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Daily Forex Market Analysis from FXCC Nov 08 2012

Discussion in 'Major Currency Crosses' started by alayoua, Nov 8, 2012.

  1. alayoua

    alayoua New Member

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    Daily Forex Market Analysis from FXCC Nov 08 2012

    Small chance of a ECB rate cut in November; BoE might introduce additional QE

    Market experts' views on the ECB and the BoE November monetary policy meetings are rather mixed, as recent economic data and the developments in the European debt crisis as well as the implications of the central banks' latest decisions leaves them with options for action this month. Almost all of the analysts contributing to the special forecast report agree that there is a very slight possibility of the ECB carrying out an interest rate cut at the upcoming meeting because, as Ilian Yotov writes, "with the OMT bond buying program plan already in place" the central bank can afford to wait for another month." Only Yohay Elam believes that "there is a good chance that the ECB will cut the rates by 0.25%" in November, in the light of "a small slide in inflation, the worsening economic situation, and fear of another credit crunch."

    As far as the BoE monetary policy meeting is concerned, the experts' projections range from "it should be interesting" to "as usual, a non event." The majority believes that there is a possibility of an extension of the asset purchase program by an additional 50 billion pounds. The upcoming BoE and ECB monetary policy decisions will be announced today at 12:00 and 12:45 GMT, respectively - FXstreet.com

    UPCOMING EVENTS :
    2012-11-08 **:00 GMT : United Kingdom. BoE Monetary Policy Statement
    2012-11-08 12:00 GMT : United Kingdom. BoE Asset Purchase Facility
    2012-11-08 13:30 GMT : European Monetary Union. ECB Monetary policy statement and press conference
    2012-11-08 13:30 GMT : United States. Trade Balance

    FOREX NEWS :
    2012-11-08 05:59 GMT : GBP/USD unchanged ahead of BoE meeting
    2012-11-08 05:13 GMT : EUR/JPY still under bear pressure; risk weighs
    2012-11-08 03:15 GMT : GBP/JPY breaks and holds below 128
    2012-11-08 03:02 GMT : Top-heavy NZD/JPY rests around 65.30

    ------------------------
    EURUSD
    HIGH 1.27802 LOW 1.27428 BID 1.27625 ASK 1.27631 CHANGE -0.07% TIME 08 : 18 : 29

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
    TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Long direction: Today in focus ECB Monetary policy statement and press conference at 13:30 GMT. If the market manage to climb above the resistance level at 1.2783 (R1) we expect next target to be achieved at 1.2803 (R2) and any further rise would then be targeting to 1.2824 (R3). Short direction: The low, formed yesterday is our reference point for further downtrend formation. Decline below the support level at 1.2736 (S1) might open road towards to lower targets, located at 1.2717 (S2) and 1.2698 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.2783, 1.2803, 1.2824
    Support Levels: 1.2736, 1.2717, 1.2698

    ---------------------
    GBPUSD
    HIGH 1.59921 LOW 1.59697 BID 1.59819 ASK 1.59826 CHANGE -0.02% TIME 08 : 18 : 30

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Sideway
    TREND CONDITION : Sideway
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

    Long direction: Important macroeconomic data release might push the market in any direction today as it is not stable. Next announcement in focus 12:00 GMT- BoE Asset Purchase Facility. If the pair manages to penetrate above the resistance level at 1.5994 (R1), we suggest next targets at 1.6009 (R2) and 1.6024 (R3). Short direction: We placed our next support level at 1.5963 (S1). Loss here might enable further bearish pressure and downgrade Cable towards to expected targets at 1.5949 (S2) and 1.5935 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.5994, 1.6009, 1.6024
    Support Levels: 1.5963, 1.5949, 1.5935

    ------------------
    USDJPY
    HIGH 80.003 LOW 79.775 BID 79.905 ASK 79.908 CHANGE -0.11% TIME 08 : 18 : 31

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
    TREND CONDITION : Sideway
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Long direction: USDJPY trades in gradual descending channel on the hourly chart. Climb above the next resistance level at 80.03 (R1) might provide market with sufficient power to attack next target at 80.11(R2) and any further rise would then be limited to 80.20 (R3). Short direction: Today instrument tested negative side and formed fresh low, which is our next support level at 79.77 (S1). Break here is required to enable next targets at 79.68 (S2) and 79.60 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 80.03, 80.11, 80.20
    Support Levels: 79.77, 79.68, 79.60

    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( ECN Forex Trading For Beginners | Automated Forex Trading Systems | Forex Automated Trading )
     
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