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Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Oct 31 2013

Discussion in 'Major Currency Crosses' started by alayoua, Oct 31, 2013.

  1. alayoua

    alayoua New Member

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    Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Oct 31 2013

    China's top four banks post bad loan surge whilst the markets await data prints on Chinese growth on Thursday evening

    In the overnight/early morning session the BOJ of Japan conducts their own version of an FOMC meeting. The results may affect the value of yen and the Nikkei. They'll deliver a monetary policy statement, an outlook report and then conduct a press conference. On Thursday German retail sales are expected to rise by 0.5%, Italy's employment rate is expected to climb to 12.4%, EU unemployment is expected to come in at 12%. Canada's GDP for the month is expected in at 0.2%, whilst USA weekly unemployment claims are expected in at 341K, this print is still liable to potentially deliver a surprise given the temporary USA govt. shutdown might still be working its way through the system. Late in the evening two extremely important prints from China are published. The manufacturing PMI and the HSBC final manufacturing PMI. China’s top four banks have posted their biggest increase in bad loans since 2010 as a five-year credit surge has left companies with excess manufacturing capacity and slower profit growth amid an economic slowdown. Nonperforming loans at Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd, China Construction Bank Corp, Agricultural Bank of China Ltd and Bank of China Ltd rose 3.5 percent in the three months to Sept. 30th from June to a combined 329.4 billion yuan ($54 billion). Profit rose to 209 billion yuan.
    http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

    FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
    2013-10-31 07:00 GMT | DE Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep)
    2013-10-31 10:00 GMT | EMU Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Oct)
    2013-10-31 12:30 GMT | US Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 25)
    2013-10-31 13:30 GMT | CA Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (Aug)

    FOREX NEWS :
    2013-10-31 06:32 GMT | EUR/USD downwards on Nowotny Comments, less dovish FOMC than expected
    2013-10-31 06:28 GMT | BOJ semi-annual report: QE to achieve inflation goal
    2013-10-31 05:57 GMT | FOMC to begin taper at some point in coming quarters - Nomura
    2013-10-31 05:39 GMT | GBP/JPY little changed after solid Japanese data, BoJ decision

    -------------------------
    EURUSD
    HIGH 1.37386 LOW 1.36893 BID 1.37035 ASK 1.37038 CHANGE -0.23% TIME 08:43:19

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
    TREND CONDITION : Down trend
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Upwards scenario: Upwards penetration is limited to the important resistance level at 1.3718 (R1). Clearance here might open a route towards to our initial target at 1.3734 (R2) and then further price appreciation would be targeting resistance at 1.3752 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, negative development might occur below the immediate support level at 1.3698 (S1). Clearance here would enable our next intraday targets at 1.3674 (S2) and 1.3656 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.3718, 1.3734, 1.3752
    Support Levels: 1.3698, 1.3674, 1.3656

    ---------------------
    GBPUSD :
    HIGH 1.60432 LOW 1.60059 BID 1.60130 ASK 1.60132 CHANGE -0.16% TIME 08:43:20

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
    TREND CONDITION : Down trend
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Upwards scenario: We see potential to test our resistive barrier at 1.6043 (R1) later on today. Successful penetration above this mark might keep bullish sentiment in play and validate our intraday targets at 1.6077 (R2) and 1.6110 (R3). Downwards scenario: Next support level lies at 1.5994 (S1). Penetration below it might shift short-term tone to the negative side. Our intraday targets locates at 1.5961 (S2) and 1.5928 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.6043, 1.6077, 1.6110
    Support Levels: 1.5994, 1.5961, 1.5928

    ---------------------
    USDJPY :
    HIGH 98.571 LOW 98.272 BID 98.352 ASK 98.356 CHANGE -0.16% TIME 08:43:21

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Up trend
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Upwards scenario: USDJPY is approaching our next resistive measure at 98.67 (R1) on the upside. Break here is required to enable bullish potential and expose our interim target at 98.82 (R2). Further price appreciation would then be limited to last resistance at 98.96 (R3). Downwards scenario: If the price failed to clear the resistive measure we expect to see recovery action. Clearance of our next support level at 98.15 (S1) is required to enable our targets at 97.99 (S2) and 97.84 (S3) in potential.

    Resistance Levels: 98.67, 98.82, 98.96
    Support Levels: 98.15, 97.99, 97.84

    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )
     
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