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Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 03 2013

Discussion in 'Major Currency Crosses' started by alayoua, May 3, 2013.

  1. alayoua

    alayoua New Member

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    Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 03 2013

    Sustainability of Dollar Rally Hinges on Payrolls

    With the European Central Bank's monetary policy announcement behind us, the focus of the forex market will now turn to the non-farm payrolls report. The newly delivered stimulus from the ECB and the better than expected U.S. jobless claims report boosted the attractiveness of the U.S. dollar against all major currencies. Whether or not the sell-off in the EUR/USD and rally in USD/JPY can be sustained will hinge on Friday's non-farm payrolls report. This week's FOMC statement tell us that that Federal Reserve officials aren't overly concerned about the health of the labor market as they completely ignored last month's sharp drop in payrolls, choosing instead to repeat that the labor market is improving.

    They better be right or else the dollar and U.S. stocks for that matter will come crashing down. Currently economists are looking for payrolls to rise by 140K in April, up from 88K in March. The drop in jobless claims and consumer confidence supports a stronger release and we believe that as long as payrolls rise by 150K or more, the dollar will rally. By cutting interest rates today and signaling that they are prepared to do more, the ECB has set a low bar for tomorrow's NFP release.
    https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/03052013/

    FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
    2013-05-03 12:30 GMT | USA.Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr)
    2013-05-03 12:30 GMT | USA.Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)/(YoY) (Apr)
    2013-05-03 12:30 GMT | USA.Unemployment Rate (Apr)
    2013-05-03 14:00 GMT | CAD.Factory Orders (MoM) (Mar)

    FOREX NEWS :
    2013-05-03 02:50 GMT | GBP/USD ends six day winning streak, fails again at 1.5600 resistance
    2013-05-03 02:12 GMT | GBP/JPY closes higher but remains in consolidation on daily chart
    2013-05-03 01:22 GMT | AUD/NZD pressing lower against 1.2050 level
    2013-05-03 01:02 GMT | EUR/USD volatile day ends with sharply lower close


    ------------------------------
    EURUSD :
    HIGH 1.30775 LOW 1.30555 BID 1.30710 ASK 1.30715 CHANGE 0.05% TIME 08 : 19:12

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
    TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Upwards scenario: On the upside potential is seen for a break above the resistance at 1.3084 (R1). In such case we would suggest next target at 1.3120 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to final resistance at 1.3156 (R3). Downwards scenario: Further correction development is limited now to the session low - 1.3057 (S1). If the price manages to surpass it we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.3037 (S2) and 1.3016 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.3084, 1.3120, 1.3156
    Support Levels: 1.3057, 1.3037, 1.3016

    ------------------------
    GBPUSD :
    HIGH 1.55408 LOW 1.552 BID 1.55240 ASK 1.55248 CHANGE -0.06% TIME 08 : 19:13

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
    TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

    Upwards scenario: Possibility of market strengthening is seen above the resistance level at 1.5573 (R1). Clearance here is required to validate next interim target at 1.5598 (R2) and any further rise would then be targeting mark at 1.5629 (R3). Downwards scenario: We would shift our short-term technical outlook to the negative if the price manage to penetrate below the key support at 1.5522 (S1). Loss here would suggest next initial targets at 1.5489 (S2) and 1.5448 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.5573, 1.5598, 1.5629
    Support Levels: 1.5522, 1.5489, 1.5448

    -------------------------
    USDJPY :
    HIGH 98.052 LOW 97.881 BID 97.987 ASK 97.991 CHANGE 0.05% TIME 08 : 19:14

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY :
    TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

    Upwards scenario: Next actual resistance level is seen at 98.15 (R1). If the market manages to surge higher, our focus would returned to the next target at 98.51 (R2) and further recovery action could be exhausted at 98.85 (R3) intraday. Downwards scenario: Any downside extension is limited now to the next support level at 97.82 (S1). Break here is required to open a route towards to next target at 97.61 (S2) and then any further easing would be targeting final support at 97.42 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 98.15, 98.51, 98.85
    Support Levels: 97.82, 97.61, 97.42

    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )
     
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