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Forex Market Reports from Investment-solutions.org

Discussion in 'Forex Daily News & Outlook' started by timbecks777, Feb 10, 2010.

  1. timbecks777

    timbecks777 New Member

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    JPY

    The yen fell against high-yielding units in Asia Tuesday as an upturn in Chinese stocks helped reduce risk aversion, prompting investors to buy back riskier currencies such as the euro.
    In tandem with the euro, the Australian dollar, the Swiss franc and the pound also advanced against the yen.
    But dealers say the Japanese unit could make a turnaround in the near term amid lingering sovereign debt worries in euro-zone nations.
    Although the European Union is slated to hold a summit on Thursday, traders expect the organization to fail to offer detailed plans on how to deal with the fiscal crisis in Greece, Spain and Portugal.
    Elsewhere, the greenback rose against the yen after Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said earlier in the day the discount rate the Fed charges banks for emergency loans could go up fairly soon as part of its plans to end its liquidity programs.
    The remarks from the Fed official were translated as a sign that the U.S. central bank could lift its policy rate anytime soon, pushing the dollar higher versus the yen.
    Still, the U.S. unit is unlikely to keep rising as the economic outlook remains uncertain and stocks are weak. Market participants are focused on comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who is set to appear before House lawmakers Wednesday.

    EUR

    The euro rallied against the dollar and the yen Tuesday, breaking a four-day losing streak, on the belief that European Union members are working towards helping fiscally embattled Greece.
    The British pound, the Canadian and Australian dollars and other risk-sensitive currencies also rose as the expectation Greece will get assistance dealing with its fiscal dilemma helped calm investors' broad worries about risk.
    Europe's common currency ceded some gains in afternoon trading after the German government said no decision has been made on aid for Greece.
    German Finance Ministry Spokesman Michael Offer said attendees at an informal summit held by the European Union in Brussels Thursday would work on further steps to help Greece shore up its public finances and restore calm in financial markets.
    Separately, a German government source said Germany is considering what it could contribute to an EU contingency plan to provide financial backing for Greece.
    News reports throughout the day stirred speculation the EU was preparing a package to back up Greece after the country racked up budget deficits four times the EU's 3% limit. The Greek budget shortfalls had not only hurt the euro but threatened to drag down the government bonds of other financially challenged euro-zone members such as Portugal and Spain.
    Whether or not there ultimately proves to be substance behind the talk, the bailout chatter served as a trigger for speculative investors to take profits on bets against the single currency.
    The euro's initial advance began during Asian trading hours on talk that European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet was leaving a central bankers gathering in Sydney earlier than planned to attend the EU meeting in Brussels. However, a spokeswoman for the European Central Bank clarified that Trichet had a long-standing commitment to attend the meeting.
     
  2. timbecks777

    timbecks777 New Member

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    Japanese institutional investors nervous about the debt crisis in southern Europe could begin pulling out of their overseas investments, pushing up the Japanese yen in coming months, analysts say.
    Each year, currency traders speculate that Japanese exporters will repatriate their foreign investment proceeds into yen to dress up their books ahead of the March 31 fiscal year-end.
    While such major repatriation hasn't materialized in past years, some analysts say this year could be different.
    For one thing, investors already are selling their overseas debt as worries about the European debt picture mount.
    Japanese investors have increased their net holdings of foreign bonds by Y6 trillion a year in recent years. In January, however, Japanese institutional investors sold a net Y250 billion of foreign bonds, the first month of net sales since March 2009, according to flows data from the Ministry of Finance.
    A breakdown by currency isn't yet available for January, but in December Japanese investors sold net Y1.1 trillion of euro-denominated bonds while buying net Y668 billion of dollar-denominated bonds. All told, Japanese investors net sold Y142.8 billion of foreign bonds in December, according to MOF.
    Fueling concern is the outlook for Greek debt - some analysts warn Greece could default - and the debt of other southern European countries such as Portugal, Spain and Italy.
    Downgrades to the ratings of any of these countries would likely prompt Japanese investors to sell off additional foreign bond holdings, Nomura Securities senior dealer Hiroshi Maeba said.
    Many Japanese investors have been hanging on to their foreign bonds because they bought them when the yen was weaker, and selling now would entail a foreign exchange loss. But fear of losing money on the bonds themselves could spur investors to get out while they can.
    Though the catalyst for such moves is in Europe, dollar-denominated assets could be sold as well if Japanese investor sentiment sours.
    Aggressive selling of foreign bonds could push up the yen to important psychological points around Y85 to the dollar - it fell as low as Y84.82 on Nov. 27m, before turning around - and Y115 to the euro, a level it hasn't hit in a year, dealers in Tokyo said. That could prompt Japanese authorities to intervene in the market for the first time since March 2004 to stem the yen's rise.
    To be sure, some analysts say there won't be a large-scale repatriation because investors such as life insurance firms manage their funds with an outlook of a decade or more. In addition, European Union officials recently have hinted that they'd step in to save Greece from defaulting.
    Analysts should keep checking the MOF's weekly flow data and its correlation to yen moves against the dollar and euro, said Yuji Saito, director of Credit Agricole Cib's foreign exchange department. So far the data correlate: As Japanese investors became net sellers, the dollar had fallen to Y89.75 as of 0700 GMT Wednesday, down 4% from January's high of Y93.78, while the euro was at Y123.60, 9% below last month's high of Y134.39.
    All told, Saito says, Japanese institutional investors' trading patterns will provide a good basis to forecast the direction of the yen.
     
  3. timbecks777

    timbecks777 New Member

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    EUR

    The euro slumped against the dollar Wednesday as it remains unclear how the European Union will address the debt woes of Greece and other member nations that are fiscally stressed.
    Pressure on the common currency increased after remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on the likely path of credit tightening in the U.S. once the economy recovers.
    Even if E.U. leaders come up with a rescue package for Greece, questions remain, he said, including whether the support would also extend to other countries.
    Blizzard conditions in New York and other parts of the Northeast kept many investors on the sidelines, with light trading volumes leading to volatile trading conditions... [Full Article]
     
  4. timbecks777

    timbecks777 New Member

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    The euro faltered broadly Thursday as a European Union statement of support for Greece failed to extinguish investor concern over the struggling country's stressed fiscal situation.
    The common currency's slide in North American trading took it back to levels last seen Monday, erasing almost all of the gains it made this week on optimism that a solution for Greece's budgetary problems was in the works.
    An afternoon rally in U.S. stocks and commodities helped the euro rebound from an earlier drop to near eight-month lows, but investors yearning for...[Full Article]
     
  5. timbecks777

    timbecks777 New Member

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    Up until this week, there were still lingering hopes that the U.K. economy could yet pull ahead and that expectations of a hike in U.K. interest rates would provide support for the currency.
    However, the pound's prospects have suffered a double whammy in the last few days.
    First, the Bank of England's latest Inflation Report has effectively erased hopes of a rate rise before the end of the year.
    As the central bank itself admitted: "The strength of the recovery is highly uncertain."
    And second, the latest opinion polls show that the Conservatives' lead is still shrinking and that the risks of hung parliament are rapidly rising.
    [FULL ARTICLE]
     
  6. timbecks777

    timbecks777 New Member

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    The euro will continue to surrender ground to the dollar in the coming week, as lingering concerns over fiscally stressed Greece contrast with a U.S. economy that is chugging forward.
    Investors will pay close attention to whether E.U. member nations--euro-zone countries in particular--develop more solid plans to address Greek finances after this week's E.U. statement of support, with few details, failed to undergird a shaky euro.
    Several Federal Reserve speakers will also take center stage week, with investors listening closely for any clues on when the U.S. might increase the ultra-low interest rates that weigh on the greenback. [FULL ARTICLE]
     
  7. timbecks777

    timbecks777 New Member

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    CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 16th February (00:30GMT)
    U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was little changed in a quiet day of trading keeping to tight ranges against most currencies. US was on Holiday for President's Day and China was also away for the New Year celebrations. Looking ahead, December Long term TIC flows forecast at 50bn vs. 126bn previously. Also released, NAHB Housing Market Index forecast 16 vs. 15.
    The Euro (EUR) the market is focusing on the EU finance Ministers meeting for more details on Greece support. The EUR/USD pivoted the 1.3600 for most of the day but was very quiet. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3578 and a high of 1.3636 before closing at 1.3600. Looking ahead, EU Finance Ministers Meeting Statement expected. Also released, February German ZEW survey forecast at 42.5 vs. 47.2 previously.
    The Japanese Yen (JPY) traded in a very tight range on the USD/JPY around the Y90 level but is starting to build support below the key level. Supporting risk in the Asian session was better than expected Q4 GDP at 1.1% vs. 0.9% forecast Q/Q. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 89.90 and a high of 90.25 before closing the day around 90.05 in the New York session. Looking ahead, Chinese holidays continue.
    The Sterling (GBP) had the widest trading range of the majors with support in the lower 1.5600 area tested before resistance above 1.5700 later in Europe. GBP/JPY is building support below Y141 but is still contained by resistance at Y141.50. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5610 and a high of 1.5723 before closing the day at 1.5665 in the New York session.
    The Australian Dollar (AUD) found support on dips from a strong performance in Gold overnight and positive stocks in Europe. Resistance above 0.8900 is containing for now whilst the market waits for speeches from RBA Stevens and Debelle later this week. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8846 and a high of 0.8912 before closing the US session at 0.8895. Looking ahead, February RBA meeting minutes released.
    Oil & Gold (XAU) was a solid performer testing and closing above the key $1100 level. Overall trading with a low of USD$1091 and high of USD$1103 before ending the New York session at USD$1101 an ounce. Oil was little changed with the US away. Crude Oil was down -$0.13 ending the New York session at $74.00.
     
  8. timbecks777

    timbecks777 New Member

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    U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) weakened as risk appetite picked up on strong stocks and commodities. Helping sentiment was the large jump in the NY FED Empire State index to 24 vs. 16. Also strong, NAHB Fed Housing Market index rising to 17 vs. 15 the first rise since September last year. In US stocks DJIA +169 points closing at 10268, S&P +19 points closing at 1094 and NASDAQ +30 points closing at 2214 Looking ahead, January Housing Starts forecast at 0.58mln vs. 0.557mln previously. January Industrial output forecast at 0.7% vs. 0.6%. Also Released, FOMC minutes from Jan 27 meeting.

    The Euro (EUR) enjoyed a solid short squeeze as the market experienced a bout of 'Greece fatigue' and focus switched to the improving investor risk appetite. EUR/JPY was especially will bid breaking above resistance at Y123 to close above Y124. The German ZEW survey fell to 45.1 vs. 47.2 previously but was much better than the 42.5 forecast. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3587 and a high of 1.3782 before closing at 1.3770. [FULL ARTICLE]
     
  9. timbecks777

    timbecks777 New Member

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    CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 18th February (00:30GMT)

    U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) seized upon comments in the FOMC minutes that the FED should begin Asset Sales soon to drain some liquidity from the market. Some focus was again seen on Koenig's dissent about the language of leaving rates low for an 'extended period of time'. Economic data was also very strong with January Industrial Output at 0.9% vs. 0.7% forecast and January Housing Starts at 591k vs. 575k previously. In US stocks DJIA +40 points closing at 10309, S&P +4 points closing at 1099 and NASDAQ +12 points closing at 2226. Looking ahead, Weekly Jobless Claims are forecast at 430k vs. 440k previously.
    [FULL ARTICLE]
     
  10. timbecks777

    timbecks777 New Member

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    Previous session overview
    The euro and the commodities-influenced currencies erased their overnight losses Thursday morning after investors said U.S. weekly jobless claims data wasn't as bad as they first appeared, fueling a surge in demand for stocks and other riskier assets.
    The euro recovered to as high as USD1.3655, gaining more than 1 cent off its lows of the day. The New Zealand and Australian currencies also moved higher against other currencies. The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of six currencies, fell, trading near its intraday low.
    [FULL ARTICLE]
     
  11. timbecks777

    timbecks777 New Member

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    FOREX WEEK AHEAD​

    Currency investors will shift their focus to economic growth from crisis now that the Federal Reserve has signaled that U.S. banks no longer require acute emergency support.
    Until recently, any sign of strength of economic recovery in the U.S. prompted investors to sell dollars and buy higher-yielding assets, safe in the knowledge that dollar interest rates would remain ultra-low for awhile.
    [FULL ARTICLE]
     
  12. timbecks777

    timbecks777 New Member

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    CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 23rd February (00:30GMT)

    U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) with no economic data out the market suffered from a lack of direction and kept to tight ranges on most pairs. Fed member Yellen was dovish as she reiterated her assessment of the US economy as still very weak. In US stocks DJIA -18 points closing at 10383, S&P -1 points closing at 1108 and NASDAQ -1 points closing at 2242. Looking ahead, February Case Shiller house prices forecast at -3.2% vs. -5.3% y/y.

    The Euro (EUR) found resistance at 1.3650 and slipped back in Europe on news that the EU was not planning to bailout Greece. Also weighing was the pull back in Oil and sluggish US stocks. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3572 and a high of 1.3655 before closing at 1.3600. Looking ahead, German IFO forecast at 96.1 vs. 95.8 previously.
    [FULL ARTICLE]
     
  13. timbecks777

    timbecks777 New Member

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    CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 24th February (00:30GMT)

    U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) gained on safe haven flows as risk aversion spiked higher in the US on very weak US Consumer Confidence falling to 46 in February from 56 previously. The souring of sentiment had already begun in the European session and was in stark contrast to the positive Asian market. In US stocks DJIA -100 points closing at 10282, S&P -13 points closing at 1094 and NASDAQ -28 points closing at 2213. Looking ahead, January New Home Sales are forecast at 0.36mln vs. 0.342mln previously.

    The Euro (EUR) rallied at the start of Europe before the market reversed aggressively on weak German February IFO numbers at 95.2 vs. 96 forecast. The slump in EUR/JPY later in the US session dragged the pair towards the key 1.3500 support. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3495 and a high of 1.3694 before closing at 1.3515. Looking ahead, December EU Industrial Orders are forecast at -1% vs. 2.7% m/m.
    [FULL ARTICLE]
     
  14. timbecks777

    timbecks777 New Member

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    CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 26th February (00:30GMT)

    U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) in a volatile day of trading the dollar gained heavily against risk currencies as concerns about Greece debt resurfaced and US economic data disappointed. Weekly Jobless Claims were at 496k vs. 455k forecast and Core Durable Goods fell -0.6% in December. The late rally in US stocks helped to pare back these gains but markets are becoming increasingly jittery. In US stocks DJIA -53 points closing at 10321, S&P -2 points closing at 1102 and NASDAQ -1 points closing at 2234. Looking ahead, February Chicago PMI is forecast at 60 vs. 61.5 previously. February Consumer Sentiment is forecast at 74 vs. 74.4. Preliminary Q4 GDP is forecast to remain at 5.7% Q/Q annualized.

    The Euro (EUR) was very weak in Asia as the market fears on Greece debt sent the Euro through 1.3500 to test year lows at 1.3450. In Europe risk aversion and weak US data sent the EUR/JPY plummeting through the key Y120 level before the market bounced with US stocks into the close. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3450 and a high of 1.3573 before closing at 1.3560. Looking ahead, January Inflation is forecast at -0.8% vs. 0.3% m/m.
    [FULL ARTICLE]
     
  15. Jose Flores

    Jose Flores New Member

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    Japanese investors have increased their net holdings of foreign bonds by Y6 trillion a year in recent years. In January, however, Japanese institutional investors sold a net Y250 billion of foreign bonds, the first month of net sales since March 2009, according to flows data from the Ministry of Finance.
     
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