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Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jan 18 2013

Discussion in 'Major Currency Crosses' started by alayoua, Jan 18, 2013.

  1. alayoua

    alayoua New Member

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    Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jan 18 2013

    Fiscal negotiations hope to avoid destabilizing a fragile US economy

    The remainder of 2012 and early 2013 has thus far been dominated by the “fiscal cliff” negotiations in Washington and the unfinished business associated with them. The repercussions of these political decisions will have far-reaching consequences on the economy, confidence, financial markets and perhaps most importantly, the US credit rating. In the immediate sense, automatic tax increases 
and mandatory spending cuts set to go into effect in January, amounting to as much as 5% of GDP would – if implemented – most likely drive an already fragile US economy into recession. “By contrast, a ‘kicking the can down the road; solution or underlying mentality of extending all tax cuts and forestalling any spending cuts would only simply defer many tough decisions and would likely lead to another US credit downgrade and weaker business and consumer confidence.” warns Larry V. Adam, an analyst at Deutsche Bank.

    We believe that Congressional leaders will ultimately avoid these two extreme alternatives and form a compromise, however in a two- stage process. The first phase will include not extending the payroll tax cut and additional unemployment benefits into next year. The proceeds will be used as a down payment to avoid the implementation of the “sequestration” (i.e. automatic) cuts and allow the Bush-era tax cuts to be extended for an additional six months. In addition, leaders will then develop a “framework” of reduced tax deductions, possible tax increases, targeted spending cuts and entitlement reform to agree upon a more comprehensive long-term solution in a second phase of negotiations early next year. Ultimately, “assuming a fiscal cliff compromise is achieved in Washington that prudently balances growth and austerity, a recession will likely be averted.” Adam suggests. However, the US economy will grow at a tepid 2% rate over 2013 as a whole, as the “fiscal cliff,” even in its modified form, could cause a drag of approximately 1.5% to GDP. https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/18012013/


    Forex Economic Calendar
    2013-01-18 09:00 GMT | Italy. Industrial Orders n.s.a (YoY) (Nov)
    2013-01-18 09:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Retail Sales (YoY) (Dec)
    2013-01-18 13:30 GMT | Switzerland. Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) (Nov)
    2013-01-18 14:55 GMT | United States. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Jan)Preliminar

    Forex News
    2013-01-18 04:59 GMT | USD/JPY correction lower may not be complete – Commerzbank
    2013-01-18 03:43 GMT | Euro bulls ready to rock
    2013-01-18 03:37 GMT | USD/CHF surrenders gains and trading at 0.9310/13
    2013-01-18 01:16 GMT | EUR/JPY rallies through 119.00 after Spain and Van Rompuy

    TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
    ---------------------
    EURUSD :
    HIGH 1.33913 LOW 1.33614 BID 1.33818 ASK 1.33824 CHANGE 0.03% TIME 07:56:11

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Upwards scenario: A positive market tone dominates on the hourly chart frame and further buying interest might arise above the key resistance at 1.3394 (R1). A break through here would suggest next target at 1.3420 (R2) and if the price holds its momentum we can expect an exposure of 1.3446 (R3). Downwards scenario: Fresh low formed today limits recovery attempts for now. Next support level stays right below it at 1.3358 (S1). Break here would suggest next target at 1.3329 (S2) and any further fall would then be limited by last support at 1.3302 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.3394, 1.3420, 1.3446
    Support Levels: 1.3358, 1.3329, 1.3302

    -----------------------
    GBPUSD :
    HIGH 1.6006 LOW 1.59636 BID 1.59857 ASK 1.59867 CHANGE -0.05% TIME 07:56:12

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
    TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Upwards scenario: The short- term tendency is bearish as both moving averages are pointing up however risk of market strengthening is seen above the resistance level at 1.5989 (R1). Clearance here would open way for towards to next targets at 1.6005 (R2) and 1.6021 (R3). Downwards scenario: Fresh low, formed today is pointing to key short-term support level at 1.5963 (S1). Decline below it would suggest next intraday target at 1.5949 (S2) and any further easing would then be targeting 1.5933 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.5989, 1.6005, 1.6021
    Support Levels: 1.5963, 1.5949, 1.5933

    ----------------------
    USDJPY :
    HIGH 90.205 LOW 89.634 BID 90.049 ASK 90.055 CHANGE 0.21% TIME 07:56:13

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Upwards scenario: The next hurdle on the upside lies at 90.21 (R1), any uptrend action above it would put in focus resistance barrier at 90.43 (R2) as the near-term target. Next on tap is final resistance at 90.64 (R3). Downwards scenario: Penetration below the 89.64 (S1) is liable to put more downward pressure on the instrument in the near-term perspective and start forming retracement formation. In such scenario our potential targets locates at 89.42 (S2) and 89.20 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 90.21, 90.43, 90.64
    Support Levels: 89.64, 89.42, 89.20

    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex ECN Brokers List | Auto Forex Trading Account | FXCC )
     
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