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Daily Forex Analysis from FXCC Nov 30 2012

Discussion in 'Major Currency Crosses' started by alayoua, Nov 30, 2012.

  1. alayoua

    alayoua New Member

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    Daily Forex Analysis from FXCC Nov 30 2012

    Moody's predicts softer EU GDPs in 2013

    Following comments from Moody’s about Greece struggling to be back on a sustainable debt path, also adding that they see high odds of Greek default on privately held debt, the rating agency hit back again on Thursday, this time to remind Eurozone countries that growth for 2013 is expected to be meager. According to Moody's, the Euro zone GDP is expected to rise 0.2% next year, with France GDP projection at 0.4%, Germany to show a 1.2% increase, while contractions in the tune of 4.2% and 1.5% are expected in Greece and Spain respectively. If Greece leaves the euro zone, the EU GDP would fall 4.5%, Moody’s forecasts.

    An official from the Greek finance ministry announced on Wednesday plans of hiring Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley to carry out the voluntary bond buyback. He affirmed that Deutsche Bank would take on the role of the principal supervisor, but would work closely together with Morgan Stanley. This decision comes after the EU and the IMF reached an agreement on conducting a debt repurchase aimed at reducing Greek debt to sustainable levels. Details of the buyback will be announced next week by the Greek debt management agency. As it has almost run out of money, the Greek government proposed that it would borrow 10 billion euros from the EFSF, which would allow it to buy 30 billion euros worth of debt, reducing thus its outstanding obligations by 20 billion euros. Greece still hasn't decided at what price it will offer the bond buyback to private holders of bonds.-FXstreeet.com
    https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/30112012/


    UPCOMING EVENTS :
    2012-11-30 07:00 GMT | Germany. Retail Sales (YoY) (Oct)
    2012-11-30 10:00 GMT | European Monetary Union. Unemployment Rate (Oct)
    2012-11-30 13:30 GMT | United States. Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Prices Index (YoY) (Oct)
    2012-11-30 13:30 GMT | Canada. Gross Domestic Product Annualized (QoQ) (Q3)

    FOREX NEWS :
    2012-11-30 05:39 GMT | GBP/USD flat below 1.6050, ‘favors the upside’ – V.Bednairk
    2012-11-30 05:26 GMT | USD/JPY higher for the session, but still flat for the week
    2012-11-30 04:28 GMT | EUR/USD soon expected to crack 1.30 - UBS
    2012-11-30 03:42 GMT | GBP/JPY capped below 8-month highs 132.50

    ----------------------
    EURUSD :
    HIGH 1.30067 LOW 1.29694 BID 1.30015 ASK 1.30022 CHANGE 0.18% TIME 08:21:10

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Upwards scenario: Extension of the stability above the 1.3013 (R1) level would keep the bullish structure intact and validate next intraday targets at 1.3028 (R2) and 1.3042 (R3). Downwards scenario: The hourly structure might turn into negative scenario if the price mange to overcome next support level at 1.2982 (S1) later on today. Supportive areas locates at 1.2967 (S2) and 1.2951 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.3013, 1.3028, 1.3042
    Support Levels: 1.2982, 1.2967, 1.2951

    ---------------------------------
    GBPUSD :
    HIGH 1.60485 LOW 1.60346 BID 1.60462 ASK 1.60470 CHANGE 0.04% TIME 08:21:11

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Upwards scenario: GBPUSD might find buyers above the important resistance level at 1.6058 (R1) (High of the 27/11/2012). Break here would open route towards to our next targets at 1.6067 (R2) and 1.6077 (R3). Downwards scenario: In regard to the descending movement, opportunities for bearish oriented traders is seen below the support level at 1.6033 (S1). Loss here would enable next supports at 1.6024 (S2) and 1.6013 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.6058, 1.6067, 1.6077
    Support Levels: 1.6033, 1.6024, 1.6013

    ------------------------
    USDJPY :
    HIGH 82.545 LOW 82.046 BID 82.380 ASK 82.385 CHANGE 0.32% TIME 08:21:12

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Upwards scenario: A violation of next resistance at 82.55 (R1) might call for a run towards to next target at 82.67 (R2) and any further appreciation would then be targeting 82.81 (R3). Downwards scenario: Near-term risks are directed to a drop back to the consolidation formation below the support at 82.28 (S1). In such case our intraday expected targets would be 82.14 (S2) and 82.00 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 82.55, 82.67, 82.81
    Support Levels: 82.28, 82.14, 82.00

    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Calendar | Forex Trading Strategies | ECN Trading Forex | FXCC )
     
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