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Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Aug 14 2013

Discussion in 'Major Currency Crosses' started by alayoua, Aug 14, 2013.

  1. alayoua

    alayoua New Member

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    Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Aug 14 2013

    Fed’s Lockhart reiterates September reduction in Federal bond buying

    In news that will certainly resonate through FX Markets, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart reported that the Federal Reserve could begin reducing its bond-buying stimulus as early as its September meeting – despite inflation still being below its targeted values. One of the more pressing concerns facing investors and policymakers alike is that the U.S. economic performance is too volatile or unstable for Federal Reserve policymakers to initiate their comprehensive plan for both reducing and eventually halting their asset-purchasing program as early as next month. Ultimately though, Lockhart appeared open or receptive to at least a modest pullback in Federal monetary stimulus from its current pace of $85 billion per month. "I wouldn't rule out September," he stated. "As I see it, a decision to proceed - whether it is in September, October, or December - ought to be thought of as a cautious first step." Indeed, U.S. inflation has been running well below the Fed's 2.0% target for some time – historically very low. However Lockhart noted he did not see any signs that deflation was accelerating, reiterating that the current inflationary backdrop would still be consistent with a modest pullback in quantitative easing.
    https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/14082013/

    FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
    2013-08-14 06:00 GMT | Germany. Gross Domestic Product n.s.a (YoY) (Q2)
    2013-08-14 08:30 GMT | UK. Bank of England Minutes
    2013-08-14 09:00 GMT | EMU. Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (Q2)
    2013-08-14 12:30 GMT | US. Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)

    FOREX NEWS :
    2013-08-14 05:01 GMT | EUR/USD grinds sideways at 1.3263 in advance of key European data
    2013-08-14 04:56 GMT | EUR/GBP capped below 0.86 ahead of UK jobs data
    2013-08-14 04:10 GMT | USD marginally lower on Yen strength; Hong-Kong closed
    2013-08-14 03:12 GMT | Next RBA cut November, more cuts may follow - NAB

    --------------------
    EURUSD :
    HIGH 1.3268 LOW 1.32532 BID 1.32638 ASK 1.32640 CHANGE 0.01% TIME 08 : 38:20

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
    TREND CONDITION : Down trend
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Upwards scenario: Market remains relatively stable below the moving averages, though clearance of next resistance level at 1.3269 (R1) might initiates bullish pressure. Above the local high locates our intraday targets at 1.3282 (R2) and 1.3294 (R3). Downwards scenario: Failure to establish positive bias today would shift our focus to the next support level at 1.3246 (S1). Clearance here would open way towards to next targets at 1.3234 (S2) and 1.3221 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.3269, 1.3282, 1.3294
    Support Levels: 1.3246, 1.3234, 1.3221

    ---------------------
    GBPUSD :
    HIGH 1.54535 LOW 1.54362 BID 1.54425 ASK 1.54434 CHANGE -0.03% TIME 08 : 38:21

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
    TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

    Upwards scenario: Possibility of price progress is seen above the next resistance level at 1.5472 (R1). Breakthrough here would suggest our interim target at 1.5498 (R2) and then mark at 1.5524 (R3) acts as last resistive measure today. Downwards scenario: Any downside extension is limited now to the next support level at 1.5425 (S1). Below here we see potential for the price acceleration towards to next targets at 1.5401 (S2) and 1.5375 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.5472, 1.5498, 1.5524
    Support Levels: 1.5425, 1.5401, 1.5375

    ----------------------
    USDJPY :
    HIGH 98.406 LOW 97.866 BID 98.386 ASK 98.388 CHANGE 0.18% TIME 08 : 38:22

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Up trend
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Upwards scenario: Yesterday price acceleration on the upside suggests medium-term positive bias. Possible penetration above the resistance level at 98.52 (R1) is liable to open way towards to our initial targets at 98.71 (R2) and 98.89 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, break below the support at 97.85 (S1) is required to enable possible retracement development. Our next supportive measures locates at 97.65 (S2) and 97.45 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 98.52, 98.71, 98.89
    Support Levels: 97.85, 97.65, 97.45

    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )
     
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