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Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Aug 06 2013

Discussion in 'Major Currency Crosses' started by alayoua, Aug 6, 2013.

  1. alayoua

    alayoua New Member

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    Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Aug 06 2013

    AUD/USD rallies initially after RBA, but a lot of resistance looms

    The AUD/USD came into the RBA decision very oversold and ready squeeze the bears. Despite the initial pop, technicians say there’s plenty of resistance to conquer before the bulls take control of the macro picture. The initial positive reaction following the RBA’s 25 basis point rate cut appears to be the market weeding out those shorts who were banking on a 50 basis point cut. While nobody knows exactly how much money was being bet against the AUD/USD, but the mercilous selling that led to the extreme oversold readings made it quite apparent that the short-Aussie trade was extremely crowded – and the markets do not treat crowded trades well typically. The good news for bears that were not over-leveraged is that the RBA hinted that they stand at the ready to act further if growth continues to be a problem and inflation remains benign.
    https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/06082013/

    FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
    2013-08-06 08:30 GMT | UK. Industrial Production (YoY)
    2013-08-06 12:30 GMT | US. Trade Balance
    2013-08-06 14:00 GMT | UK. NIESR GDP Estimate (3M)
    2013-08-06 22:45 GMT | NZ. Unemployment Rate (Q2)

    FOREX NEWS :
    2013-08-06 05:04 GMT | Japan June Leading Economic Index falls to 107 vs 110.7
    2013-08-06 04:48 GMT | USD pares loses; RBA cuts 25bps as expected
    2013-08-06 04:47 GMT | EUR/AUD, on never-ending downfall?
    2013-08-06 03:48 GMT | USD/JPY, Houston, do we have a problem?

    ---------------------
    EURUSD :
    HIGH 1.32714 LOW 1.32526 BID 1.32546 ASK 1.32552 CHANGE -0.03% TIME 08 : 40:54

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Sideway
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Upwards scenario: Despite the current consolidation pattern, EURUSD remains in uptrend formation on the bigger picture. Clearance of our next resistance level at 1.3272 (R1) would suggest initial targets at 1.3282 (R2) and 1.3292 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside next supportive bastion lies at 1.3250 (S1). Prolonged movement below it might then expose our intraday targets at 1.3241 (S2) and 1.3231 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.3272, 1.3282, 1.3292
    Support Levels: 1.3250, 1.3241, 1.3231

    ---------------------
    GBPUSD :
    HIGH 1.53689 LOW 1.53362 BID 1.53376 ASK 1.53385 CHANGE -0.1% TIME 08 : 40:54

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Up trend
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Upwards scenario: Further bullish penetration might face next challenge at 1.5378 (R1). Break here would then be targeting 1.5396 (R2) en route towards to last resistance for today at 1.5415 (R3).Downwards scenario: On the other hand, retracement formation might occur below the immediate support level at 1.5319 (S1). Clearance here would enable our next intraday targets at 1.5301(S2) and 1.5281 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.5378, 1.5396, 1.5415
    Support Levels: 1.5319, 1.5301, 1.5281

    --------------------
    USDJPY :
    HIGH 98.377 LOW 97.838 BID 98.350 ASK 98.353 CHANGE 0.06% TIME 08 : 40:55

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
    TREND CONDITION : Down trend
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Upwards scenario: An element of resistive measure could be found at 98.46 (R1). Clearance here would open way towards to higher target at 98.63 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to last resistance at 98.80 (R3). Downwards scenario: Failure to establish corrective structure might lead to further downtrend evolvement later on today. Penetration below the support at 98.03 (S1) would suggest next intraday targets at 97.86 (S2) and 97.69 (S3) in perspective.

    Resistance Levels: 98.46, 98.63, 98.80
    Support Levels: 98.03, 97.86, 97.69

    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )
     
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