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Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 18 2013

Discussion in 'Major Currency Crosses' started by alayoua, Mar 18, 2013.

  1. alayoua

    alayoua New Member

    Jul 19, 2011
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    Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 18 2013

    Cyprus faces 'corralito' à la Argentinean

    Back in May 2012, fears that Greece may leave the EU triggered bank runs in the country, and many economist speculated with the possibility of the country establishing a “corralito”- the economic measures taken in Argentina at the end of 2001 that almost completely froze bank accounts and forbade withdrawals from U.S. dollar-denominated accounts. Bank runs extended then to Spain and Italy, although they finally come under control. But revival came back this weekend: Cyprus bail-out approval cost almost €6 billion to taxpayers, which next Tuesday –Monday will be declared bank holiday-, will find something different in their bank accounts: a one-off 9.9% levy imposed on all deposits over the insurance threshold of €100,000. For accounts below the insurance ceiling, the onetime tax will be of 6.75%.

    Cyprus PM Michael Sarris, admitted it was a tough decision, and even stated “I wish I was not the minister to do this,” although he added that “much more money could have been lost in a bankruptcy of the banking system or indeed of the country.” Without a rescue, Cyprus would default and threaten to unravel investor confidence in the EU that has been fostered by ECB’s president Mario Draghi promise to do “whatever it takes” to shore up the currency bloc. However, a precedent has been set, and this partial “corralito” may trigger exactly what is trying to prevent: an erosion in investors’ confidence in the EU, and bank runs, if not in Cyprus, in the rest of the peripheral troubled countries. Monday European opening may see bank runs, particularly in Spain and Italy, and a domino effect may force governments to take extraordinary measures. “Corralito” arrived to Europe, and may be here to stay.

    Forex Economic Calendar :
    2013-03-18 06:45 GMT | Switzerland. SECO Economic Forecasts
    2013-03-18 10:00 GMT | E.M.U. Trade Balance n.s.a. (Jan)
    2013-03-18 12:30 GMT | Canada. Foreign portfolio investment in Canadian securities (Jan)
    2013-03-18 23:15 GMT | Australia. RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speech

    Forex News :
    2013-03-18 05:52 GMT | GBP/USD stable around 1.51 despite the turmoil
    2013-03-18 05:27 GMT | Cyprus all over the place and EUR/USD below 1.29
    2013-03-18 03:25 GMT | EUR/GBP tumbles through 0.8550 as Euro sell-offs
    2013-03-18 02:43 GMT | EUR/JPY, break of 122.00 exposes 121.10/20 - V.Bednarik

    EURUSD :
    HIGH 1.29315 LOW 1.28818 BID 1.29038 ASK 1.29043 CHANGE -1.3% TIME 08:57:38


    TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration

    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Upwards scenario: Market dropped on the news from Cyprus and determined negative bias on the medium-term perspective. However break above the resistance at 1.2943 (R1) would suggest next target at 1.2971 (R1) en route towards to higher mark at 1.2999 (R3). Downwards scenario: The Asian session momentum on the downside suggests a possible move lower ahead. Key supportive bastion lie at 1.2881 (S1). Prolonged movement below it might then expose our intraday targets at 1.2857 (S2) and 1.2832 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.2943, 1.2971, 1.2999
    Support Levels: 1.2881, 1.2857, 1.2832

    GBPUSD :
    HIGH 1.51305 LOW 1.50717 BID 1.51041 ASK 1.51052 CHANGE -0.02% TIME 08:57:39



    Upwards scenario: GBPUSD trapped to the consolidation phase. Fractals level at 1.5115 (R1) offers a good resistance level. Break here is required to take the pair towards to initial targets, located at 1.5135 (R2) and 1.5156 (R3). Downwards scenario: As long as price stays below the moving averages our short-term outlook would be negative. Any extension lower the 1.5082 (S1) is being able to drive market price towards to our next targets at 1.5061 (S2) and 1.5040 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.5115, 1.5135, 1.5156
    Support Levels: 1.5082, 1.5061, 1.5040

    USDJPY :
    HIGH 94.987 LOW 94.311 BID 94.464 ASK 94.467 CHANGE -0.83% TIME 08:57:40


    TREND CONDITION : Down trend

    Upwards scenario: USDJPY has gradually climbed eased during the Asian session, having made fresh low but lately lost momentum. In terms of technical levels next resistance level could be found at 94.98 (R1). Appreciation above it would enable higher marks at 95.22 (R2) and 95.45 (R3). Downwards scenario: Our medium-term outlook remains negative. If the pair accelerates on the downside and manage to break our next support level at 94.31 (S1), it is likely to expose our next support level at 94.08 (S2) and 93.85 (S3) later on today.

    Resistance Levels: 94.98, 95.22, 95.45
    Support Levels: 94.31, 94.08, 93.85

    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

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