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Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Oct 09 2013

Discussion in 'Major Currency Crosses' started by alayoua, Oct 9, 2013.

  1. alayoua

    alayoua New Member

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    Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Oct 09 2013

    IMF lowers global growth targets as USA debt ceiling impasse drags on

    The IMF now expects the global economy to expand by 2.9% in 2013 and 3.6% in 2014, down by 0.3 and 0.2 points respectively on its last predictions, made in July, despite signs of recovery in the euro area. Obama's late statement on Tuesday evening spooked the USA indices, at the start of his speech the DJIA was hovering around a 0.7% loss on the day, by the time he'd finished and the markets had closed the DJIA was down 1.07%, the SPX closed down 1.23% and the NASDAQ down a precise 2.00% on the day. Equity index futures are, at the time of writing, pointing to another negative day on both the European and USA markets. The DJIA equity index future is down 0.92%, SPX down 1.06%, NASDAQ down 1.69%. UK FTSE equity index future is down 0.91%, CAC down 0.73% and the DAX equity index future is down 0.24% The dollar increased 0.2 percent to 96.88 yen late in New York on Tuesday after gaining as much as 0.6 percent earlier in the day. The greenback was little changed at $1.3573 per euro after rising 0.2 percent earlier. The 17-nation shared common currency appreciated by 0.1 percent to 131.49 yen. The dollar rose versus 13 of its 16 most-traded peers as the U.S. political stalemate persisted and President Barack Obama warned the nation faces a “very deep recession” if Congress doesn’t raise the debt limit, fueling safe haven demand for the dollar.
    http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

    FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
    2013-10-09 08:30 GMT | UK Industrial Production (YoY) (Aug)
    2013-10-09 14:00 GMT | UK NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) (Sep)
    2013-10-09 18:00 GMT | US FOMC Minutes
    2013-10-09 22:00 GMT | ECB President Draghi's Speech

    FOREX NEWS :
    2013-10-09 03:36 GMT | GBP/USD rally fizzles early Tuesday likely on “fade the news” reaction to Yellen news
    2013-10-09 03:22 GMT | EUR/USD violates support printing 1.3562 session lows
    2013-10-09 02:53 GMT | AUD/USD tumbling after poor Aussie data
    2013-10-09 02:26 GMT | USD/JPY spikes to 97.36 peaks on +43 pips gains

    ----------------------
    EURUSD
    HIGH 1.36046 LOW 1.35617 BID 1.35630 ASK 1.35633 CHANGE -0.08% TIME 08 : 42:32

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
    TREND CONDITION : Sideway
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Upwards scenario: EURUSD tested negative territory today though appreciation above the resistive structure at 1.3584 (R1) might shift short-term tendency to the bullish side and validate our intraday targets at 1.3596 (R2) and 1.3607 (R3). Downwards scenario: Market decline below the support level at 1.3557 (S1) might shift market sentiment to the bearish side. In such scenario we expect next targets to be exposed today at 1.3546 (S2) and 1.3535 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.3584, 1.3596, 1.3607
    Support Levels: 1.3557, 1.3546, 1.3535

    ------------------------
    GBPUSD
    HIGH 1.61219 LOW 1.60612 BID 1.60664 ASK 1.60672 CHANGE -0.1% TIME 08 : 42:33

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
    TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

    Upwards scenario: From the technical side, medium - term tendency is bearish, however new step of recovery phase is possible above the resistance level at 1.6086 (R1). Loss here would open way towards to next targets at 1.6106 (R2) and 1.6127 (R3). Downwards scenario: Our next support level is placed at 1.6058 (S1). Possible penetration below it might initiate bearish pressure and gradually push the price towards to our intraday targets at 1.6039 (S2) and 1.6019 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.6086, 1.6106, 1.6127
    Support Levels: 1.6058, 1.6039, 1.6019

    --------------------
    USDJPY :
    HIGH 97.446 LOW 96.825 BID 97.404 ASK 97.408 CHANGE 0.56% TIME 08 : 42:34

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

    Upwards scenario: USDJPY trapped to the correction phase on the hourly chart frame. Break of resistive level at 97.48 (R1) is required to enable upwards action. Next visible targets are seen at 97.67 (R2) and 97.85 (R3). Downwards scenario: Though, we still keep the bearish scenario in focus. Risk of market decline is seen below the support level at 97.18 (S1). Loss here would enable initial targets at 97.00 (S2) and 96.80 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 97.48, 97.67, 97.85
    Support Levels: 97.18, 97.00, 96.80

    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )
     
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