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Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Apr 26 2013

Discussion in 'Major Currency Crosses' started by alayoua, Apr 26, 2013.

  1. alayoua

    alayoua New Member

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    Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Apr 26 2013

    All eyes on the ECB
    This week's data releases were disappointing on balance. While economic numbers in the US and China continued to come in on a weak(er) note, the eurozone's business climate readings failed to improve again. The UK's GDP report, however, was a nice exception, showing that the economy returned to growth earlier this year. With German business sentiment figures down again (but overall still signaling growth), the French numbers pretty mixed at low levels and Italy's reading (to be released next Thursday) likely up from depressed lows, EMU-wide sentiment does not show signs of recovery after the weakness of the last two months. This should further challenge the ECB's expectations of a stabilization in activity in 1H13 followed by a gradual recovery in the second half of the year. Coupled with recent dovish remarks from Council members and the "lively debate" during the last meeting, this indicates that the central bank should cut the refi rate (but not the deposit rate) by 25bp within the next five weeks. The exact timing of the rate cut is a close call. But our guess is that June is more likely than May, also because the ECB will have the 1Q13 GDP numbers at hand and will have finished its macroeconomic update procedure by then.
    https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/26042013/


    N/A | Japan. BoJ Interest Rate Decision
    2013-04-26 08:00 GMT | Switzerland. SNB Chairman Jordan Speech
    2013-04-26 12:30 GMT | USA. Gross Domestic Product Annualized
    2013-04-26 13:55 GMT | USA. US Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index


    2013-04-26 04:54 GMT | USD/JPY dives lower after Bank of Japan monetary policy release
    2013-04-26 04:07 GMT | EUR/USD choppy trade continues, ECB meeting on tap next week
    2013-04-26 02:14 GMT | AUD/USD higher on weaker USD and stronger commodities
    2013-04-26 02:14 GMT | US Dollar leaking lower during Asia trade


    EURUSD :
    HIGH 1.30474 LOW 1.29977 BID 1.30294 ASK 1.30301 CHANGE 0.14% TIME 08:45:17

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
    TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Upwards scenario: Price stabilized after the yesterday depreciation. Today we see potential to overcome our next resistance level at 1.3049 (R1). Clearance here might pull the pair towards to eventual targets at 1.3066 (R2) and 1.3082 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, market bias remains negative. Risk of further decline is seen below the key support level at 1.3017 (S1). Break here is required to validate lower targets at 1.3000 (S2) and 1.2982 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.3049, 1.3066, 1.3082
    Support Levels: 1.3017, 1.3000, 1.2982

    --------------------------
    GBPUSD :
    HIGH 1.54716 LOW 1.54287 BID 1.54539 ASK 1.54546 CHANGE 0.14% TIME 08:45:17

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Up trend
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Upwards scenario: Current price setup is looking for upwards extension possibility. Risk of the price acceleration is seen above the key resistance level at 1.5479 (R1). Clearance here would put immediate focus on the next targets at 1.5502 (R2) and then 1.5524 (R3). Downwards scenario: Bearish pressure might push the price below the support at 1.5426 (S1). Further correction development would open road towards to next target at 1.5402 (S2) and any further losses would then be limited to 1.5378 (S3) mark.

    Resistance Levels: 1.5479, 1.5502, 1.5524
    Support Levels: 1.5426, 1.5402, 1.5378

    -----------------
    USDJPY :
    HIGH 99.411 LOW 98.225 BID 98.552 ASK 98.559 CHANGE -0.7% TIME 08:45:18

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
    TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Upwards scenario: Price accelerates on the downside though chance of market appreciation is seen above the key resistance at 99.22 (R1). Next targets could be found 99.66 (R2) and 100.07 (R3). Downwards scenario: As long as price stays below the next resistance level our medium-term outlook would be negative. Next on tap is support level at 98.17 (S1). Penetration below this mark would suggest next targets at 97.78 (S2) and 97.39 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 99.22, 99.66, 100.07
    Support Levels: 98.17, 97.78, 97.39

    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Trading News | Forex Demo Account | Currency Converter | FXCC )
     
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