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Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 21 2013

Discussion in 'Major Currency Crosses' started by alayoua, Mar 21, 2013.

  1. alayoua

    alayoua New Member

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    Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 21 2013

    Fitch downgrades Italy to BBB+, outlook negative

    Fitch Ratings decided to downgrade Italy's rating to 'BBB+' from 'A-', citing the inconclusive results of the Italian parliamentary elections and deeper recession as the main reasons. Fitch also kept negative outlook on the country, meaning Italy could see another downgrade. "The inconclusive results of the Italian parliamentary elections on 24-25 February make it unlikely that a stable new government can be formed in the next few weeks", said Fitch. "The increased political uncertainty and non-conducive backdrop for further structural reform measures constitute a further adverse shock to the real economy amidst the deep recession". Fitch also said that the ongoing recession in Italy is one of the deepest in Europe as confirmed by Q412 data.

    Following what could be described as a 'remarkable' jobs number in the United States last Friday, with the jobless rate down to 7.7% and the economy creating 236K new jobs, highest since early 2012, the US Dollar continues to be one of the big winners in the currency market. Are the stars aligning for further Greenback strength? Before touching on the prospects for further USD appreciation, especially against the Euro, an interesting phenomenon not to ignore last Friday is the positive correlation between the US Dollar and the equity market, an occurrence which has seen commentators of the market busy speculating such behaviour as an early sign of improvement in market confidence.
    https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/11032013/

    Forex Economic Calendar :
    2013-03-11 07:00 GMT | Germany. Trade Balance s.a. (Jan)
    2013-03-11 09:00 GMT | Italy. Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q4)
    2013-03-11 21:00 GMT | New Zeland. REINZ House Price Index (MoM) (Feb)
    2013-03-11 23:50 GMT | Japan. BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

    Forex News :
    2013-03-11 05:46 GMT | EUR/USD, the 1.30 flirt goes on ...
    2013-03-11 05:22 GMT | GBP/USD resting above 1.4900
    2013-03-11 03:28 GMT | AUD/JPY holding above 98 on the back of Yen weakness
    2013-03-11 01:15 GMT | EUR/JPY unchanged below 125.00


    EURUSD :
    HIGH 1.3009 LOW 1.29792 BID 1.30027 ASK 1.30035 CHANGE 0.03% TIME 08:04:55

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
    TREND CONDITION : Sideway
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Upwards scenario: Our medium-term outlook is negative for the EURUSD though possibility of price deviation is seen above the next resistance level at 1.3016 (R1). Retracement targets could be exposed at 1.3035 (R2) and 1.3054 (R3). Downwards scenario: Activation of bearish forces is possible below the support level at 1.2979 (S1). Clearance here would suggest next interim target at 1.2960 (S2) and if the price holds its momentum on the downside we would suggest final target for today at 1.2941 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.3016, 1.3035, 1.3054
    Support Levels: 1.2979, 1.2960, 1.2941

    ---------------------------
    GBPUSD :
    HIGH 1.49273 LOW 1.49009 BID 1.49263 ASK 1.49274 CHANGE 0.07% TIME 08:04:55

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
    TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

    Upwards scenario: Breaching of resistance at 1.4958 (R1) is required to provide an evidence of corrective action. Possible targets could be exposed at 1.4990 (R2) and 1.5022 (R3) later on today in such scenario. Downwards scenario: Fresh low formed today offers an important support level at 1.4899 (S1). Discounted value of GBPUSD might push through this mark and enable next visible target at 1.4866 (S2) en route to support at 1.4834 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.4958, 1.4990, 1.5022
    Support Levels: 1.4899, 1.4866, 1.4834

    ---------------------
    USDJPY :
    HIGH 96.256 LOW 95.94 BID 96.125 ASK 96.131 CHANGE 0.12% TIME 08:04:56

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Up trend
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

    Upwards scenario: Next immediate resistive barrier is seen at 96.30 (R1). If instrument gains momentum on the upside and manage to overcome it we would focus on the intraday targets at 96.68 (R2) and 97.07 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Although market price remained relatively stable, depreciation below the next support level at 95.49 (S1) might assist to recovery formation evolvement. We expect that our intraday target at 95.10 (S2) and 94.70 (S3) could be exposed later on today in such case.

    Resistance Levels: 96.30, 96.68, 97.07
    Support Levels: 95.49, 95.10, 94.70

    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( FX Central Clearing Ltd )
     
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