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Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 09 2013

Discussion in 'Major Currency Crosses' started by alayoua, Sep 9, 2013.

  1. alayoua

    alayoua New Member

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    Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 09 2013

    EUR/USD higher in early Europe after rising on Friday but still gets no love from ECB

    The EUR/USD opened higher the week after having dropped for a second week in a row. Elaborating on, the single currency managed to have a “green” day on Friday due to dismal NFP data, but still closed the week lower against the greenback for a second consecutive week, partly on Draghi’s more than expected dovish stance. ECB Draghi seems to remain very cautious about the Euro zone return to growth and not much enthusiastic about recovery in the Euro land. On the opposite side, despite the dismal NFP, the consensus in the market is for the Fed to announce the commencement of gradual tapering in the meeting of 17th and 18th of September. Traders should bear into consideration the Sentix Investor Confidence which will be released at 8.30 GMT hours and a further improvement in sentiment is anticipated.

    As long as the view for tapering remains “on”, any potential EUR/USD rallies will be well capped. Despite the great disappointment on Friday’s NFP release, hints from the Fed points to tapering, even in a small gradual scale such as of $15bililion/$20 billion per month. What’s more, the power-horse of Europe as well depicted in the industrial figures released last week, isn’t strong enough. There are political problems in coalition forces in Italy, a third bailout package in Greece seems inevitable and there is also political uncertainty in Cyprus.
    http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

    FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
    2013-09-09 08:30 GMT | EMU Sentix Investor Confidence (Aug)
    2013-09-09 12:30 GMT | CA Building Permits (MoM) (Jul)
    2013-09-09 19:00 GMT | US Consumer Credit Change (Jul)
    2013-09-09 23:50 GMT | BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

    FOREX NEWS :
    2013-09-09 05:44 GMT | USD/CHF bouncing modestly ahead of data following bearish reversal Friday
    2013-09-09 04:16 GMT | EUR/GBP limited below 0.8430 on Euro weakness
    2013-09-09 04:05 GMT | AUD/USD is heading upwards on China data and after weekend elections
    2013-09-09 03:38 GMT | Playing USD/JPY from the long side - JPMorgan


    EURUSD :
    HIGH 1.31812 LOW 1.31642 BID 1.31718 ASK 1.31723 CHANGE -0.05% TIME 08:36:45

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Upwards scenario: Further positive bias development would face next resistive measure at 1.3190 (R1). If the price manages to overcome it we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.3212 (R2) and 1.3234 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, our bearish expectations remain intact below the key support level at 1.3155 (S1). Price penetration below it would allow further declines towards to lower targets at 1.3134 (S2) and 1.3112 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.3190, 1.3212, 1.3234
    Support Levels: 1.3155, 1.3134, 1.3112

    ---------------------
    GBPUSD :
    HIGH 1.56455 LOW 1.56158 BID 1.56441 ASK 1.56443 CHANGE 0.11% TIME 08:36:46

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
    TREND CONDITION : Sideway
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

    Upwards scenario: GBPUSD is approaching our key resistive measure at 1.5651 (R1). If the price manages to overcome it we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5668 (R2) and 1.5685 (R3). Downwards scenario: Medium-term bias remains sideways orientated. A dip lower the key support measure at 1.5613 (S1) would open a route towards to lower targets at 1.5596 (S2) and 1.5579 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.5651, 1.5668, 1.5685
    Support Levels: 1.5613, 1.5596, 1.5579

    ------------------
    USDJPY :
    HIGH 100.105 LOW 99.49 BID 99.645 ASK 99.649 CHANGE 0.56% TIME 08:36:47

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Upwards scenario: Measures of resistance might be activating when the pair approaches 100.11 (R1) price level. Break here would suggest next interim target at 100.44 (R2) and If the pair keeps its momentum we would expect an exposure of 100.75 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside bearish pressure might push the price below the support at 99.29 (S1). Further downside extension would open road towards to next target at 98.97 (S2) and any further losses would then be limited to 98.64 (S3) mark.

    Resistance Levels: 100.11, 100.44, 100.75
    Support Levels: 99.29, 98.97, 98.64

    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )
     
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