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Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Nov 04 2013

Discussion in 'Major Currency Crosses' started by alayoua, Nov 4, 2013.

  1. alayoua

    alayoua New Member

    Jul 19, 2011
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    Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Nov 04 2013

    China's non manufacturing PMI rose to 56.3, whilst fireworks may come later in the week with falling USA GDP numbers and rising unemployment...

    China's Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP), Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) came in at 56.3 over the weekend, it's a survey of about 1200 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics will release a services PMI on Nov. 5th whilst China’s Communist Party leaders enter a policy-making summit this week with the economy on an upswing, services and manufacturing surveys show. The estimates are that GDP (gross domestic product) will rise to 7.7 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, down from 7.8 percent in the July-September period. China’s top party officials will meet in Beijing from Nov. 9-12 to map out a blueprint for reform as the country heads for its slowest growth in more than two decades. Sunday evening/Monday overnight is a relatively quiet opening for high impact news events, there's a bank holiday in Japan, whilst late on Monday the retail figures for Australia are produced, with the expectation that the print comes in at 0.5% from the previous month of 0.4%. Monday sees an early raft of PMI prints published courtesy of Markit Economics; Spanish and Italian manufacturing PMIs are published with the key data print being the overall European final manufacturing PMI, predicted to come in at 51.3. The Sentix sentiment index for Europe is predicted in at 6.6 from 6.1 previously. The UK's construction PMI may be crucial to establishing how deep the UK recovery really is, the expectation is for a print at 58.9, no change from the previous month. A significant reduction would begin to bring into question the strengths of the UK's GDP figures printed later this month and perhaps encourage the BoE's MPC to adjust interest rates, or increase monetary easing.

    2013-11-04 08:58 GMT | EMU Markit Manufacturing PMI
    2013-11-04 09:30 GMT | UK PMI Construction
    2013-11-04 15:00 GMT | US Factory Orders (MoM)
    2013-11-04 23:30 GMT | AU AiG Performance of Services Index

    2013-11-04 06:26 GMT | AUD/USD trying more upside after Monday’s gap-up and consolidation; resistance 0.9515
    2013-11-04 06:03 GMT | GBP/USD recouping a good percentage of the post-Fisher losses ahead of data
    2013-11-04 05:33 GMT | EUR/GBP hovers near its Friday levels ahead of EZ/UK data
    2013-11-04 05:01 GMT | USD/JPY continues to set up a bullish stance amidst Japanese holidays

    HIGH 1.35021 LOW 1.34422 BID 1.34886 ASK 1.34890 CHANGE 0.01% TIME 08:46:51


    TREND CONDITION : Down trend

    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Upwards scenario: Upside risk aversion is seen above the next resistance level at 1.3539 (R1). Price evaluation above this level would suggest next targets at 1.3579 (R2) and 1.3620 (R3). Downwards scenario: Negative developments might be settled below the important support level at 1.3442 (S1). Any price action below it would then be targeting support level at 1.3402 (S2) and then final target could be exposed at 1.3362 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.3539, 1.3579, 1.3620
    Support Levels: 1.3442, 1.3402, 1.3362

    GBPUSD :
    HIGH 1.5939 LOW 1.59033 BID 1.59297 ASK 1.59301 CHANGE 0.05% TIME 08:46:52


    TREND CONDITION : Down trend

    Upwards scenario: Medium-term bias is clearly bearish, to resume ascending structure price is required to clear the barrier at 1.5976 (R1). Next on tap locates our intraday targets at 1.6007 (R2) and 1.6040 (R3). Downwards scenario: Although market players may prefer to increase exposure on the short positions and push the price below the support level at 1.5901 (S1). In such case we would suggest initial targets at 1.5869 (S2) and then 1.5838 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.5976, 1.6007, 1.6040
    Support Levels: 1.5901, 1.5869, 1.5838

    USDJPY :
    HIGH 98.844 LOW 98.644 BID 98.716 ASK 98.718 CHANGE 0.01% TIME 08:46:52


    TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

    Upwards scenario: Neutral hourly studies point towards to further consolidation pattern, with a break of next resistive structure at 98.87 (R1) is required to spark stronger upside action. In such case we would suggest next initial targets 99.11 (R2) and 99.32 (R3). Downwards scenario: We placed our support level at 98.58 (S1). Clearance here is liable to open way towards to our interim target at 98.35 (S2) and then might expose final aim at 98.13 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 98.87, 99.11, 99.32
    Support Levels: 98.58, 98.35, 98.13

    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

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