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Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jun 28 2013

Discussion in 'Major Currency Crosses' started by alayoua, Jun 28, 2013.

  1. alayoua

    alayoua New Member

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    Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jun 28 2013

    Should the Dollar be Worried about Fed Comments?

    Fed Presidents Dudley, Powell and Lockhart spoke yesterday and with the first 2 being voting members of the FOMC this year, its no surprise that their comments triggered intraday volatility in the dollar. All 3 Fed Presidents said that it may be appropriate for the central bank to taper asset purchases in 2013 and end QE buying in mid-2014 but the markets chose to hone in on Dudley's comment that QE depends on the economic outlook and not the calendar and could be prolonged if the economy misses their forecasts. There's no question that the recent rise in U.S. yields has irritated central bankers but the fact Dudley still repeated Bernanke's timing after qualifying the conditions for QE means that this uber dove is most likely onboard with the idea of reducing asset purchases. Fed President Powell's stance was similar - while he sees the central bank scaling back purchases this year, he said it is data and not date dependent. Both Dudley and Lockhart didn't see Bernanke's press conference last week as a strong signal of Fed policy or a major shift but rather a "soft notion" of when QE could end.
    https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/28062013/

    FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
    2013-06-28 06:00 GMT | UK. Nationwide Housing Prices n.s.a (YoY) (Jun)
    2013-06-28 12:00 GMT | Germany. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jun)
    2013-06-28 12:30 GMT | Canada. Gross Domestic Product (MoM)
    2013-06-28 13:55 GMT | USA. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Jun)

    FOREX NEWS :
    2013-06-28 05:27 GMT | AUD/JPY set to recover towards 94.00 - Westpac
    2013-06-28 04:32 GMT | GBP/USD struggles around the 20 hourly EMA
    2013-06-28 03:29 GMT | EUR/AUD easing below 1.4150
    2013-06-28 02:58 GMT | USD/JPY prints fresh weekly highs shy of 99.00

    ---------------------------
    EURUSD :
    HIGH 1.30747 LOW 1.30301 BID 1.30613 ASK 1.30618 CHANGE 0.19% TIME 08 : 16:12

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Upwards scenario: An element of resistive measure could be found at 1.3077 (R1). Clearance here would open way towards to higher target at 1.3101 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to last resistance at 1.3124 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible price depreciation is limited to next support barrier at 1.3042 (S1). Break here is required to enable further downtrend formation towards to lower targets at 1.3018 (S2) and 1.2993 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.3077, 1.3101, 1.3124
    Support Levels: 1.3042, 1.3018, 1.2993

    -------------------
    GBPUSD :
    HIGH 1.52745 LOW 1.52413 BID 1.52688 ASK 1.52695 CHANGE 0.07% TIME 08 : 16:13

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
    TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Upwards scenario: GBPUSD commenced its consolidation phase on the hourly chart today. Possibility of uptrend evolvement is seen above the next resistance at 1.5283 (R1). Violation here might increase bullish pressure and validate next intraday targets at 1.5311 (R2) and 1.5338 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of market depreciation is seen below the next support level at 1.5240 (S1). Clearance here would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5213 (S2) and 1.5186 (S3) in potential.

    Resistance Levels: 1.5283, 1.5311, 1.5338
    Support Levels: 1.5240, 1.5213, 1.5186

    -------------------
    USDJPY :
    HIGH 99.022 LOW 98.335 BID 98.844 ASK 98.849 CHANGE 0.51% TIME 08 : 16:14

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Up trend
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Upwards scenario: Market sentiment is improved for the bullish oriented traders however further appreciation needs to clear barrier at 99.06 (R1) to enable our interim target at 99.36 (R2) and then any further gains would be limited to last resistance at 99.67 (R3). Downwards scenario: While instrument trades above the moving averages, our short-term bias would stay positive though penetration below the support level at 98.58 (S1) might open way towards to lower targets at 98.27 (S2) and 97.97 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 99.06, 99.36, 99.67
    Support Levels: 98.58, 98.27, 97.97

    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )
     
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