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Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 16 2013

Discussion in 'Major Currency Crosses' started by alayoua, Jul 16, 2013.

  1. alayoua

    alayoua New Member

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    Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 16 2013

    Dovish ECB, soft US retail sales balance each other out. Waiting on Bernanke – again!

    Dovish talk from the ECB undermined the Euro before the softer than expected US Retail Sales turned things around, sending the US dollar slightly lower. Markets are likely to be on hold ahead of Bernanke’s testimony to Congress although equities and commodities both looks solid in the short term. A mix of data out of the EU and the US could make it a bit choppy later in the day. Before then, the RBA Minutes will be Asia’s focus.

    The Euro has had a choppy but mostly uninteresting session, hanging close to 1.3000 as the northern hemisphere summer doldrums look to be well upon us. Early dovish comments from the ECB’s Hansson, indicating that there is room to cut rates further and that negative interest rates should not be ruled out helped push the Euro lower early in the session, before a bit of a turnaround following the softer than expected US retail Sales, that saw the dollar come under some pressure of its own. Fitch downgraded the EFSF – European Financial Stability Facility- to AA+ from AAA, which, following on from the recent France downgrade, had precisely no effect on the Euro at all.
    https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/16072013/

    FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
    N/A | UK. BOE Inflation Letter
    2013-07-16 08:30 GMT | UK. Consumer Price Index (YoY)
    2013-07-16 09:00 GMT | EMU. Consumer Price Index (YoY
    2013-07-16 12:30 GMT | USA. Consumer Price Index (YoY)

    FOREX NEWS :
    2013-07-16 04:46 GMT | GBP/USD stable above 1.51 ahead of UK&US CPI's
    2013-07-16 04:25 GMT | EUR/USD pressing against 1.3080
    2013-07-16 03:10 GMT | NZD/USD seen at 0.78 year end - BNZ
    2013-07-16 02:07 GMT | AUD/USD targets 0.9188, dip buyers on the rise

    -------------------------
    EURUSD :
    HIGH 1.30758 LOW 1.30527 BID 1.30716 ASK 1.30722 CHANGE 0.07% TIME 08:21:26

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Upwards scenario: Next barrier on the upside lie at 1.3092 (R1). Surpassing of this level might enable our initial target at 1.3132 (R2) and any further gains would then be limited to last resistive structure at 1.3171 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, clearance of our support at 1.3049 (S1) is required to determine negative intraday bias and enable lower target at 1.3010 (S2) and then any further market depreciation would suggest final support at 1.2969 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.3092, 1.3132, 1.3171
    Support Levels: 1.3049, 1.3010, 1.2969

    --------------------
    GBPUSD :
    HIGH 1.51167 LOW 1.50909 BID 1.51066 ASK 1.51078 CHANGE 0.06% TIME 08:21:27

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

    Upwards scenario: Neutral channel formation remains favored pattern on the hourly chart frame. Possible clearance of our next resistive barrier at 1.5132 (R1) would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5173 (R2) and 1.5216 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Possible downside expansion is protected by support level at 1.5086 (S1), break here would put bullish oriented traders on hold. Marks at 1.5046 (S2) and 1.5004 (S3) acts as our initial targets today.

    Resistance Levels: 1.5132, 1.5173, 1.5216
    Support Levels: 1.5086, 1.5046, 1.5004

    -------------------
    USDJPY :
    HIGH 100.068 LOW 99.647 BID 99.805 ASK 99.807 CHANGE -0.03% TIME 08:21:27

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
    TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

    Upwards scenario: USDJPY resumed its consolidation phase yesterday and we see potential for further appreciation towards to our targets at 100.33 (R2) and 100.60 (R3) if the price manages to overcome key resistance measure at 100.06 (R1). Downwards scenario: On the downside our attention is shifted to the immediate support level at 99.62 (S1). Break here is required to enable bearish forces and expose our intraday targets at 99.35 (S2) and 99.06 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 100.06, 100.33, 100.60
    Support Levels: 99.62, 99.35, 99.06

    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )
     
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