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Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Oct 04 2013

Discussion in 'Major Currency Crosses' started by alayoua, Oct 4, 2013.

  1. alayoua

    alayoua New Member

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    Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Oct 04 2013

    US interest rates could skyrocket

    Due to the govt. shutdown there will be no NFP number printed by the BLS on Friday. Two FOMC members hold court in the afternoon session, once again, despite the turmoil in govt. due to the shutdown, investors will be looking for clues with regards to potential tapering of the Fed's $85 billion per month asset purchase scheme. The US Treasury warned on Thursday that the budget impasse between the Republicans and Democrats in Washington risked plunging the world's biggest economy into its worst slump since the Great Depression; "A default would be unprecedented and has the potential to be catastrophic. Credit markets could freeze, the value of the dollar could plummet, US interest rates could skyrocket, the negative spillovers could reverberate around the world, and there might be a financial crisis and recession that could echo the events of 2008 or worse."
    http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

    FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
    2011-08-10 06:00 GMT | DE Producer Price Index (MoM) (Aug)
    2011-08-10 09:00 GMT | EMU Producer Price Index (YoY) (Aug)
    2011-08-10 14:00 GMT | CA Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (Sep)
    2011-08-10 17:45 GMT | US Fed Minneapolis's Narayana Kocherlakota speech

    FOREX NEWS :
    2013-10-04 05:49 GMT | Asian bourses closing on the down side
    2013-10-04 04:19 GMT | EUR/GBP sails its way down to 0.8423 session lows
    2013-10-04 04:06 GMT | AUD/USD remains resilient amidst a poor risk-off environment
    2013-10-04 03:35 GMT | EUR/USD losing momentum? Gains wiped out

    -----------------
    EURUSD
    HIGH 1.36317 LOW 1.36183 BID 1.36259 ASK 1.36263 CHANGE 0.05% TIME 08 : 40:02

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Up trend
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Upwards scenario: On the upside EURUSD is limited to the next resistive barrier at 1.3646 (R1). If the price manages to surpass this mark we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.3668 (R2) and 1.3690 (R3). Downwards scenario: Our next support level is placed at important technical level- 1.3607 (S1). Clearance here might stimulate bearish market participants to drive market price towards to our initial targets at 1.3584 (S2) and 1.3561 (S3) in potential.

    Resistance Levels: 1.3646, 1.3668, 1.3690
    Support Levels: 1.3607, 1.3584, 1.3561

    ---------------------
    GBPUSD :
    HIGH 1.61779 LOW 1.61532 BID 1.61721 ASK 1.61726 CHANGE 0.1% TIME 08:40:03

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
    TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Upwards scenario: On the upside potential is seen for a break above the resistance at 1.6187 (R1). In such case we would suggest next target at 1.6215 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to final resistance at 1.6241 (R3). Downwards scenario: Medium term bias is clearly positive however we expect recovery action if the price manages to overcome key supportive bastion at 1.6150 (S1). In such case we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.6125 (S2) and 1.6099 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.6187, 1.6215, 1.6241
    Support Levels: 1.6150, 1.6125, 1.6099

    ------------------
    USDJPY :
    HIGH 97.403 LOW 97.034 BID 97.111 ASK 97.113 CHANGE -0.15% TIME 08 : 40:04

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
    TREND CONDITION : Down trend
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Upwards scenario: Mark at 97.50 (R1) acts as next resistive barrier on the way if the pair commence recovery phase. Break here is required to achieve higher targets at 97.80 (R2) and 98.10 (R3) later on today. Downwards scenario: In terms of technical levels, risk of price depreciation is seen below the support level at 96.92 (S1). Loss here would suggest to monitor marks at 96.62 (S2) and 96.33 (S3) as possible intraday targets.

    Resistance Levels: 97.50, 97.80, 98.10
    Support Levels: 96.92, 96.62, 96.33

    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )
     
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