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Daily Market Reviews by MAYZUS.com

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by MAYZUS.Neeraj, Apr 20, 2013.

  1. MAYZUS.Neeraj

    MAYZUS.Neeraj Member

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    MAYZUS Investment Company (formerly United World Capital) is proud to provide daily market reviews by the well-known financial expert – Mr. Arne Treholt, a former Political Secretary to the Minister of Shipping and Foreign Trade, then Deputy Minister of Law of the Sea of the Norwegian Royal Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He also held the position of Counselor for Economic Development and Social Affairs at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and was member of the Norwegian Mission to the United Nations, New York. At the moment Mr. Treholt is a Vice President and a Business Development Director of MAYZUS Investment Company.
     
  2. MAYZUS.Neeraj

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    18 APRIL 2013: RISKS ASSETS BROADLY SLIPS

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    Risks assets broadly slipped on Thursday following overnight drop in US and European equities on fears for global growth. Oil prices have dropped substantially. Brent crude fell two dollars trading below USD 98 a barrel. Iran, has asked for an emergency meeting in OPEC, the organization for oil producing states, to discuss the low oil prices as non-OPEC United States is pumping 7,2 million tons a day. This contributes to the imbalance between market demand and supply. Gold lid further as capital flow out of gold-backed-exchange-traded funds continues.

    US-Stocks fell in a broad market selloff yesterday. The decline in stock prices was led by a sharp drop in Apple which tumbled 5,5% to USD 402,80. Apple has fallen USD 250 since its peak last autumn. A key chipmaker, Cirrus, simultaneously presented a disappointing revenue forecast. This together with the slowing demand for Apple products, fuelled market worries about a weakening demand for iPhone and iPad. The financial sector was also hard hit by weaker than expected results from Bank of America.

    Wednesday’s losses represented the second day of big sell-off during this week. It adds to fears that the market is starting the pullback analysts have been speculating in for months. Expectations have outdistanced economic fundamentals. Monetary easing has additionally injected fresh speculative capital into equities. This development has led to stock rallies without roots in the real economy creating new bubbles.

    Investors’ optimism have been based on expectations of a stronger economic growth in China and a recovery in the US. There are positive signs in both markets, but the world economy is still dragged down by an ever deeper recession inside the Euro zone. The plunge in gold and metal prices and a simultaneous selloff of stocks bear striking similarities with the situation in 2008 where stock markets were running off from realities to end with a hard landing. Bankers’ wild speculations contributed to the misery which led to a financial crisis in the second half of the year where the liberal orientated economic market model was put at serious risk.

    Is history in the process of repeating itself?

    Nervousness and risk aversion has also plaid into the currency market where the euro come under pressure. Euro/USD fell from Wednesday high on 1.3172 to 1.3043 on talk of more monetary easing by the European Central Bank. USD/JPY trades marginally up at 98,03 indicating a continued slid in the yen and a new test on the symbolic 100 yen a dollar level. The Australian dollar is steady after trimming earlier losses due to the fall in gold and metals and a weaker growth in China.

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  3. MAYZUS.Neeraj

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    19 APRIL 2013: VOLATILITY REFLECTS BEARISH MOOD

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    Wall Street fell further yesterday after disappointing forecasts by eBay and other heavy weight US-companies. Present quarterly results raise increased doubt on the market’s recent strength. eBay dropped 5,9%, and Apple shares extended their slide from Wednesday breaking the USD 400 level. The S&P technology index fell 1,4% after two sharp declines earlier in the week. The volatility index, Wall Street’s fear index, gained 6,4 as a reflex of increased market nervousness. Other decliners included Morgan Stanley. The flagship bank fell 5,4% adding to the bearish mood.

    As global policymakers started their G-20 meetings in Washington yesterday there is growing concern about currency fluctuations and volatility. Key central banks are printing money and pumping new liquidity into markets. This tends to create more speculative bubbles than working places. The yen (JPY) fell broadly Friday morning after the Japanese Finance Minister stated that Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) aggressive monetary stimulus is aimed at defeating deflation. USD/JPY trades at 98,53 with the dollar raising 0,4%.

    As the G20 meeting ends today there are deep worries on what easily can develop into a currency war. In its semi-annual report on currency practices US put Japan on notice. Japan’s economic policies are watched closely to ensure that Japan is not aiming at devaluing the yen to gain competitive advantage. Competitors in South East Asia as South Korea are especially concerned. A rapid raise in dollar versus Yen at these level, seems, however, not likely. USD/JPY has already depreciated 20% since last November. A strong short term gain in USD/JPY might, however, occur after the G-20 meeting is over. G-20 is expected to confirm the pledge from February to avoid competitive currency devaluations.

    Euro/USD recovered to 1.3068 after a sharp drop during yesterday. In a meeting on Thursday the EU agreed to move ahead with a system of winding down banks without changing EU law. This would give the EU bank resolution mechanism a stronger legal basis. The resolution comes after a stormy debate in the European Parliament where both the EU Commission and the European Central bank came under heavy fire for their handling of the Cyprus banking crisis. In an interview the EU Commissioner for Economic and Monetary affairs, Olli Rehn, stated that changes to EU-treaties are more a long term goal than a condition for a banking union to operate.

    The recent plunge in gold prices have led to a rally in India and China to buy gold and silver coins and products. Retail buyers see the steep fall in prices as a buying opportunity. Gold trades at USD 1398 up from a bottom level on 1322 earlier in the week. Silver has rebounded from USD 22,76 to 23,46. It is, too, early, to say whether we are witnessing a more firm upward trend; or increasing prices shall be seen as a natural technical correction.

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  4. MAYZUS.Neeraj

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    22 APRIL 2013: GOLD REBOUNDS USD/JPY 99,84

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    Last week was dominated by an extraordinary fall of USD 250 fall in gold prices and heavy losses in other commodities. Gold demonstrated, however, strong resilience and staged a rebound. Gold is hundred dollar up from the bottom of USD 1322 an ounce last week. Copper is still weak. While Brent crude again trades above USD 100 a barrel. Strong retail buying in Indian and China strengthened gold which was seen as a buying opportunity. Gold reached the USD 1400 mark on Friday and trades at 1422 in Asia. Many investors have kept their strong faith in gold on expectations of high inflation and governments being unable to deal with it, and continues to buy gold.

    The G-20 meeting in Washington ended on Friday without any conclusive results. Since 2010 the group has turned from being a cohesive group of the world’s most important economies into a body that spends hours of negotiating the punctuation in a communique. Japan was the focus for attention. In spite of the fact that the Japanese yen, JPY, has depreciated 20% in relation to most currencies since November last year, G-20 accepted Japan’s explanation that its monetary policy is aimed at price stabilization and economic recovery. Its strong monetary easing does not intend to manipulate its exchange rate.

    As expected JPY as a result of the meeting, continued to slide in Asia this morning. USD/JPY reached 99,84 and is again licking the symbolic 100 level which most likely is going to be broken during the day encouraged by the Group of 20 endorsing of Japan’s reflationary policies. Following the meeting, players feel comfortable selling the yen further. Asian shares inched higher, but investors remained wary of volatility given the uncertainty of global growth prospects. Global stock markets might be on the verge of a selloff.

    The International Monetary Fund, IMF’s forecasts for the G-20 meeting were out of date no sooner than it was presented. Weaker US labor market figures and Chinese economic growth in the first quarter, make it necessary to downgrade growth forecasts for the world economy. The G-20 meeting also given another stark warning that economic forecasts is not any precise science. The Harvard economists Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart’s have since 2010 postulated that when debt reaches 90% of Gross Domestic Product, GDP, growth automatically fell. This postulate has been the basis for government’s austerity measures especially in the Euro zone.

    An Excel error put serious question marks with the evidence the economist have built their postulate on. For the first time in years it thereby is possible to put questions with postulates presented as science. The austerity measures in Europe are as most other economic theories are based on political attitudes. When such postulates end up in mass unemployment and social misery it might be right time to take a break and ask whether the austerity measures resulting in mass unemployment and social misery are the right prescribed medicine.

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  5. MAYZUS.Neeraj

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    23 APRIL 2013: ASIA FALLS ON WEAKER CHINESE PMI

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    Asian shares and other riskier assets lost ground on Tuesday after a preliminary reading showed weaker Chinese manufacturing growth in April. HSBC’s Purchasing Manager’s Index, PMI, fell in April and added to concerns about global growth prospects. HSBC’s report is the first economic indicator for the second quarter of 2013. It follows weaker-than-expected first quarter GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth and a contraction in export pointing to fragile global demand.

    April PMI-numbers fell to 50,5 from 51.6 in March. The numbers are nevertheless higher than February’s 50,4, and in in no way disastrous. The April PMI reinforces, however, market concerns about a stagnating and slowing Chinese economy. Stock market rallies especially in the United States have been based on expectations of a stronger US recovery and Chinese growth. The latest PMI takes some of this belief away and is a strong indication that the stock market rally might be over for now.

    Both Hong Kong and Shanghai stocks fell. The Shanghai SEC fell 1,4% and the Japanese Nikkei slipped 0,1% after surging up 2,2 percent on Monday; close to a five-years high. After USD/JPY reached 99,95 on April 11, a breakthrough of the 100 mark has been expected. Instead the USD fell back to 98,60 yen after reaching 99,90 in early trade yesterday. Weak US-housing data weighed in on the strength of the dollar. USD firmed against the Euro trading at 1.3043. Comments from the European Central Bank, ECB, suggest the bank might consider lowering interest rates in light of mass unemployment and low inflation.

    Gold has recovered strongly from last week’s tumble trading at USD 1427 an ounce. More gold outflows from exchange-traded funds stress, however, a weakened confidence in the precious metal and possible further drops. While gold is slightly up from Monday, silver is losing ground. Copper prices continue to fall with 0,6% on the London metal exchange. Brent crude stays above USD 100 a barrel, but crude futures are pointing down.

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  6. MAYZUS.Neeraj

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    24 APRIL 2013: APPLE LIFTS ASIA AFTER FALSE TWEET

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    Apple climbed 4,9% to USD 425,95 in after closing trade yesterday night after reporting strong second quarter earnings. Apple also unveiled plans to double the amount of capital returned to shareholders after for a long time being heavily criticized for not sharing excessive profits. The Apple quarterly report made stock markets in Asia to rally. Wall Street recovered Tuesday after initial sharp declines sparked by an Associated Press tweet about explosions in the White House.

    The false tweet by hackers of two explosions at the White House that injured US President Barack Obama, provoked a steep drop in stocks. The benchmark S&P index fell 16,6 points or close to one percent in 3 minutes. Index values of USD 136 billion were wiped out. Stocks quickly recovered minutes later. The tweet episode illustrates the advantages, but simultaneously the fall outs of an instantaneous pricing technology.

    Asian shares advanced on Wednesday on the back of Apple and other solid US quarterly earnings. The Euro came under pressure by soft German data which underscored the fragile state of the euro zone economy. The Asia-Pacific MSCI-index climbed 0,8%. The Australian stock index gained 1.4% along with a firmer Aussie dollar. The positive US numbers also gave a lift to oil and other commodities. Copper is up after several day’s decline. Brent crude trades at USD 100,54 a barrel. Gold (USD 1426) and silver (USD 23,15) prices are up after falling back during yesterday’s trading.

    The more positive tone in global equities markets seem to indicate that investors regard continued monetary easing by major central banks as justified. Monetary easing encourages investments in shares. But that also means that stock markets don’t reflect the real economic fundamentals. Equities continue to rally in spite of sluggish manufacturing surveys and weaker economic data from both the US and China, the two major engines in the global economy.

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  7. MAYZUS.Neeraj

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    25 APRIL 2013: NIKKEI EXTENDS ITS SHARP RALLY

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    The Japanese Nikkei index extended previous session’s sharp rally in early trade on Thursday. USD/JPY is steady on 99,41 and continues to lick at the magic 100 level. Euro/USD is 1.3046 up 50 points from yesterday when the Euro dipped under 1,30. The week picture inside the Euro zone points towards European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate cut next week. Both New York (NYMEX) and Brent crude are up. Brent trades at 102.18. Gold jumps 20 dollars to 1447 an ounce in Asian trading.

    The Japanese ally is driven by expectations that yen weakness will spur strong earnings for local firms. Nikkei is up 0,3% to 167,10. The Asian Pacific, MSCI-index is also up 0,3%, basically on the belief that weak global economic data will encourage central banks to keep their monetary easing economic stimulus policies. US durable goods orders for March were disappointing, and weighed in on the strength of the dollar which is weaker towards Euro, Yen and other major currencies.

    The growing expectations for an ECB interest rate cut helped offset the growth concerns highlighted by US durable goods. Durable goods orders posted its biggest drop in seven months in March. Together with a survey highlighting increasing pessimism among German business leaders in April, future forecasts are bearish. The sentiment in Europe is somewhat strengthened by falling bond yields in indebted countries like Italy and Spain. A possible end to the two months political deadlock in Italy, has further strengthened. A 37 years old has been appointed new Premier and the tenure for their 87 years old President is prolonged.

    The US government will on Friday present its report on gross domestic product, GDP. The report is expected to show that the economy grew at a 3% annual in the first quarter rebounding from a 0,4 % gain in the final three months of 2013. For the current quarter an expansion of 1,5% is expected. Raising oil and copper prices indicate a turn towards more positive market sentiment. Gold which fell to USD 1322 after losing 250 dollars in two days, have recovered strongly to 1447.

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  8. MAYZUS.Neeraj

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    26 APRIL 2013: GBP, GOLD AND SILVER STRONGLY REBOUND

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    British sterling (GBP) has recovered strongly from the bottom levels of 1.50 reached earlier in April. GBP/USD trades at 1.5432 on better than expected job and economic data, indicating a rebound in GBP’s future. Precious metals are again shining. Silver futures rose 6,5% and trades at USD 24.40 an ounce, two dollars up from the bottom last week. Gold peaked on USD 1476, particularly on Chinese and Indian retailers who see the steep fall in precious metals as a buying opportunity. Also oil and copper prices are higher.

    The improved sentiment in commodities and precious metals comes on the top of better US jobless figures. There were 11 000 fewer reported jobless seekers than the week before. The new data is not impressing. The expected 350 000 jobless turned out to be 339 000. The head of the Federal Reserve, FED, Ben Bernanke, dampened optimism stressing market’s volatility and need for emergency measures. While the jobless numbers created a Wall Street rally helped by good quarterly earnings reports, Bernanke talked the equity markets down. Nasdaq and S&P rose modestly nevertheless up for 5th day in row reflecting a stock market running ahead of economic realities.

    Asian shares rose again on Friday on the upbeat US labor market data. Samsung posted a record quarterly results in line with expectations ahead of Galaxy S4 debut. The fall in Japanese Yen helped SONY to deliver its best profit in years. The Asian Pacific MSCI-index was up 0,3% reaching a six week high. Analysts see a continued upside in Asia and predict that the stock markets could raise another 10 – 15%. Robust quarterly earnings had Shanghai advance 1 percent. Australian shares benefited by high company yields compared with other countries and was up 0,2%.

    The Bank of Japan (BOJ) predicted that the set 2% inflation target will be met in two years. USD/JPY hovers around 99 - 99,50 still unable to reach the 100 mark. Expectations that the European Central Bank, ECB, will lower interest rates from 0,75% at its meeting next week weakened the Euro and strengthened European equities. Market beliefs that global economic stimulus will remain in place helped risk asset markets rebound from a sharp sell-off earlier in April triggered by disappointing US and Chinese manufacturing data.

    The German Minister of Finance, Wolfgang Schaeuble, lashed out at the European Commission President, Jose Manuel Barroso, yesterday telling lawmakers that the euro zone’s problems had nothing to do with strict budget discipline. He encouraged “somebody to tell Barroso that”. Schaeuble’s remarks came on the top of a bitter strife between European leaders on the effects of austerity measures hitting especially the periphery of Southern Europe. Germany which favors “balanced budgets” are seen as the major culprit for the austerity measures.

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  9. MAYZUS.Neeraj

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    29 APRIL 2013: GERMANY'S DAX ADDED 4.8% FOR THE LAST WEEK

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    Leading stock indexes of Europe and the USA on Friday generally decreased - the British FTSE-100 decreased for -0,26%, the German DAX lost -0,23%, the French CAC lost -0,79%, the American Dow Jones added just +0,08%, S&P500 decreased for -0,20%, Nasdaq Composite lost -0,33%. Accordingly to the published statistics on Friday, growth rates of gross domestic product of the USA in the first quarter of the current year were accelerated, but were slightly worse than market expectations. At the same time the index of consumer confidence in the USA, counted by Michigan University, decreased, but at a size smaller, than was predicted.

    As a whole for the past week the American share indexes added 1,1-1,9%, and European rose by 2,2%-4,8%. The German DAX which has added 4,8%, against improvement by the authorities of Germany of forecasts on growth rates of economy became the favorite of week within the European platforms. Bundesbank (the Central Bank of Germany) in the April’s review predicted growth restoration in economy of Germany in the second quarter against situation improvement on a labor market.
    Trading session in Asian stock exchanges started without any uniform dynamics, Chinese and Japanese stock exchanges are closed today in connection with national holidays "Labor Day" and "Showa Day" respectively.

    At the same time, Australian ASX where the raw materials companies are the major part of the index, remains to be in a green zone, despite the fact that on Friday evening there was quite sharp depreciation of metals. Mainly support is given by the banking sector. In particular the extracting companies Newcrest Mining and BHP Billiton lose around 0,5% of the capitalization while National Australia Bank and Australia and New Zealand Banking Group banks add 1,3% and 0,8% respectively. Significantly worse than the market looks the Kingsgate Consolidated gold mining company, which is losing -14,5%, because of the statement of intention to decrease expenses in connection with a collapse of prices on precious metals.

    Today the statement concerning prospects of development of economy of the Asian-Pacific Region was made by representatives of IMF, having reported about fall in forecast on gross domestic product growth from 5,9% to 5,7%. Also experts noted remaining probability of slowdown of the Chinese economy.

    Prices of precious metals continue its positive correction after steep falls we have seen not so long time ago, gold is increasing for 1,07% and is traded on a level of 1469,16. Silver is up for 1,88% on a level of 24,20.

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  10. MAYZUS.Neeraj

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    30 APRIL 2013: S&P500 INDEX AGAIN APPROACHED ABSOLUTE MAXIMA

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    In the first day of the week the index of the wide market S&P500 closely approached recently established historical maxima and now has chance to continue an ascension on new heights. Following the results of the yesterday’s trading session the S&P500 index increased by 0,72%. Quotations stopped at the level of 1593,61 points. To an absolute record there was not enough one point only. As the closest level of resistance which can be reached within an ascending trend, we will allocate a level of 1610.

    Bulls also were positive in the light of coming meetings of key central banks – on the 1st of May will be finished the next meeting of FRS, and on May 2 the decision on an interest rate will be made by European Central Bank. From FRS the investment community expects comments on recent deterioration of macroeconomic statistics and, respectively, promises of extension of QE at least until the end of the year; from the European central bank wait fall of an interest rate which ripened owing to lack of any signs of revival of economy of the region. Speculative expectations of cheap money as usual maintain appetite to risk, and Monday didn't become an exception.

    The trading session at Asian stock markets takes place today with mainly positive dynamics, continuing yesterday's growth over the ocean, but the Japanese market which has come back from days off, looks worse than the colleagues. One of the reasons is dynamics in the currency market where USD/JPY pair continues movement under level 98, after it was once again rolled away from a level of 100 last week.

    Also a big block of macro statistics has been issued today in Japan, mainly positive, however this factor is mainly ignored by Japanese investors. In particular unemployment rate decreased in March to 4,1%, expenses of households grew by 5,2% in annual calculation, the production PMI index raised to 51,1, and retails of the largest networks grew by 2,4%. Only an industrial production was worse than expectations and grew for March only by 0,2% at forecasts of growth for 0,4%.

    In Australia, meanwhile, continues growth of the banking sector, and yesterday's leaders of growth - National Australia Bank and Australia and New Zealand Banking Group add today another 2,5% and 4,5% respectively.

    Prices of oil and precious metals are weaker this morning. Brent is on a level 103.55$ per barrel – loosing 0.25%. Gold and silver are on a levels 1460.93 and 23.98 respectively.

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  11. MAYZUS.Neeraj

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    01 MAY 2013: THE RISE IN PRICES FOR HOUSES IN USA BECAME MAXIMUM SINCE 2006

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    In Russia, Europe, China, Hong Kong, South Korea, Brazil the trading session isn't held today in connection with national holidays.

    Following the results of the yesterday's session in America the Dow Jones index grew by 0.14%, S&P - for 0,25%, Nasdaq - for 0,66%. As a result Dow Jones value reached level 14 839,80 points, S&P - 1597,57 points, Nasdaq - 3328,79 points.

    The index of the London stock exchange FTSE 100 fell to 0,43% and was closed at the level of 6430,12 points. The index of the Parisian stock exchange CAC 40 decreased by 0,31% and was closed at the level of 3856,75 points. The index of the Frankfurt stock exchange DAX rose by 0,51% and at closing made 7913,71 points.

    Prior to the yesterday’s trading session opening - the prices of houses in 20 largest American cities were published – the indicator grew by 9.3% that became the best indicator since 2006, and was the positive driver for traders.

    Today China will present official statistics on the production. As a rule, the release of these data is accompanied by volatility growth in the FX market, and especially it will be actual for currencies of the countries of the Pacific region, in particular, for Australian dollar.

    In the evening, FRS will report the decision on an interest rate. Here everything is quite expected; despite statements of different persons from FRS that is time to reflect on the beginning of turning of the QE program, the policy of ultra-cheap money, most likely, will remain in the foreseeable future.

    Prices for oil are decreasing second day in a raw, Brent is traded on a level of 101.25$ loosing 0.77%. Prices for precious metals are stable second day, gold is on a level of 1472.01 and silver on a level of 24.19.

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    02 MAY 2013: ECB INTEREST CUT SEEMS LIKELY TODAY

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    Growing doubts over the health of global economies pushed Asian stocks lower on Thursday after disappointing US economic data pushed Wall Street down. Dow Jones industrial fell 0,92% adding to doubts over the strength of the world’s biggest economy. Slow Chinese demand puts new question marks on China’s economic recovery. The European Central Bank (ECB) is meeting later today. ECB is expected to cut interest rates down to a low of 0,5% in an effort to take the Euro zone out of recession.

    The Asian Pacific MSCI-index fell 0,5 percent with Australian shares leading the decline. Miners dragged the AXJO index down 0,8% on fears of lesser Chinese appetite for commodities. The Chinese PMI (Purchasing Managers index) fell in April, but the upward trend continues. It is, however, fragile and has lost momentum due to signs of pausing in the US economy. Market sentiments are split between growth prospect worries and support for sustained monetary stimulus.

    There are also worries that a weaker US economic growth may prompt profit taking in Asian equities. Asia has strongly outperformed earlier this year, USD/JPY is trading steady at 97,24 unable to break through the psychological important 100 level. Some analysts expect that yen is going to continue to depreciate after a short breathier. A US trading at 110 yen towards a dollar is perceived.

    The dollar has recovered from lows against a basket of six major currencies, DXY, but stayed at lowest levels since late February. The dollar weakness lifted the euro to a two month high of USD 1,3243 on Wednesday. It trades steady around 1.3178 in the opening sessions in Asia. Weak credit demand in the euro zone shall most likely lead to further contraction in the region. This points along with disappointing German PMI in April towards an interest rate cut when ERCB meets later today.

    Growing unemployment in the Southern European periphery of Europe and slower growth in Germany, have led to a renewed debate on the austerity measures carried through by The ECB and EU-commission with Germany as the driving national engine. A leading critics of the austerity measures, the economic Nobel laureate, Paul Krugman, says in a recent article that the austerities is far from any sound economics and purely dictated by leading bankers and politicians’ political prejudices. The results are catastrophic for the economy as well as human beings.

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  13. MAYZUS.Neeraj

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    03 MAY 2013: ECB RATE CUTS SUPPORT SHARES

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    Euro/USD lost more than 100 points after the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to cut interest rate with 0,25 % to a historical low of 0,50. The Euro fell immediately on the announcement and trades at 1.3074. The decision received cheers from stock markets which rallied in early Asian trade on Friday. In the US Wall Street was helped by a sharp fall in last week’s jobless claims which fell to its lowest level in five years.

    The smaller number of Americans seeking jobless benefits claims was seen as a sign of a healing job market in spite of the presentation a ray of weak economic data lately. US stocks were also helped by a narrowing trade gap in March. The fact that both imports and exports fell, indicate, however, weaker demand, and tells of weakening growth momentum both in the US and globally.

    Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped with 18 000 last week to seasonally adjusted 324 000. The claims report runs counter to a number of signals of economic activity softening in March and April. The data has no direct bearing on the Labor Department’s monthly employment report which is expected later today. It suggests, however, that employers are feeling less pressure to lay off workers even if they have cut back on hiring.

    Oil, copper and gold prices traded higher with Brent crude up 2% to 102,65. The US stock rally was led by tech shares. Facebook delivered better than expected and rose 5%. The ECB decision to cut rates for the first time in 10 months helped market sentiment and bolstered the content of the Federal Reserve (FED) statement Wednesday. FED will continue to buy bonds to keep interest low and spur growth. If necessary FED kept the door open for stepping up the purchases. Also the ECB kept options for further action to stimulate the economy.

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  14. MAYZUS.Neeraj

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    06 MAY 2013: US JOB REPORT EASES FEARS

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    The US stock markets reached new highs on Friday. The S&P 500 index smashed through the 1600 mark for the first time in history. All 30 companies on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose as that benchmark crossed 15 000 for the first time after better than expected jobs reports. Non-farm payrolls increased with 165 000 jobs in April. Analysts forecast was 140 000. The unemployment rate fell to 7,5%, the lowest level since December 2008. Asian stocks spurred higher Monday morning on the US job data.

    The better than expected jobs report eased fears about the health of the world’s largest economy which remains on a path of modest, but resilient growth. The Federal Reserve (FED) indicated last week that it is prepared to increase the USD 185 Billion –a-month pace of its third round of quantitative easing. The new figures mean there is little chance for such an increase. The job creation in April was heavily weighted towards the service sector. The production side with construction was shedding 6000 jobs. There is also a dip in average weekly hours from 34,6 to 34,4.

    The US job data follow central banks meetings last week. While the US FED expressed readiness to increase monetary easing, the European Central Bank (ECB) informed that if necessary it would consider taking deposit rates negative. The mere fact that the key central banks aired such an opportunity was enough to sustain the rally in stocks, bonds and credit demonstrated by the new records on Wall Street and the positive sentiments in Asia this morning. Decreasing rates meaning that stocks are the most attractive alternative investment.

    Oil prices have also been given a boost by the US jobs reports. New York crude (NYMEX) is for the first time in weeks trading above USD 96 a barrel. Brent crude is at 104,50. Copper is in the limelight after a 6,5% rally to USD 7 270 on Friday. Copper has fallen nearly 20 percent in the past three months on worries of a slowing world economy. Japanese yen is falling against the dollar trading at 99,08 yen to a dollar. Euro/USD is at 1.3122.

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  15. MAYZUS.Neeraj

    MAYZUS.Neeraj Member

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    07 MAY 2013: BULLISH STOCK MARKETS SET FOR NEW RECORDS

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    US and Asian stocks reached new record highs as the Japan’s Nikkei average soared 2,8% on Tuesday morning. For the first time since June 2008 the Nikkei broke above 14 000 as the market played catch-up from an extended holiday. The strong US jobs data eased concern over the health of Japan’s biggest export market. Japanese exporters as Toyota, Honda and Sony led the rally jumping more than 3%.

    In the US the S&P led by Apple and financials pushed further above 1600. The S&P has gained 13,4% since the beginning of the year. Decent earnings together with monetary easing and low interests rates have helped the stock markets to new records. As long as the world’s leading central banks are providing markets with liquidity the stock rally is most likely going to continue at least in the short term.

    Asia is today focusing on Australia where markets are waiting for the Central Bank of Australia’s decision on interest rate. Analysts are split on whether the interest rate would be lowered by a quarter point to a record low of 2,75%. A jump in stock prices are then predicted. Australian stocks fall 0,4% prior to the central bank’s verdict. The Asian Pacific, MSCI-index, was as the Korean Kospi slightly down after big upward jumps on Monday.

    In the currency market the Euro is on the defensive Euro/USD trading at 1.3077. The head of the European Central Bank (ECB), Mario Draghi, stated yesterday that ECB is watching economic data and is ready to take further action if needed. The upcoming German elections in September make changes in the austerity policies unlikely in spite of Germany being under pressure from other EU-members.

    While gold, USD 1465, is losing ground on continued outflows in holdings at the world’s largest gold backed exchange traded funds, SPDR Gold Trust, crude and copper are steady. Brent crude continues to trade above USD 105 a barrel.

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  16. MAYZUS.Neeraj

    MAYZUS.Neeraj Member

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    08 MAY 2013: ASIAN SHARES RISE ON CHINESE TRADE DATA

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    The positive sentiment in global equity markets received a new boost on better than expected Chinese trade data. Asian shares rose to their highest level in two years after China reported a 14,7% export increase in April. Imports were up 16.8% with a trade surplus of USD 18,16 Billion for the month. The Chinese data comes on top of new Wall Street highs with Dow Jones closing above 15 000. In Germany industrial orders showed unexpected strength last week and pulled the Dax index into record territory.

    The Australian Reserve Bank became yesterday the last central bank to cut interest rate creating an opening for parity between Australian and US dollars. Share prices are helped by decreased bond returns. The cut in interest rates play into the hands of equities. The Asian Pacific MSCI-index rose 0,8% and reached the highest level since August 2011. Global market sentiments were helped by strong quarterly results by one of the world leading banks, HSBC, and a profit jump for the US Disney. Cut in the labor seems to be the driving force behind HSBC’s result.

    The Chinese trading numbers are likely to ease recent concerns about weakness in the recovery in the world second-largest economy. Doubts remain, however, over real demand in China, and the accuracy of their figures. Oil and commodity prices are trading firmer after the Chinese data. A successful bond trade in Portugal supported the upbeat mood and strengthened the Euro. Euro/USD is steady at 1.3080. There is still no breakthrough in USD/JPY which sticks to the 99 yen a dollar level. USD/British sterling, GBP is trading at 1.5479 slightly down from yesterday.

    Gold continues to be under pressure. Gold lost one percent during yesterday’s trade. It has recovered to 1455. Gold backed exchange traded funds fell to their weakest level since 2009 indicating that investors money is leaving gold for booming stock markets. This suggests that the super cycle of commodities might be over and that tough times might lie ahead especially for metals. Analysts see that commodity prices in the future probably may be more determined by normal supply and demand balances than by speculative money flows.

    Gold traders take an opposite opinion. The present equity boom is driven by low interest rates and central banks money printing. This will create inflationary pressure and challenges for the market system as witnessed by the financial crisis in the autumn of 2008. In such an environment investors will still use gold and precious metals as a hedge. Gold bulls, therefore, stress that a rebound to the USD 1700 level is most likely also in a shorter term perspective.

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  17. MAYZUS.Neeraj

    MAYZUS.Neeraj Member

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    09 MAY 2013: STOCKS RALLY AS MAJOR CURRENCIES LOSE DIRECTION

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    Global equity markets continue to rally as major currencies have lost a clear direction. Encouraging global data and Wall Street’s extended record rally, took Asian shares to a new two-year peak Thursday morning. Australia presented strong unemployment numbers. While 50 100 new jobs were added in April, the South Korean central bank made a surprise 0,5% interest cut lowering the interest rate to 2,5%. These steps further cemented the positive mood in global markets.

    Lower interest rates and central banks increased money printing have created spare liquidity which moves into stocks. The Japanese monetary easing brought the Nikkei index within striking distance of a five-years highs outperforming its global peers. Stocks remain the favored asset class among investors as monetary easing depresses return on bonds. Unclear prospects regarding the world economic growth weigh negatively on commodity prices. Commodities trade without any clear direction with precious metals temporarily falling out of favor with investors.

    In contrast to the clear uptrend in global equities major currencies have lost direction. This is the case with Japanese yen, JPY, which depreciated continuously since November last year and depreciated and lost 20 – 25% against most currencies. The last weeks USD/JPY has traded in the interval between 97 – 99 yen a dollar unable to make a major breakthrough and jump above the psychological 100 level.

    Investors which made huge profits betting on big cash currency positions earlier this year go into equities which regardless of economic fundamental outlooks are strongly buoyed by monetary easing. As long as central banks keep their accommodative stance the uptrend in stocks would continue. Stocks were also helped by the upbeat US unemployment figures last Friday, Chinese trading data and more promising prospects for the German industry.

    In spite of the economic outlook for the Euro zone continues to be dismal, the Euro remains resilient. Euro/USD trades at 1.3160. The economic problems in Europe are indeed serious, but traders have recently burnt their fingers on going short on Euro and stay away. The Euro seems to have discounted eventual bad news, and the balance of payment and real interest rates are no lower than anywhere else. There is no clear conviction among traders as to the timing of Euro weakness. In this financial climate oil prices are keeping up steady. Brent is hovering around USD 104 a barrel. Gold price which fell to USD 1449 on Tuesday, has picked up and trades at 1474.

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  18. MAYZUS.Neeraj

    MAYZUS.Neeraj Member

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    10 MAY 2013: YEN BREAKS THROUGH 100

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    After flirting with the 100 yen to a dollar mark for weeks USD finally smashed through this psychological important hurdle indicating further weakness in the Japanese yen. USD/JPY traded as low as 101.20 early Friday, down two percent from Thursday’s 98,75, the lowest level seen in four and a half years. The record low represents a victory for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s “Abenomics” and his deliberate efforts to weaken the yen and strengthen economic growth through monetary easing.

    In an effort to counter the weaker yen and boost its own competitiveness both Australia and South Korea have during this week cut their interest rates, sparking what seems as a currency war among Asian trading partners. Both countries cited their strong currencies as one of the reasons for their 0,5% cuts. A South Korean finance ministry official said Friday that Seoul was worried about the pace of the yen’s decline. The yen has depreciated 25% since the decline started in October/November.

    Japan economy minister Akira Amari reiterated as Japan did during the recent G-20 meeting, that Tokyo has no intention to manipulate currency levels. Analysts expect a further fall in yen as dollar/yen finally have gotten over the psychological hurdle of 100. A continued downward pressure on the currency was underscored by data published on Friday showing that Japanese investors finally have reversed their relentless selling of foreign bonds. Japanese investors have over the last 12 weeks been net sellers of foreign bonds.

    The Nikkei index soared to a four and half year high, up 6,5% only this week. The US dollar was buoyed by new strong jobless claims. The last weekly report published yesterday confirm the stronger than expected monthly nonfarm payrolls for April when jobless claims fell to its lowest level in five years. Signs of a steady US recovery has already could fuel speculation that the Federal Reserve (FED) might scale back its aggressive quantitative easing.

    After reaching 99,95 in early April the USD has stalled one month against the yen. EURO/JPY simultaneously rose to 131,91, its highest since January 2010. There is no major changes in oil prices, copper and other commodities. Gold fell back from its high on USD 1474 and has recovered to 1462 in early Asian trading.

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  19. MAYZUS.Neeraj

    MAYZUS.Neeraj Member

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    13 MAY 2013: FED WARNS AGAINST EXCESSIVE SPECULATION

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    A stronger dollar weighed in on commodities across the board during Friday and Monday morning trades. USD has continued to strengthen towards the Japanese yen. After the break through of the critical 100 hurdle USD is trading at 101,90 yen a dollar. The weak yen is giving Japanese equities a strong boost while other Asian stocks are trading lower. Both oil and gold prices fluctuated wildly during Friday’s trade. Euro/USD trades at 1,2973.

    Brent crude was down to USD 101 a barrel on Friday, but has recovered to 103.10. Gold which dipped to USD 1415, trades at 1431. The drop in commodities prices weighed on the Australian dollar which eased to an 11 month low of 0,991. The G-7 finance ministers meeting on Friday cemented the firmness of the dollar when Japan avoided criticism for its bold reflationary policies. “Abenomics” has led to a steady decline in the Japanese yen which improves exporters earning prospects and underpins the export-reliant Japanese economy.

    Japan as for years been urged to revive its economy. When Japan takes action few countries are in a position to complain. Other federal banks as the US Federal Reserve (FED) and Bank of England have as other central banks printed money as the Bank of Japan is doing now. The steep 25% depreciation of the yen since last November is nevertheless creating nervousness about to the health of financial markets and the global economy. Retail data from US and China to be presented later this week, are therefore going to be studies cautiously.

    FED Chairman Ben Bernanke raised these concerns during a speech in Chicago late Friday. Bernanke warned against excessive risk-taking in financial markets in a hunt for profit. Bernanke saw the strong drive in the dollar as the latest manifestation of a desperate global hunt for yield. Bernanke expressed worry that banks due to low interest rates and fall in bond prices, are resorting to excessive speculation, highlighting the danger that easy monetary policy could create a new asset bubble with stock prices running ahead of market fundamentals.

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  20. MAYZUS.Neeraj

    MAYZUS.Neeraj Member

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    14 MAY 2013: US RETAILS BOOST GLOBAL MARKETS

    DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
    by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


    The dollar took a breather this morning after reaching near a five week-high against a basket of major currencies, DXY, on Tuesday. The greenback was boosted by surprisingly strong US retail sales in April which saw a rise in in households buying of cars, building materials and a range of other goods. The data pointed to the underlying strength in the US economy and led to increased optimism about a recovery in the world’s largest economy.

    After rallying on Friday and Monday the USD took a pause and retracted 0.3% against the currency basket. Euro/USD trades at 1.3010 and USD/JPY stands at 1.0156. The slightly weaker dollar helped stabilizing commodity prices with gold gaining one percent to USD 1445 recouping losses from previous sessions. The stronger dollar is based on a recovery scenario for the US economy. A sluggish growth in emerging countries have kept commodity prices low.

    The prospects for a firmer US recovery are likely to have a positive effect on the demand for commodities. There are also small signs of stability inside the struggling Euro zone. During yesterday’s bond auction Italian bonds fell to its lowest level since January. Investors backstopped by guarantees from the European Central Bank (ECB) and brushed off concerns about Italy’s political and economic troubles, pointing towards a normalization in financial markets.

    After a two-day losing streak, Asian stocks again rose this morning. The Asian-Pacific MSCI-index is up 0,3% with Australian and South Korean stocks also climbing. The Japanese Nikkei continues to rise 0,2%. Australian stocks were helped by a weaker Aussie. Oil prices are slightly up from yesterday. US crude futures, NYMEX, trade at USD 95,41 a barrel. Brent crude is up 0,1% to 102,90. Wall Street ended flat yesterday after recent highs.

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