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Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jun 27 2013

Discussion in 'Major Currency Crosses' started by alayoua, Jun 27, 2013.

  1. alayoua

    alayoua New Member

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    Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jun 27 2013

    EU FinMin reach deal on bank resolution rules

    EU Finance Ministers reached, at the second attempt, an agreement on the new policy to manage restructuring and liquidation of banks. The deal is part of efforts to establish a banking union, which has as ultimate objective to break the link between bank debt and sovereign debt. The EcoFin meeting, celebrated ahead of Thursday's EU Summit, agreed what types of creditors must take losses in future banking crises, according to diplomatic sources. The draft document ensures that depositors with savings under €100,000 will be protected from any loss. The agreement has to be now ratified by the heads of state and government at the summit.

    German unemployment and Eurozone confidence numbers are also scheduled for release today and the outcome of these reports will impact the market's expectations for ECB policy and in turn the euro. If the data is good, then the central bank's threat to increase stimulus will fall on deaf ears. Just this morning ECB President Draghi reminded everyone that the central bank stands ready to act if necessary. Unfortunately based on the latest PMI numbers, labor market conditions most likely deteriorated in the month of June and if the data is weak, confirming that ECB policy will trail far behind the Fed, the euro could find itself trading closer to 1.29. In terms of confidence, it will be tough call since there has been both strength and weakness in the latest IFO and ZEW surveys. These numbers shouldn't be as important as German unemployment.
    https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/27062013/

    FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
    2013-06-27 07:55 GMT | Germany. Unemployment Change (Jun)
    2013-06-27 08:30 GMT | UK. Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q1)
    2013-06-27 14:00 GMT | USA. Pending Home Sales (YoY) (May)
    2013-06-27 23:30 GMT | Japan. National Consumer Price Index (YoY) (May)

    FOREX NEWS :
    2013-06-27 04:58 GMT | AUD/CAD, mid/low 0.99 might be retested
    2013-06-27 04:54 GMT | GBP/USD bounces from sub-1.53 support
    2013-06-27 04:31 GMT | EUR/USD, key day to further define sentiment
    2013-06-27 03:52 GMT | AUD/USD, 0.9330/40 still proves challenging

    ----------------------------
    EURUSD :
    HIGH 1.30353 LOW 1.30046 BID 1.30350 ASK 1.30353 CHANGE 0.18% TIME 08:45:58

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
    TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Upwards scenario: Market price penetrated above the moving averages and determined corrective phase from the initial downtrend formation. On the way is key resistive measure at 1.3058 (R1), break here is required to achieve higher targets at 1.3085 (R2) and 1.3112 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, we would shift our intraday technical outlook to the negative side if the price manage to penetrate below the next support at 1.3014 (S1). Clearance here is required to enable intraday targets at 1.2988 (S2) and 1.2961 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.3058, 1.3085, 1.3112
    Support Levels: 1.3014, 1.2988, 1.2961

    ----------------------
    GBPUSD :
    HIGH 1.5346 LOW 1.53087 BID 1.53355 ASK 1.53356 CHANGE 0.15% TIME 08:45:59

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
    TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Upwards scenario: Medium term bias remains negative and possible price appreciation is limited to resistive barrier at 1.5363 (R1). Prolonged movement above that level would suggest next targets at 1.5392 (R2) and 1.5421 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside next challenge is seen at 1.5314 (S1). Breakthrough here would open road for a downside expansion towards to our initial targets at 1.5286 (S2) and 1.5257 (R3) later on today.

    Resistance Levels: 1.5363, 1.5392, 1.5421
    Support Levels: 1.5314, 1.5286, 1.5257

    ------------------------
    USDJPY :
    HIGH 97.86 LOW 97.565 BID 97.731 ASK 97.735 CHANGE -0.01% TIME 08:46:00

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
    TREND CONDITION : Sideway
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

    Upwards scenario: USDJPY trapped to the consolidation mode after the initial uptrend development. Next resistive barrier is seen at 97.92 (R1), break here is required to enable next attractive points at 98.14 (R2) and 98.37 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible downside expansion is protected by support level at 97.51 (S1), break here would put bullish oriented traders on hold. Marks at 97.28 (S2) and 97.05 (S3) is the next supportive bastion on the way.

    Resistance Levels: 97.92, 98.14, 98.37
    Support Levels: 97.51, 97.28, 97.05

    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )
     
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