trading| Forex Rates | Forex Market | FXCC )
     
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