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Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 19 2013

Discussion in 'Major Currency Crosses' started by alayoua, Sep 19, 2013.

  1. alayoua

    alayoua New Member

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    Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 19 2013

    The Fed decides to maintain the status quo; No taper

    The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain its interest rate unchanged at 0.25%. Same story with the bond buying pace at $85Bn as officials need more information that the economy is growing at a sustainable pace. According to a recent press release, the Fed affirms that the pace of bond purchases depends on the economic outlook. The inflation is still low, financial market conditions are tight while the fiscal retrenchment could be damaging, so the FOMC needs more signs of progress.

    "Accordingly, the Committee decided to continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month and longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month." The Fed has lowered its growth expectations and now officials forecast the US GDP to slowdown in 2016 to 2.5%-3.3% range, from 3.0%-3.5% in 2014. They see 2013 to show a 2.0%-2.3% growth in the United States. The unemployment rate is expected to finish the year around 7.2%-7.3% and to decline to 6.5%-6.8% in 2014, 5.8%-6.2% in 2015 and 5.4%-5.9% in 2016.
    http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

    FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
    2013-09-19 07:30 GMT | SW SNB Interest Rate Decision
    2013-09-19 08:30 GMT | UK Retail Sales (YoY) (Aug)
    2013-09-19 14:00 GMT | US Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) (Aug)
    2013-09-19 23:50 GMT | JP Foreign investment in Japan stocks (Sep 13)

    FOREX NEWS :
    2013-09-19 04:52 GMT | USD licking its wounds; China markets closed
    2013-09-19 04:34 GMT | USD/CHF slightly lower at 0.9119 ahead of big data; ultimate dowside may be 0.9073
    2013-09-19 04:33 GMT | Fed relies heavily on low yields regarding “tapering” – RBS
    2013-09-19 04:18 GMT | AUD/USD slightly downwards but still dancing close to 0.9500 area

    ----------
    EURUSD :
    HIGH 1.3536 LOW 1.3501 BID 1.35318 ASK 1.35320 CHANGE 0.08% TIME 08 : 40:15

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Sideway
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Upwards scenario: Medium-term bias is clearly bullish oriented, however, to resume ascending structure price is required to clear the barrier at 1.3543 (R1). Next on tap locates our intraday targets at 1.3567 (R2) and 1.3593 (R3).Downwards scenario: On the other hand, our next support measure lies at 1.3499 (S1). Decline below it would enable lower targets at 1.3474 (S2) and 1.3448 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.3543, 1.3567, 1.3593
    Support Levels: 1.3499, 1.3474, 1.3448

    -------------------
    GBPUSD :
    HIGH 1.61478 LOW 1.61146 BID 1.61302 ASK 1.61307 CHANGE -0.08% TIME 08 : 40:16

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Up trend
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Upwards scenario: On the upside market might get more incentives above the immediate resistive barrier at 1.6168 (R1). If the price manages to overcome it we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.6215 (R2) and 1.6264 (R3). Downwards scenario: Although market players may prefer to increase exposure on the short positions and push the price below the support level at 1.6089 (S1). Possible price devaluation would suggest initial targets at 1.6040 (S2) and then 1.5989 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.6168, 1.6215, 1.6264
    Support Levels: 1.6089, 1.6040, 1.5989

    ----------------------
    USDJPY :
    HIGH 98.475 LOW 97.897 BID 98.280 ASK 98.282 CHANGE 0.37% TIME 08 : 40:16

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
    TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Upwards scenario: USDJPY is approaching our next resistance level at 98.51 (R1), keeping the short-term ascending structure intact. The break here is required for the price appreciation towards to next target at 98.86 (R2) and any further rise would then be targeting to 99.21 (R3). Downwards scenario: Negative developments might be settled below the important support level at 97.76 (S1). Any price action below it would then be targeting support level at 97.46 (S2) and then final target could be exposed at 97.14 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 98.51, 98.86, 99.21
    Support Levels: 97.76, 97.46, 97.14


    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )
     
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