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Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Nov 25 2013

Discussion in 'Major Currency Crosses' started by alayoua, Nov 25, 2013.

  1. alayoua

    alayoua New Member

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    Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Nov 25 2013

    Iran's real rises versus the U.S. dollar as historic agreement reached whilst oil falls circa one percent.

    Hedge-fund managers and other large institutional speculators increased their net-long position in two-year note futures to the highest level since August, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. Speculative long positions, or bets that prices will rise, outnumbered short positions by 34,011 contracts in the week ending Nov. 19th on the Chicago Board of Trade, this was up 19 percent, from the week previous. The benchmark 10-year yield rose four basis points last week, or 0.04 percentage point, to 2.74 percent in New York. The price of the 2.75 percent note maturing in November 2023 was 100 2/32. A gauge of U.S. company credit risk fell to its lowest level since 2007 as job openings (JOLTS) climbed to a five-year high. The Markit CDX North American Investment Grade Index, a credit-default swaps benchmark investors use to hedge against losses, or to speculate on creditworthiness, decreased 1.7 basis points to 68.8 basis points in New York trading last week. The benchmark reached the lowest closing level since November 2007. Iran’s currency strengthened more than 2 percent as the Nation won access about $7 billion in relief from sanctions after agreeing to limit its nuclear program, ending a decade-long diplomatic stalemate. The rial appreciated by 2.3 percent to 29,300 a dollar on Sunday in Tehran compared with 30,000 yesterday, according to prices provided by street traders in the Iranian currency black market. The currency had lost more than half its value in the year before President Hassan Rouhani’s election in June, partly as a consequence of sanctions denying Iran access to the global financial system. Iran’s gross domestic product declined by approx. 5.4 percent in the fiscal year ending in March. Sanctions have pushed the country’s oil output to the lowest since 1990.
    http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

    FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
    2013-11-25 15:00 GMT | USA. Pending Home Sales (YoY) (Oct)
    2013-11-25 15:30 GMT | USA. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index (Nov)
    2013-11-25 22:00 GMT | Australia. RBA Deputy Governor Lowe Speech
    2013-11-25 23:50 GMT | Japan. BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

    FOREX NEWS :
    2013-11-25 06:16 GMT | Gold suffers intraday flash crash, off $12 from 1238.00 to 1,226.00
    2013-11-25 05:16 GMT | AUD/USD breaks below Friday's low as bounces keep failing
    2013-11-25 05:10 GMT | EUR/JPY touches Fibonacci projection at 137.90 and backs off temporarily
    2013-11-25 04:41 GMT | GBP/JPY closes week above LT key level of 163.52; bears running for cover

    -------------------
    EURUSD :
    HIGH 1.356 LOW 1.35368 BID 1.35368 ASK 1.35371 CHANGE -0.14% TIME 08:13:00

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
    TREND CONDITION : Sideway
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Upwards scenario: Next barrier on the upside lie at 1.3563 (R1). Surpassing of this level might enable our initial target at 1.3583 (R2) and any further gains would then be limited to last resistive structure at 1.3608 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside our attention is shifted to the immediate support level at 1.3520 (S1). Break here is required to enable bearish forces and expose our intraday targets at 1.3498 (S2) and 1.3473 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.3563, 1.3583, 1.3608
    Support Levels: 1.3520, 1.3498, 1.3473

    -------------------
    GBPUSD :
    HIGH 1.62401 LOW 1.62055 BID 1.62064 ASK 1.62073 CHANGE -0.1% TIME 08:13:01

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
    TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Upwards scenario: Immediate resistance at 1.6236 (R1) remains in near-term focus, climb above this level might open way for a stronger move towards to next interim target at 1.6276 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to final resistive measure at 1.6309 (R3). Downwards scenario: Any downside extension is limited now to the next support level at 1.6188 (S1). Break here is required to open a route towards to next target at 1.6145 (S2) and then any further easing would be targeting final support at 1.6108 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.6236, 1.6276, 1.6309
    Support Levels: 1.6188, 1.6145, 1.6108

    --------------------------
    USDJPY :
    HIGH 101.917 LOW 101.139 BID 101.879 ASK 101.882 CHANGE 0.63% TIME 08:13:02

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Up trend
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

    Upwards scenario: Any upside action is limited now to the next resistive structure at 102.02 (R1). Clearance here might shift trader’s sentiment to bullish side and open road towards to our initial targets at 102.21 (R2) and 102.50 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, risk of correction development is seen below the next support at 101.20 (S1). Possible price downgrade would suggest next initial targets at 100.99 (S2) and 100.77 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 102.02, 102.21, 102.50
    Support Levels: 101.20, 100.99, 100.77

    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )
     
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