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Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 06 2013

Discussion in 'Major Currency Crosses' started by alayoua, Sep 6, 2013.

  1. alayoua

    alayoua New Member

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    Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 06 2013

    ECB's Draghi reiterates forward guidance on rates

    At the press conference following the ECB Governing Council's decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.5% in September, president Mario Draghi reiterated that key interest rates would remain at the current or lower levels for an extended period of time.He stressed that economic activity in the Eurozone is improving, as confidence indicators show, and that the ECB is ready to support the recovery with its accommodative monetary policy. Current geopolitical tensions are one of the main threats to the recovery, he said. Inflation in the Eurozone is low and should remain at this level in the coming months. Upside risks on inflation are connected with higher indirect taxes and commodity prices, while downside risks stem from weaker growth. The ECB has risen its Eurozone 2013 growth forecast to -0.4% from -0.6% and lowered the projection for 2014 to 1% from 1.1%. As far as inflation is concerned, the forecast for 2013 was hiked to 1.5% from 1.4% this year and left unchanged at 1.3% for 2014. Mario Draghi also stressed the importance of setting up the banking union quickly, as "weak loan dynamics continue to reflect the current state of the business cycle."
    http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

    FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
    2013-09-06 08:30 GMT | UK. Consumer Inflation Expectations
    2013-09-06 12:30 GMT | US. Nonfarm Payrolls (Aug)
    2013-09-06 12:30 GMT | CA. Unemployment Rate (Aug)
    2013-09-06 14:00 GMT | Uk. NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) (Aug)

    FOREX NEWS :
    2013-09-06 05:29 GMT | USD/JPY close to 100.00 area ahead of NFP
    2013-09-06 04:17 GMT | USD eases in Asia ahead of NFP; Yen strengthens
    2013-09-06 03:57 GMT | Technicians need gold to break 1,351.60 to validate bearish call
    2013-09-06 02:51 GMT | Sell EUR/USD into 1.3150, TP 1.3090 ahead of NFP - JPMorgan


    EURUSD :
    HIGH 1.31384 LOW 1.31161 BID 1.31310 ASK 1.31315 CHANGE 0.09% TIME 08 : 50:06

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
    TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Upwards scenario: On the upside, fractals level at 1.3156 (R1) offers an important resistive structure. Any penetration above that level would suggest next intraday targets at 1.3179 (R2) and 1.3202 (R3). Downwards scenario: As long as price stays below the 20 SMA our technical outlook would be negative. Extension lower the key support level at 1.3110 (S1) is being able to drive market price towards to our next targets at 1.3087 (S2) and 1.3065 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.3156, 1.3179, 1.3202
    Support Levels: 1.3110, 1.3087, 1.3065

    ------------------
    GBPUSD :
    HIGH 1.56133 LOW 1.55862 BID 1.56054 ASK 1.56059 CHANGE 0.1% TIME 08 : 50:07

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
    TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

    Upwards scenario: GBPUSD stabilized on the hourly chart however appreciation above the next resistance at 1.5627 (R1) might be a good catalyst for an upwards formation towards to next targets at 1.5647 (R2) and 1.5666 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, new phase of retracement formation might commence below the important support level at 1.5572 (S1). Break here is required to validate our targets at 1.5552 (S2) and 1.5531 (S3) later on today.

    Resistance Levels: 1.5327, 1.5647, 1.5666
    Support Levels: 1.5572, 1.5552, 1.5531

    -----------------
    USDJPY :
    HIGH 100.225 LOW 99.695 BID 99.735 ASK 99.739 CHANGE -0.37% TIME 08 : 50:07

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
    TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

    Upwards scenario: Upside risk aversion is seen above the next resistance level at 100.15 (R1). Appreciation above it might lead to the positive intraday bias formation towards to our next targets at 100.44 (R2) and 100.73 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Any downside extension is limited now to the next support level at 99.56 (S1). Below here we see potential for the price regress towards to next targets at 99.29 (S2) and 99.00 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 100.15, 100.44, 100.73
    Support Levels: 99.56, 99.29, 99.00

    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )
     
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