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Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 19 2013

Discussion in 'Major Currency Crosses' started by alayoua, Mar 19, 2013.

  1. alayoua

    alayoua New Member

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    Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 19 2013

    Will Cyprus Bailout Set Tone for Trading this Week?

    The sharp sell-off in currencies and European equities overnight indicate that investors are shocked by Cyprus' bailout news as they should be since this would be the first time in Eurozone history that depositors have taken a loss. The EUR/USD may have rebounded off its lows on speculation about a modified deal that is less aggressive but regardless of how much depositors above or below 100,000 euros are taxed, the mere possibility that they will be taxed at all undermines the credibility of the entire banking system. Optimists argue that this situation is unique to Cyprus but we don't know how reassuring a watered down deal will be as this could set a precedent for the entire region. We won't even go into how unfair it is that senior bondholders are being saved at the expense of moms and pops and that depositors with money under their mattresses are safer than depositors in the bank. What we do know is that the Cyprus bailout has set the tone for trading in an extremely data and event risk heavy week by reawakening the fear of contagion. The vote in parliament on the bailout deal has been postponed until Tuesday and this means that this risk off tone will remain prevalent for the immediate future.
    https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/19032013/

    Forex Economic Calendar :
    N/A | United Kingdom. BOE Inflation Letter
    2013-03-19 09:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Feb)
    2013-03-19 10:00 GMT | Germany. ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment (Mar)
    2013-03-19 12:30 GMT | United States. Housing Starts (MoM) (Feb)

    Forex News :
    2013-03-19 05:30 GMT | GBP/USD going nowhere around 1.5100
    2013-03-19 05:23 GMT | Euro buying interest fades ahead of 1.30
    2013-03-19 03:41 GMT | AUD/USD reverses on Rio Tinto's comments
    2013-03-19 02:31 GMT | USD/JPY breaks above 95.50

    ---------------------
    EURUSD :
    HIGH 1.29694 LOW 1.29339 BID 1.29358 ASK 1.29367 CHANGE -0.16% TIME 08:02:47

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
    TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Upwards scenario: Currently price is stabilized however on a slightly longer term market sentiment remains negative. Appreciation above the resistance level at 1.2969 (R1) might prolong corrective action towards to next targets at 1.2993 (R2) and 1.3016 (R3). Downwards scenario: Signal of instrument depreciation would be created if EURUSD depreciates below the next support level at 1.2934 (S1). We would suggest next interim targets at 1.2912 (S2) and then aim at 1.2890 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.2969, 1.2993, 1.3016
    Support Levels: 1.2934, 1.2912, 1.2890

    ---------------------------
    GBPUSD :
    HIGH 1.51128 LOW 1.5084 BID 1.50923 ASK 1.50937 CHANGE -0.09% TIME 08:02:48

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Sideway
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Upwards scenario: So far Instrument traded in consolidative phase and being unable to made significant price deviation from its average price. Our resistive barrier at 1.5115 (R1) limits upside expansion. Break here is required to establish upwards formation targeting 1.5135 (R2) and 1.5156 (R3). Downwards scenario: Bearish pressure could find momentum below the support at 1.5082 (S1). Possible downtrend expansion would open road towards to next target at 1.5061 (S2) and any further losses would then be limited to 1.5040 (S3) mark.

    Resistance Levels: 1.5115, 1.5135, 1.5156
    Support Levels: 1.5082, 1.5061, 1.5040

    ----------------------
    USDJPY :
    HIGH 95.746 LOW 95.123 BID 95.430 ASK 95.437 CHANGE 0.24% TIME 08:02:48

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Upwards scenario: Instrument has bounced back and currently trades within the bullish pattern. If It manages to break above the next resistance level at 95.75 (R1), we expect to see appreciation towards to next targets at 95.94 (R2) and 96.13 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of further price depreciation is seen below the support at 95.38 (S1). Loss here might enable bearish pressure and drive market price towards to next target at 95.19 (S2) and potentially could even expose our final target at 94.99 (S3) later on today.

    Resistance Levels: 95.75, 95.94, 96.13
    Support Levels: 95.38, 95.19, 94.99

    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Best Forex Trading Platforms | Forex Practice Account | FXCC )
     
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