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Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Oct 01 2013

Discussion in 'Major Currency Crosses' started by alayoua, Oct 1, 2013.

  1. alayoua

    alayoua New Member

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    Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Oct 01 2013

    The US government shutdown - truth or dare

    Early in the overnight/early morning session we'll have received the RBA decision regarding the base rate for Australia, this will be accompanied by a statement concerning the decision, which is expected to keep the current rate at 2.5%. The U.S. government looks set for its first partial shutdown in over 17 years, with no signs of compromise from the Congress or the White House. The U.S. has had 17 funding gaps from 1977 to 1996. In 1995 and 1996, interruptions lasted from Nov 14th to Nov 19th and from Dec 16th to Jan 6th, as Republicans led by House Speaker Newt Gingrich clashed with President Bill Clinton. Equity index futures are down on the USA equity markets, the DJIA equity index future is down 0.98 at the time of writing, leaving the index at 15046, very close to the critical 15,000 level. SPX equity index future is down 0.62%. European equity index futures are mainly in the red, STOXX down 0.9%, FTSE down 0.79% and the DAX down 0.87%. The U.S. Dollar Index, tracking the performance of a basket of the 10 leading global currencies versus the dollar, fell for a second trading-day, declining by 0.1 percent to 1,011.85 late in the New York session, after weakening by as much as 0.2 percent. The yen was little changed at 98.30 per dollar after touching 97.50, the strongest level since Aug 29th. Japan’s currency fell 0.1 percent to 132.93 versus the euro after appreciating to 131.38, the strongest level witnessed since Sept 9th. The euro was little changed at $1.3527.
    http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

    FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
    2013-10-01 09:00 GMT | EU.EMU Unemployment Rate (Aug)
    2013-10-01 12:58 GMT | US. Markit Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
    2013-10-01 14:00 GMT | US. Construction Spending (MoM) (Aug)
    2013-10-01 14:00 GMT | US. ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep)

    FOREX NEWS :
    2013-10-01 05:18 GMT | AUD/JPY continues short-term upside following Aussie rate decision and comments
    2013-10-01 04:39 GMT | EUR/USD eyes 1.3550 as shutdown kicks in
    2013-10-01 04:31 GMT | USD/JPY slipping and sliding now that US government shutdown is a reality
    2013-10-01 04:01 GMT | GBP/USD is spiking as the Senate votes down the House spending bill

    ---------------------
    EURUSD :
    HIGH 1.35519 LOW 1.35174 BID 1.35448 ASK 1.35452 CHANGE 0.14% TIME 08:24:34

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Sideway
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Upwards scenario: Next resistance level is seen at 1.3555 (R1). Subsequently loss here might create upside momentum and drive market price towards to our initial targets at 1.3578 (R2) and 1.3600 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Possible pull back development is limited now to the key supportive barrier at 1.3517 (S1). Only loss here would be considered as a beginning of a retracement expansion. Our intraday targets locates at 1.3472 (S2) and 1.3435 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.3555, 1.3578, 1.3600
    Support Levels: 1.3517, 1.3472, 1.3435

    --------------------
    GBPUSD :
    HIGH 1.62465 LOW 1.61823 BID 1.62370 ASK 1.62374 CHANGE 0.32% TIME 08:24:35

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Up trend
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Upwards scenario: The local peak at 1.6247 (R1) offers an important resistive level. Any penetration above it might shift the balance to the bullish side and validate our intraday targets at 1.6279 (R2) and 1.6308 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside our attention is shifted to the immediate support level at 1.6207 (S1). Break here is required to enable bearish forces and expose our intraday targets at 1.6180 (S2) and 1.6139 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.6247, 1.6279, 1.6308
    Support Levels: 1.6207, 1.6180, 1.6139

    ---------------------------
    USDJPY :
    HIGH 98.728 LOW 98.031 BID 98.124 ASK 98.129 CHANGE -0.09% TIME 08:24:36

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
    TREND CONDITION : Down trend
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Neutral
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Upwards scenario: Break above the next resistance level at 98.56 (R1) is required to generate upside action and trigger our intraday targets at 98.81 (R2) and 99.05 (R3). Downwards scenario: Further correction development is limited now to the session low - 97.95 (S1). If the price manages to surpass it we would suggest next intraday targets at 97.63 (S2) and 97.30 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 98.56, 98.81, 99.05
    Support Levels: 97.95, 97.63, 97.30

    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )
     
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