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Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Nov 21 2013

Discussion in 'Major Currency Crosses' started by alayoua, Nov 21, 2013.

  1. alayoua

    alayoua New Member

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    Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Nov 21 2013

    European manufacturing PMIs published Thursday could indicate the ECB's next move on interest rates

    Thursday sees the publication of Germany's and France's flash manufacturing and service PMIs together with Europe's which is expected to print at 51.6 for manufacturing and 51.9 for services. The RBA governor of Australia holds court on Thursday, whilst the UK's public net sector borrowing is published expected slightly up in at £10.1 bn. USA PPI is expected in at -0.1% whilst unemployment numbers are expected in at 333K, slightly up from the previous week. Flash manufacturing data is expected to print at 52.6. Europe's consumer confidence is expected in at -14.1 with the Philly manufacturing index for the USA expected in at 15.1, down from 19.8 the previous month. Perhaps the most illuminating comment in the latest FOMC meeting minutes, published late Wednesday evening, was the commitment that; "the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends". The U.S. Dollar Index, which monitors the greenback against 10 major peers, increased for the first time in four days, adding 0.4 percent to 1,019.10 yen late in New York. The euro declined 0.9 percent to 134.34 yen after earlier touching 135.95, the strongest level since October 2009. The shared currency fell 0.8 percent to $1.3435. The dollar slid 0.1 percent to 99.99 yen. The dollar rose versus most major peers as Federal Reserve officials said they might reduce their $85 billion in monthly bond purchases “in coming months” as the economy improves, minutes of their last meeting show.
    http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

    FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
    2013-11-21 08:58 GMT | EMU Markit Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
    2013-11-21 09:05 GMT | RBA's Governor Glenn Stevens Speech
    2013-11-21 10:05 GMT | ECB President Draghi's Speech
    2013-11-21 13:30 GMT | US Producer Price Index (YoY) (Oct)

    FOREX NEWS :
    2013-11-21 06:15 GMT | USD/JPY cracks 100.60, new 6-month high
    2013-11-21 05:05 GMT | EUR/USD maintains bearish pressure, 1.3390 is critical support Thursday
    2013-11-21 04:31 GMT | AUD/USD bearish march pauses at 0.93 ahead of RBA Stevens
    2013-11-21 03:24 GMT | BoJ keeps policy unchanged, retains 60T-70T easing plan


    EURUSD :
    HIGH 1.3442 LOW 1.34136 BID 1.34286 ASK 1.34289 CHANGE -0.07% TIME 08 : 37:15

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
    TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Upwards scenario: EURUSD tested negative side recently, however we see potential to test resistive barrier at 1.3462 (R1) later on today. Successful penetration above that level would suggest next intraday targets at 1.3492 (R2) and 1.3525 (R3) later on today. Downwards scenario: Fresh low offers a key supportive measure at 1.3412 (S1) on a downside. A violation here is liable to commence correction pattern on the bigger picture and expose our initial targets at 1.3380 (S2) and 1.3348 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.3462, 1.3492, 1.3525
    Support Levels: 1.3412, 1.3380, 1.3348

    ----------------------
    GBPUSD :
    HIGH 1.61082 LOW 1.60721 BID 1.60860 ASK 1.60869 CHANGE -0.11% TIME 08 : 37:16

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
    TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Upwards scenario: GBPUSD trapped to the consolidation phase on the hourly chart frame. Break of resistive level at 1.6177 (R1) is required to enable upwards action. Next visible targets are seen at 1.6220 (R2) and 1.6260 (R3). Downwards scenario: However, if the price manages to break our key support level at 1.6057 (S1) bearish market participants might take the initiative. Our intraday support level locates at 1.6018 (S2) and 1.5978 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.6177, 1.6220, 1.6260
    Support Levels: 1.6057, 1.6018, 1.5978

    --------------------
    USDJPY :
    HIGH 100.812 LOW 100.006 BID 100.690 ASK 100.694 CHANGE 0.66% TIME 08 : 37:17

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Up trend
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

    Upwards scenario: Market gained momentum on the upside recently and turned short-term tendency to the positive side. Further appreciation above the resistance at 100.88 (R1) might push the price towards to our targets at 101.12 (R2) and 101.36 (R3) later on today. Downwards scenario: Our next support level is placed at 100.44 (S1). Possible penetration below it might initiate bearish pressure and push the price towards to our intraday targets at 100.19 (S2) and 99.95 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 100.88, 101.12, 101.36
    Support Levels: 100.44, 100.19, 99.95

    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )
     
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