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Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 18 2013

Discussion in 'Major Currency Crosses' started by alayoua, Jul 18, 2013.

  1. alayoua

    alayoua New Member

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    Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 18 2013

    Fed's Bernanke: Asset purchases not 'on a preset course'

    According to the prepared text of Chairman Ben Bernanke's speech, to be delivered later today during his Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress, the pace of the Federal Reserve's bond purchases is not 'on a preset course', as it depends on the current economic and financial situation. The Fed head assured that signs of recovery are visible in the US labor market, but that “the jobs situation is far from satisfactory, as the unemployment rate remains well above its longer-run normal level.” He also pointed out that inflation is still below the Fed's 2% target. That is why “a highly accommodative monetary policy will remain appropriate for the foreseeable future.”

    As far as QE is concerned, Bernanke stressed that the decision on when the tapering should begin depends on the Fed's assessment of the US economic outlook. Should economic data improve earlier than forecasted and inflation rise towards the objective, a reduction could be carried out sooner. Otherwise, “the current pace of purchases could be maintained for longer.” According to Rob Carnell from ING: ”This speech neither contradicts nor supports the notion that the taper begins in September. The taper might begin then. But as we have written elsewhere, there are quite good reasons why it may occur somewhat later. Not that it really matters all that much anyway – given that the Fed funds decision is one that will be taken independently from QE.”
    https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/18072013/

    FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
    2013-07-18 08:30 GMT | UK Retail Sales (YoY)
    2013-07-18 12:30 GMT | US Initial Jobless Claims
    2013-07-18 14:00 GMT | US Fed's Bernanke Speech
    2013-07-18 23:50 GMT | Japan. Foreign bond investment

    FOREX NEWS :
    2013-07-18 04:52 GMT | GBP/USD breaks below 1.52 ahead of UK retail sales
    2013-07-18 04:31 GMT | USD/JPY above 100 again ahead of Sunday's elections
    2013-07-18 04:20 GMT | EUR/USD breaks 1.32, needs to clear 1.3180
    2013-07-18 04:04 GMT | AUD/USD trips stop losses below 0.9170


    EURUSD :
    HIGH 1.31271 LOW 1.3091 BID 1.30962 ASK 1.30968 CHANGE -0.22% TIME 08 : 24:12

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
    TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Upwards scenario: EURUSD stabilized on the hourly timeframe. Potential to move higher is seen above the next resistance level at 1.3147 (R1). Loss here would suggest next intraday targets at 1.3179 (R2) and 1.3210 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible downside extension might face next supportive barrier at 1.3081 (S1). Clearance here is required to open the way towards to interim target at 1.3050 (S2) and any further price regress would then be targeting 1.3019 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.3147, 1.3179, 1.3210
    Support Levels: 1.3081, 1.3050, 1.3019

    --------------------
    GBPUSD :
    HIGH 1.52232 LOW 1.51728 BID 1.51789 ASK 1.51799 CHANGE -0.21% TIME 08 : 24:12

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Upwards scenario: GBPUSD is approaching our next resistance level at 1.5223 (R1), keeping the ascending structure intact. The break here is required for the price appreciation towards to next target at 1.5252 (R2) and any further rise would then be targeting to 1.5281 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside next supportive bastion lies at 1.5152 (S1). Prolonged movement below it might then expose our intraday targets at 1.5124 (S2) and 1.5095 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.5223, 1.5252, 1.5281
    Support Levels: 1.5152, 1.5124, 1.5095

    ------------------
    USDJPY :
    HIGH 100.18 LOW 99.463 BID 100.085 ASK 100.088 CHANGE 0.53% TIME 08 : 24:13

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Upwards scenario: Our next resistance level is placed at 100.22 (R1). Clearance here is required to resume uptrend structure towards to next target at 100.41 (R2) and any further price appreciation would then be limited to 100.61 (R3) mark. Downwards scenario: While instrument trades above the moving averages, our short-term bias would stay positive though penetration below the support level at 99.84 (S1) might open way towards to lower targets at 99.64 (S2) and 99.44 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 100.22, 100.41, 100.61
    Support Levels: 99.84, 99.64, 99.44

    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )
     
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