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Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Discussion in 'Forex Daily News & Outlook' started by Andrea FXMart, Feb 3, 2016.

  1. Andrea FXMart

    Andrea FXMart Member

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    Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: February 3


    The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) of the Japanese industrial sector reached 52.3 in opposition to the reported 52.4. The Investor's Business Daily (IBD) TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics (TIPP) Economic Optimism is at the reported median 47,8 published by the US and the New York ISM is at 718,9 in opposition to the preceding 716,6.

    The first support occurs at 120.40 and at 119.20 subsequently. The first resistance lies at 121.30 and at 122.20 subsequently.

    A sturdy and confirmed buy signal was found. The price is on top of the Ichimoku Cloud and it is over the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen creates a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen forms an upward motion. The ascending movement will be until the price is on top of the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is recovering.

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  2. Andrea FXMart

    Andrea FXMart Member

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    Fundamental Analysis: Ferbruary 4


    For January, the level of the US PMI Composite from IMS is at 53.5 whereas the previous value was 55.3 and the report was at 55.1 which was published by the United States. Moreover, the ADP Employment Change for January is at 205,000 whereas the preceding value was 267,000 and the report was 195,000 which was issued by the USA.

    In 2015, the unemployment rate of the Eurozone reduced by 0.8% to the level of 10.4%. The status apparently shows the ECB soft monetary policy. The low cost euro rate and liquidity added a support to the development of the real economy. The Euro area Retail Sales displayed 1,4% y/y and 0,3% m/m in opposition to the reported 1,5% y/y and 0,3% m/m. The EUR/USD pair signified a sturdy growth by the end of the trades.

    Also in 2015, the Gross Domestic Product of the UK increased by 2.17% in contrast to the growth of 2.85% in 2014. Simultaneously, the growth rate of the United States was 2.38% and 2.42% for the same period. The slowdown of the UK economy is more substantial compared in the USA which has been a negative factor for the currency. The GBP/USD pair strengthened.

    A somewhat unstable dynamics was formed by the dollar. The currency modulated in opposition to the yen which is still yearned even though a new wave of risk aversion arises. This week, the stock indices reduced which outstandingly losing ground as an aftermath of the descending of oil prices after the astonishing previous growth. In the midst of all these, buyers were interested in the Japanese yen.

    A non-manufacturing PMI has been issued. The index of EU displayed a 53.6 concurrently with the report. The similar index signified 53.2 in the USA, the report was 53.7. The Non-Manufacturing PMI of the UK occurred at 55.6 in opposition to the reported 55.3

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  3. Andrea FXMart

    Andrea FXMart Member

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    Technical Analysis for USD/CHF: February 5


    Mr. Thomas Jordan, head of the Switzerland National Bank restated that the franc was overbought and the Central Bank was all set to interpose if needed. Nevertheless, Mr. Jordan refused to tell if the bank had an intervention recently. Switzerland issued the Consumer Climate index Q1 forecast. The index is at -14.0 and the previous value was -18.0.

    The first support occurs at 0.9850 and at 0.9750 subsequently. The first resistance stands at 0.9960 and at 1.0100 subsequently.

    A sturdy and confirmed sell signal was found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen formed a descending motion creating a "Dead Cross". The descending motion will be until the price is below the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative area. The price is declining.

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    #3 Andrea FXMart, Feb 4, 2016
    Last edited: Feb 4, 2016
  4. Andrea FXMart

    Andrea FXMart Member

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    Fundamental Analysis: February 9

    The USA labor market attracts the attention of all traders through its statistics. The dollar still manage to stabilize its spot in spite of the fact that the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report has not stretched out even to a moderate status of what was reported 190,000 but only reflected 151,000 and the preceding value was re-assessed downward. But somehow, the trades were different directed on Monday.

    A solid leap of 0.5% from 0.0% was made by the US Average Hourly Earnings. In the meantime, having a sudden fall by 5.0%, the unemployment rate attained a recurrent low level of 4.9%. A very vital thing for the Fed is the increase of the wage rate, pertaining to the inflation acceleration prospects that results to the dollar disregarding the poor NFP and drew attention on the Hourly Earnings outcome. The EURO did not show any pivotal data. The EUR/USD showed a slight increase by the end of the trades.

    It is always a traditional bearish factor for British currency the bond yield spreads growth of the US and UK government as a result of the Friday's labor market release. However, the oil market bulls were extended which has a positive effect on the pound value. The pound/dollar returned upwards after a decrease.

    The publishing of the Monetary Policy Meeting minutes will be held on February 18. In the meantime, the unpredictability in the world markets have a negative effect on business sentiment as stated by the Bank of Japan chairman. The currency pair USD/JPY aggressively decreased.

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  5. Andrea FXMart

    Andrea FXMart Member

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    Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: February 10


    The outpouring of the capital from the British assets cause the government bonds yield remarkably lessen in opposition to the US Treasuries and the German bonds. In turn, this component gave a negative effect on the Cable. The Sterling were rather toned up.

    The first support occurs at 1.4400 and at 1.4320 subsequently. The first resistance stands at 1.4480 and at 1.4560 subsequently.

    A poor and confirmed buy signal was found. The price is on top of the Ichimoku Cloud and it is over the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen creates a descending motion and the Kijun-sen forms a horizontal motion, displaying a "Dead Cross". The ascending motion will remain as much as the price is over the Cloud.

    The MACD indicator is in an impartial location. The price is increasing. We may hope for the stabilization at the present levels. The descending bounce probable target is at 1.4400. If the price increases it will break over 1.4480.

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  6. Andrea FXMart

    Andrea FXMart Member

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    Fundamental Analysis: February 11


    Generally, the trader's adherence regarding the world's economic development loosen up and the energy sector's fate is a factor for a new wave of stock indices selling. Immense slate of companies' insolvency abreast with the Deutsche Bank difficult situations whose shares have dropped to the record lows, dispirited investors from trading high-risk assets.

    We must not rely on the remarkable growth of euro in the medium term due to the industrial production and trade balance poor statistics of Germany for December. In 2015, the industrial production signified an increase of 0.8% but decreased by 2.2%. It is not exceedingly profitable to have a sturdy euro as we find a stable negative trend. The EUR/USD reduced by the end of the trades.

    The UK issued the industrial production deliverance for the month of December. The index occurs at -1.1% m/m. The GBP/USD pair, in spite of poor manufacturing industry data, rapidly left the lows. The pair slightly grew.

    This week key event is part of the speech of Janet Yellen, an American economist, to Congress. Her perspective concerning the economy state and the monetary policy future shall determine additional prospects of the dollar which has weakened lately. The USD/JPY pair decreased by the end of the trades.

    Janet Yellen stated that their goal to expand the interest rates in short-term may loosen up due to the risks in the US economy. The China's economic innovation set a negative effect on the US economy and the trader's inflation anticipations keep on decreasing. The Fed chairman did not discuss about the probable interest rates increase yet the mentioned risks cause her to speak softly pointing out concerns regarding this year's Fed rate hikes.

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  7. Andrea FXMart

    Andrea FXMart Member

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    Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: February 12

    The GBP/USD pair paid no attention to the poor UK data. In January, the industrial production decreased by 1.1% m/m and 0.4% y/y against -0.1% and +1.0% and the former outcome at the level of -0.8% and +0.7%. The GDP of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) for January was approximately +0.4% against the preceding result of +0.6%.

    The first support occurs at 1.4480 and at 1.4400 subsequently. The first resistance stands at 1.4560 and at 1.4630 subsequently.

    The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is over the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen form a horizontal movement.

    The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price strengthened.

    The way to resistance level of 1.4560 will paved if the price breaks 1.4480 and up. If the price sets under the support 1.4400, the descending trend in the short term may proceed. The possible target is 1.4320.

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  8. Andrea FXMart

    Andrea FXMart Member

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    Fundamental Analysis: February 15

    A down fall of stock markets is an aftermath of concerns about the global economic outlook which also caused the US dollar to be under pressure last Friday. The demand for the yen and the euro heightened. And because of the celebration of Chinese New Year, the Chinese market was closed.

    The Japanese Finance Minister enlightened the investors that the fleet growth of Japanese yen could be a factor of the regulator's mediation. If there's a need to restrict the yen's growth, the bank will take all the necessary measures to make this happen. The exchange rate has been lately demonstrating quite sharp inconsistency that vary from the BoJ's financial policy, the Finance Minister stated.

    The Gross Domestic Product of the Eurozone (q/) stayed at the same level of 0.3%, as claimed by the Eurostat.

    On Friday, the US retail sales forecast for January was issued. The report was at 0.1%, the index occurred at 0.2%. In the initial estimate, the Michigan University Consumer Confidence Index for February was anticipated to increase by 92.6 from 92.0 in January. The index occurred at 90.7, much lesser than it was expected.

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  9. Andrea FXMart

    Andrea FXMart Member

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    Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: February 16


    On yesterday's trades, the EUR/USD pair decreased. Before this, the pair's progress was caused by the break out from the risky assets together with the opposite Eurozone data. Exceeding the report, the Eurozone economy increased by 0.3% q/q in the fourth quarter. Traders' attention were dragged by the ECB President Mario Draghi's performance yesterday. As stated by him, the economic restoration is proceeding at medium pace.

    The first support occurs at 1.1150 and at 1.1050 subsequently. The first resistance stays at 1.1260 and at 1.1350 subsequently.

    The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is over the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen creates a descending movement and the Kijun-sen forms a horizontal movement which creates a "Dead Cross".

    The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is falling.

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  10. Andrea FXMart

    Andrea FXMart Member

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    Fundamental Analysis: February 17


    A new week of trading has begun with a positive entry of the dollar. The purchases of the US currency give sustenance to the positive sentiment for the world stock exchange. And even the recurrence of China to the market after the holidays did not ruin the sentiments. In January, the imports and exports quantity from China reduced by 18.8% and 11.2%.

    The market in Europe has been out-powered by the banking sector shares. For the Euro, which is a funding currency, the "risk appetite" of the investors is a negative factor as it is increasing. The Germany issued the ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment for February. The index recent value was 10.2 and the report was 3.2 but it showed 1.0. The EUR/USD decreased.

    An inflation report for January was issued by the UK. A sturdy labor market indicated that the yearly CPI growth could be a bit better than the agreement report of 0.4%. In November, wages grew by 1.02% while the unemployment rate reduced by 5.1%. Nevertheless, the CPI occurred at the reported median 0,3%. The GBP/USD pair aggressively decreased.

    The negative macroeconomics data of Japan continue to regain. In the fourth quarter the Gross Domestic Product reduced by 0.4%. In 2015, the number of industrial manufacture has been falling for two consecutive years and the negative trend increased from 1.91% to 2.49%. In the beginning of the year, the aggressive build up of the yen brings further risks to the Japanese economy. The USD/JPY is stabilizing after a downtrend.

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  11. Andrea FXMart

    Andrea FXMart Member

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    Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: February 18


    The economic status of US signified critical signals again. The Housing Market Index fell from 60 to 58 and the Empire State Manufacturing Index displayed -16.64 against the reported -10.00, opposed to the expectations of traders. The Building Permits report for January was issued. The report was 1.204M while the index showed 1.202M. The Producer Price Index displayed 0,1% in opposition to the report of -0,2%.

    The first support occurs at 113.80 and at 113.00 subsequently. The first resistance lies at 114.60 and at 115.40 subsequently.

    A confirmed and sturdy sell signal was found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen create a horizontal movement showing a "Golden Cross". The descending motion will be until the price is below the Cloud. The MACD indicator is found in an impartial location. The price is declining.

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  12. Andrea FXMart

    Andrea FXMart Member

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    Technical Analysis for USD/CHF: February 19


    An aftermath of the Fed's soft comments and the positive report of the trade balance in Switzerland is the dollar being under pressure.

    The pair, after being low for four days was supported as the franc increased since the Switzerland's trade surplus turned to be noticeable as it grew higher contrary to the forecast. For January, the trade surplus reached 3.51 billion. The pair became stronger by the end of the trades.

    The first support occurs at 0.9859, the next is at 0.9750 subsequently. The first resistance lies at 0.9960 and at 1.0100 subsequently.

    The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen displays an ascending movement and the Kijun-sen forms a horizontal movement. The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is increasing.

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  13. Andrea FXMart

    Andrea FXMart Member

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    Fundamental Analysis: February 22

    The dollar unsuccessfully increase in spite the fact of positive stock markets sentiment and healthy labor market data of the USA. Since the reported inflation level was reached by China, investors were grateful about the scarcity of its negative forecasts. In addition, the dollar was also affected by the Fed's meeting minutes that was released on Wednesday. The traders have an implication about the tender tone of the regulator that there is an additional regress from December's plans.

    The inflation would stay at low levels according to the ECB minutes. Mario Draghi stated that by the next meeting on March 10, the ECB was all set to carry out further monetary policy easing. We once again come by the dissimilar expectations of a policies change of the two central banks. The EUR/USD pair grew a little bit by the end of the trades.

    For January, the UK issued retail sales release at the level of 2,3% m/m and 5,2% y/y in opposition to the reported 0,8 m/m and 3,6 y/y. In contrary to the previous month, the positive trend in the labor market permit us to hope for retail sales increase. In the past year, a growth of wages was recorded in the UK throughout the period of November to December. By the end of the trades, the GBP/USD pair displayed an increase.

    The Gross Domestic Product of Japan in 2016 was 1.0% to 0.8% to which the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) demote its inflation report. In the beginning of this year, the Japanese yen was stabilized by 5.1% in opposition to the dollar. An aftermath of this is the decrease in the national products competitiveness in foreign markets. In January, the trade deficit in Japan reached 645.9 billion which is 5 times more than in the last quarter of 2015. By the end of the trades, the USD/JPY pair reduced.

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  14. Andrea FXMart

    Andrea FXMart Member

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    Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: February 23

    The main topic yesterday was the referendum of the British to stick within the European Union or to depart from it which will be held on June 23, 2016. Discrepancies of opinions in British society become more noticeable as the topic goes on and on.

    The first support is at 1.4080 and at 1.4000 subsequently. The first resistance is at 1.4240 and at 1.4320 subsequently.

    A confirmed and a sturdy sell signal was found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen create descending movement. The descending motion will remain until the price is below the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is declining.

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  15. Andrea FXMart

    Andrea FXMart Member

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    Fundamental Analysis: February 24

    The week was started with the dollar's aggrandizement over its competitor. In spite the fact that the oil price is aggressively rising, the US currency together with the stock assets managed to increased. The Markit Manufacturing PMI for February caused the dollar to slightly decelerate which was dropped to its bottom-most level of 51.0 since October 2012. The preceding value was 52.4 and the reported was 52.3.

    In the 4th quarter, the Gross Domestic Product of Germany heightened unlike the recent quarter which correlates to the inflation rate in the 3rd quarter. This figure proved the preliminary evaluation. Hence, the Gross Domestic Product inflation rate reached 1.1% yearly. The EUR/USD pair became a bit stronger by the end of the trades.

    The possible Brexit caused the GBP/USD pair to decreased. It is clear that the vigorous pound selling is due to the declaration of Mayor Boris Johnson, London, where he stated that he is all out support for the British exit from the European Union. The holding of the referendum on June 23 this year was confirmed by Prime Minister David Cameron. Despite of these advancement, the Citibank put up its estimation of the Brexit probability from 20-30% to 30-40%. The GBP/USD pair aggressively decreased.

    On Tuesday, Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, Bank of Japan, stated that he did not see direct connection amid the monetary base growth and the inflation expectations. But still, Kuroda overvalue the effect of monetary policy major changes on public opinion. The USD/JPY pair is stabilizing.

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  16. capitalstars05

    capitalstars05 New Member

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    EURO (EUR/USD)
    Euro traded lower by 0.1 percent yesterday on the back of rising “Brexit” risks. Mayor of London, Boris Johnson, threw his support behind the UK leaving EU. This has left the Euro currency in a pressurized state.
    Moreover, disappointing release of economic data further dragged the currency lower. German business climate index dropped in January’16 as China’s cooling economy is hampering global trade and hurting German exporters in the process. In a recent statement made by J P Morgan, the ECB is likely to push deposit rates further negative. All the above factors acted as a negative factor for the shared currency.
    STERLING POUND (GBP/USD)
    Sterling Pound made a seven-year low and declined by 0.89 percent against the dollar yesterday after London’s Mayor, Boris Johnson, backed the campaign for Britain to leave the European Union in a June 23 referendum. Mr. Johnson is a fellow Conservative politician and is regarded as a contender one day to succeed Mr. Cameron.
    Moreover, the recent Inflation Report Hearings suggested that the timing for wage-growth was difficult to predict. Once all the current market turbulence passes, the investors should expect the economy to warrant a path for bank rate increase.
    JAPANESE YEN (JPY/USD)
    The Japanese Yen appreciated by 0.72 percent yesterday as upcoming G-20 meeting sessions has prompted the traders to play safe. Furthermore, the latest not-so-welcoming statement made by the Saudi Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi who effectively ruled out production cuts by major producers anytime soon led to fall in the crude oil prices.
    In a recent statement made by J P Morgan, the BoE is likely to push deposit rates further negative. All the above factors acted as a positive factor for the currency.

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  17. Andrea FXMart

    Andrea FXMart Member

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    Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: February 25

    In spite of the concerns that Brexit may affect the Eurozone, the euro still enfeebled this week. The ECB representative Mr. Jens Weidmann stated that prolonged uncertainty about the topic might have an impact to the global economy. Moreover, disregarding the consequences of soft monetary policy might cause an issue. He also added that the economic point of view was not as bad as it seemed. Furthermore, a poor growth was an issue for the monetary policy and the slow Eurozone regains should be proceeded this year and the next year.

    The first support occurs at 1.0925 and at 1.0800 subsequently. The first resistance lies at 1.1050 and at 1.1150 subsequently.

    A confirmed and sturdy sell signal was found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen creates a descending movement and the Kijun-sen forms a horizontal motion. The descending movement will remain until the price is below the Cloud.

    The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is retrieving.

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  18. Andrea FXMart

    Andrea FXMart Member

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    Fundamental Analysis: February 26

    The euro find its vigor to thrust the dollar down through the poor US data. The Markit Services PMI for February came out at the level of 49.8 contrary to the reported value of 53.5 and the recent 53.2. In the meantime, the expected slow decline of the primary housing market sales is -4.4% but slumped by 9.2%. The United States published the following reports: Initial Jobless Claims which is 272,000 contrary to the reported 270,000; Housing Prices which is 0,4% m/m contrary to the reported 0,5% m/m; Orders for Durable Goods wherein 1,8% m/m in opposition to the reported 0,2 m/m.

    In spite of the decrease in oil prices, worries for the irregularity of the banking system of China, as well as the Brexit issue, the demand for euro reduced. Concurrently, the probable exit of British from the European Union caused the pound to multi-year lows, which also push the euro as well. There were assumptions of the probable depolarization of the European Union caused by the parting of UK which also make the traders to not use the euro as a safe haven. The EUR/USD pair became a bit stronger by the end of the trades.

    Amidst the fact of the possible UK exit from the EU caused the GBP/USD pair to be pressured. The market was unpredictable in the expectation of the UK Gross Domestic Product data for Q4. Traders hoped for an increase by 0.5%. As a matter of fact, the second GDP estimate occurs at 0.5% q/q and +1.9 y/y. The GBP/USD pair is recovering.

    The yen strengthened again in a new wave of risky assets sales this week. However the dollar showed a growth against the yen on Tuesday’s trades.

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  19. Andrea FXMart

    Andrea FXMart Member

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    Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: February 29

    Since the inflation growth of Japan decelerated in January and became known, the Japanese yen decreased in opposition with the dollar. The issues of the regulator is apparently the cause of the slow-moving inflation as it could not regain the inflation to the target level of 2%. In addition, the positive report of USA GBP which is 1,0% contrary to the reported 0,4% has become the growth driver.

    The first support occurs at 112.20 and at 111.40. The first resistance lies at 113.00 and at 113.80 subsequently.

    A confirmed and a sturdy buy signal has been found. The price is over the Ichimoku Cloud and it is on top of the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen creates an ascending movement and the Kijun-sen forms a horizontal movement displaying a "Golden Cross". The descending movement will remain until the price is below the Cloud.

    The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is increasing.

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  20. Andrea FXMart

    Andrea FXMart Member

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    Fundamental Analysis: March 1

    The most expected occurrence for this week would be the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP), which is the final report that hopefully would change the mind of the Federal Reserve regarding the March rate hike. The Automatic Data Processing Report (ADP) will be published on Wednesday while the NFP will be on Friday.

    The low inflation jog the trader's memory that the ECB was probably tighten its policy in March which cause the euro to still be under pressure. The other Eurozone countries displayed a deflation while the Germany reflected an increase for February and advanced to 0.4% after decreasing to 0.8% in January which concerns the consumer prices. The Eurozone published consumer price index for February. The index displayed -02% y/y, the reported was 0.1% y/y. The EUR/USD pair declined by the end of the trades.

    The Brexit matter did not reduce its impact on the global financial markets. A statement from George Osborne, Finance Minister of Great Britain added a new impulse to panic. According to him, the British currency might fall and the country might encounter intense economic issues if it quitted from EU. The GBP/USD pair increase by the end of the trades.

    The Japan's industrial production report for January was published which cause the yen to become popular. Contrary to the previous month, the index increased. The industrial production growth was 3.7% whilst the economists reported a growth by only 3.3%. The USD/JPY pair decreased by the end of the trades.

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