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Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 18 2013

Discussion in 'Major Currency Crosses' started by alayoua, Sep 18, 2013.

  1. alayoua

    alayoua New Member

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    Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 18 2013
    All eyes on the Fed as investors weigh September taper odds

    As the September Fed monetary policy meeting is drawing near, the debate on the FOMC's possible decision to start scaling back the asset purchase program is becoming more and more heated. Recent developments, such as the disappointing August NFP numbers, as well as the ongoing Syrian conflict, have shaken economists' confidence as to whether the QE taper will really be initiated next week. “With a job market 'far from satisfactory' and a promise to adjust monetary policy depending on economic conditions, it would not be a surprise if the Fed postpones the reduction of monthly asset purchases until the next meeting in late October,” Ilian Yotov suggests. Alexandra Estiot also doesn't expect the Fed to make the move at the upcoming meeting, reasoning that “the likeliness of inflation pressures showing up is close to zero,” which means “the cost, in terms of inflation, of ending QE3 too late is nil, while the benefits, even if very difficult to clearly assess, are positive.” Despite the doubts about whether the Fed will start reducing QE in September, all of the economists agree with Steve Ruffley that the FOMC “are planning to taper by the end of the year and nothing will change this.”
    http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

    FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
    2013-09-18 08:30 GMT | Bank of England Minutes
    2013-09-18 18:00 GMT | US Fed Interest Rate Decision
    2013-09-18 18:30 GMT | US Fed's Monetary Policy Statement and press conference
    2013-09-18 22:45 GMT | NZ Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q2)

    FOREX NEWS :
    2013-09-18 05:21 GMT | USD/CHF muted ahead of FOMC minutes
    2013-09-18 05:05 GMT | EUR/USD rebounds from ST dip but remains below 1.3432 ceiling ahead of US data / news
    2013-09-18 04:58 GMT | EUR/GBP battling to recover the 0.84 handle ahead of BoE
    2013-09-18 04:32 GMT | GBP/USD holding below the flat line ahead of BOE minutes and FOMC fun


    -------------------------
    EURUSD :
    HIGH 1.33639 LOW 1.33468 BID 1.33619 ASK 1.33621 CHANGE 0.03% TIME 08 : 43:12

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Sideway
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Upwards scenario: EURUSD trapped to the consolidation mode on the hourly chart frame after the initial uptrend formation. Next resistive barrier is seen at 1.3384 (R1), break here is required to enable next attractive points at 1.3405 (R2) and 1.3427 (R3). Downwards scenario: Yesterday low offers a key supportive measure at 1.3324 (S1). A violation here is liable to commence correction pattern on the bigger picture and expose our initial targets at 1.3301 (S2) and 1.3275 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.3384, 1.3405, 1.3427
    Support Levels: 1.3324, 1.3301, 1.3275

    ----------------------
    GBPUSD :
    HIGH 1.59146 LOW 1.58919 BID 1.59133 ASK 1.59136 CHANGE 0.07% TIME 08 : 43:13

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Sideway
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

    Upwards scenario: Local high offers a key resistive barrier at 1.5936 (R1). Subsequently loss here might create upside momentum and drive market price towards to our initial targets at 1.5971 (R2) and 1.6008 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: On the other hand, depreciation below the support level at 1.5885 (S1) would suggest next intraday target at 1.5851 (S2) and any further weakening would then be limited to final support level at 1.5816 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.5936, 1.5971, 1.6008
    Support Levels: 1.5885, 1.5851, 1.5816

    -------------------
    USDJPY :
    HIGH 99.336 LOW 99.103 BID 99.194 ASK 99.197 CHANGE 0.08% TIME 08 : 43:13

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

    Upwards scenario: Possible bullish penetration might face next challenge at 99.38 (R1). Break here would suggest next target at 99.58 (R2) en route towards to last resistance for today at 99.77 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside, we see potential to positively retest our supportive measure at 99.03 (S1). Clearance here is required to open route towards to our initial targets at 98.84 (S2) and 98.64 (S3) in potential.

    Resistance Levels: 99.38, 99.58, 99.77
    Support Levels: 99.03, 98.84, 98.64

    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )
     
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