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Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Aug 13 2013

Discussion in 'Major Currency Crosses' started by alayoua, Aug 13, 2013.

  1. alayoua

    alayoua New Member

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    Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Aug 13 2013

    Yen short trade revival subject to Japan's sales tax chatter...

    By now, the market completes a full trading day in which investors and traders had the opportunity to digest what to make out of Monday's disappointing Japan Q2 GDP data, but most importantly, what might be the implications on the widely covered topic of the sales tax hike. As reported yesterday, the big miss in the Japanese growth figures, displaying a -1% negative deviation from 3.6% expected to 2.6% preliminary data, is not helping the case to implement a planned 3% aggressive increase on the sales tax. Historically, there are well-founded reasons to fear that the economy may face some undesirable headwinds if being too aggressive on a tax hike. Japanese policy-makers are growing more vocal on softer option to take on, including either a more conservative 1% incremental approach on the sales tax, or even delaying the tax hike by one year after Japan's PM Abe Adviser, Mr. Hamada,was quoted earlier yesterday saying "there is no need to hurry with the sales tax hike after the weaker-than-expected Q2 GDP as it might harm the economy." On the flip side, BoJ Chief Kuroda said last week that it is not necessary a delay in the sales tax hike, saying that “ending deflation and raising the sales tax are achievable at the same time.”
    https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/13082013/

    FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
    2013-08-13 08:30 GMT | UK Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jul)
    2013-08-13 09:00 GMT | EMU ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment (Jul)
    2013-08-13 12:30 GMT | US Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)
    2013-08-13 14:00 GMT | US Business Inventories (Jun)

    FOREX NEWS :
    2013-08-13 04:54 GMT | GBP/USD working off overbought condition with current pullback
    2013-08-13 04:54 GMT | EUR/GBP treading water above 0.86 ahead of UK CPI
    2013-08-13 03:56 GMT | EUR/JPY pushed up to fresh new 129.60 highs
    2013-08-13 03:42 GMT | EUR/USD ignited on impressive rally

    ----------------------
    EURUSD :
    HIGH 1.3313 LOW 1.32891 BID 1.33032 ASK 1.33032 CHANGE 0.03% TIME 08:34:53

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
    TREND CONDITION : Sideway
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Upwards scenario: Price dip lower yesterday and finally stabilized. A violation of next resistance at 1.3313 (R1) might call for a run towards to next target at 1.3327 (R2) and any further appreciation would then be limited to final target at 1.3340 (R3). Downwards scenario: We placed our support level right below the session low at 1.3288 (S1). Clearance here is liable to open way towards to our interim target at 1.3275 (S2) and then might expose final aim at 1.3262 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.3313, 1.3327, 1.3340
    Support Levels: 1.3288, 1.3275, 1.3262

    ----------------------
    GBPUSD :
    HIGH 1.54649 LOW 1.54472 BID 1.54599 ASK 1.54607 CHANGE 0% TIME 08:34:54

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
    TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

    Upwards scenario: Market trapped to the consolidation phase after initial uptrend development. Further buying interest might occur above the resistance at 1.5485 (R1). Our initial targets locates at 1.5512 (R2) and 1.5538 (R3) Downwards scenario: On the downside Cable is approaching our next supportive barrier at 1.5442 (S1). Break here is required to drive market price towards to next visible targets at 1.5415 (S2) and 1.5388 (S3) later on today.

    Resistance Levels: 1.5485, 1.5512, 1.5538
    Support Levels: 1.5442, 1.5415, 1.5388

    ----------------------
    USDJPY :
    HIGH 97.561 LOW 96.857 BID 97.451 ASK 97.454 CHANGE 0.57% TIME 08:34:55

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Upwards scenario: Instrument gained momentum on the upside recently, turning short-term bias to the positive side. Next resistive structure on the way lies at 97.65 (R1), break here would suggest next intraday targets at 97.88 (R2) and 98.11 (R3). Downwards scenario: Any downside fluctuations remains for now limited to the key support barrier at 97.14 (S1). Only clear break here would be a signal of possible market easing towards to our targets at 96.93 (S2) and 96.70 (S3) in potential.

    Resistance Levels: 97.65, 97.88, 98.11
    Support Levels: 97.14, 96.93, 96.70

    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )
     
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