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Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Dec 04 2013

Discussion in 'Major Currency Crosses' started by alayoua, Dec 4, 2013.

  1. alayoua

    alayoua New Member

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    Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Dec 04 2013

    Will the Bank of Canada lower base rates from 1%? And will USA job numbers from ADP enjoy a seasonal boost?

    Wednesday there's a raft of PMIs published early morning, Spanish and Italian final services PMIs with Europe's final services PMI also published expected in at 50.9. The UK services PMI is expected in at 62.1. There are OPEC meetings all day Wednesday, naturally these could have a positive, or negative impact on the price of oil. Retail sales for Europe is expected in at +0.2% from the -0.6% negative the previous month. Europe's revised GDP growth is expected in at 0.1%. The USA ADP employment numbers are expected to show an improvement of circa 185K jobs created for the month. Canada's trade balance is expected in up to $0.7bn, the USA's is expected in at $40.3 bn. The bank of Canada will publish its decision on its rate setting, expected to stay at 1.00%. Further USA news comes in the form of new home sales expected in at circa 432K, whilst the USA PMI for non manufacturing is expected in at 55.4. Crude oil inventories completes the day for USA high impact news releases with the beige book data also published. Australia's trade balance completes the day for news events. The U.S. 10-year yield declined one basis point on Tuesday, or 0.01 percentage point, to 2.78 percent late New York time. It fell as much as four basis points after rising one basis point earlier. It reached 2.81 percent yesterday, the highest since Nov. 21st. The price of the 2.75 percent security maturing in November 2023 gained 3/32, or 94 cents per $1,000 face amount, to 99 23/32.
    http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

    FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
    2013-12-04 09:28 GMT | UK Markit Services PMI (Nov)
    2013-12-04 10:00 GMT | EMY Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (Q3)
    2013-12-04 15:00 GMT | BoC Interest Rate Decision
    2013-12-04 19:00 GMT | US Fed's Beige Book

    FOREX NEWS :
    2013-12-04 03:50 GMT | NZD/USD rejected by daily kijun, bearish below 0.8340/50
    2013-12-04 03:35 GMT | Yen bearish trend to continue - JPMorgan
    2013-12-04 02:37 GMT | EUR/JPY engaged in intraday battle, loss of H1 ichimoku cloud weighs
    2013-12-04 01:57 GMT | AUD/USD breaks into new trend lows, sovereign bids sub 0.9050?

    ----------------------
    EURUSD :
    HIGH 1.35976 LOW 1.35816 BID 1.35843 ASK 1.35845 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 43:56

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Upwards scenario: A violation of next resistance at 1.3614 (R1) might call for a run towards to next target at 1.3629 (R2) and any further appreciation would then be limited to final target at 1.3644 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of market weakening is seen below the support level at 1.3580 (S1). Loss here is required to enable our supportive barrier at 1.3565 (S2) en route towards to final target for today at 1.3550 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.3614, 1.3629, 1.3644
    Support Levels: 1.3580, 1.3565, 1.3550

    ------------------
    GBPUSD :
    HIGH 1.63974 LOW 1.63781 BID 1.63918 ASK 1.63922 CHANGE 0.01% TIME 08 : 43:56

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
    TREND CONDITION : Sideway
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

    Upwards scenario: Next resistive barrier locates at 1.6407 (R1). Violation here is required to provide a signal of further market strengthening. In such case, resistances at 1.6429 (R2) and 1.6450 (R3) acts as next attractive points for the bullish oriented traders. Downwards scenario: As long as price stays below the 20 SMA our technical outlook would be negative. Extension lower the next support level at 1.6374 (S1) is being able to drive market price towards to our next targets at 1.6353 (S2) and 1.6331(S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.6407, 1.6429, 1.6450
    Support Levels: 1.6374, 1.6353, 1.6331

    ----------------------
    USDJPY :
    HIGH 102.663 LOW 102.239 BID 102.586 ASK 102.589 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 43:56

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
    TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Upwards scenario: Resistance at 102.75 (R1) limits possible upwards penetration. Break here is required to enable next interim target at 102.94 (R2) en route towards to final aim for today at 103.11 (R3). Downwards scenario: Next support level lies at 102.30 (S1). Penetration below it might shift short-term tone to the negative side. Our intraday targets locates at 102.14 (S2) and 101.96 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 102.75, 102.94, 103.11
    Support Levels: 102.30, 102.14, 101.96

    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )
     
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