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Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 30 2013

Discussion in 'Major Currency Crosses' started by alayoua, Sep 30, 2013.

  1. alayoua

    alayoua New Member

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    Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 30 2013

    Equity index futures fall sharply, USA Government shutdown approaches as lawmakers fail to broker agreement

    Concerns that the budget stalemate, at the heart of the USA government, will affect economic growth caused the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to experience its first weekly drop since August. The index dropped 1.1 percent last week. The rate on 10-year Treasury notes fell three basis points to 2.62 percent. Equity index futures took a substantial hit immediately the market opened Sunday evening; the DJIA down 0.72% - with the critical level of 15,000 back on the radar. The SPX was down 0.79%. European equity index futures also took an immediate hit, with UK FTSE down 0.77% and the MIB down 1.25%. The dollar and the euro fell sharply in early trade on Sunday evening, the greenback falling by 0.5% versus yen. Being perceived as a safe haven yen also rose versus the euro, loonie, Aussie, sterling and the Swiss franc amongst the major peers. In a USA government shutdown, essential operations with dedicated funding would continue. A shutdown could reduce fourth-quarter economic growth by as much as 1.4 percentage points according to economists. The biggest effect would come from the output lost from temporarily laid off workers.
    http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

    FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
    2013-09-30 09:00 GMT | EMU Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) (Sep)
    2013-09-30 12:30 GMT | CA Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (Jul)
    2013-09-30 13:45 GMT | US Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (Sep)
    2013-09-30 23:30 GMT | JP Unemployment Rate (Aug)

    FOREX NEWS :
    2013-09-30 05:30 GMT | AUD/USD off the session lows; 0.9282 is last hope for bulls
    2013-09-30 04:48 GMT | USD/CHF under pressure on US government close “jitters”
    2013-09-30 03:52 GMT | USD/JPY starting to weaken after bouncing around after Japanese data
    2013-09-30 03:06 GMT | NZD/USD down, but holding its own unlike many other “risk currencies”

    ------------------
    EURUSD :
    HIGH 1.35067 LOW 1.34774 BID 1.34980 ASK 1.34983 CHANGE -0.18% TIME 08:38:12

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
    TREND CONDITION : Sideway
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

    MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

    Upwards scenario: Price comfortably ranging on the hourly chart, however we see potential to overcome our next resistive barrier at 1.3512 (R1) later on today. Any prolonged movement above it would suggest next intraday targets at 1.3530 (R2) and 1.3550 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside our attention is shifted to the immediate support level at 1.3471 (S1). Break here is required to enable bearish forces and expose our intraday targets at 1.3454 (S2) and 1.3437 (S3)

    Resistance Levels: 1.3512, 1.3530, 1.3550
    Support Levels: 1.3471, 1.3454, 1.3437

    ------------------
    GBPUSD :
    HIGH 1.61812 LOW 1.61387 BID 1.61646 ASK 1.61654 CHANGE 0.17% TIME 08:38:12

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
    TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

    Upwards scenario: Measures of resistance might be activating when the pair approaches 1.6180 (R1). Break here would suggest next interim target at 1.6210 (R2) and If the pair keeps its momentum we would expect an exposure of 1.6238 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of market weakening is seen below the support level at 1.6139 (S1). Loss here is required to enable our supportive barrier at 1.6111 (S2) en route towards to final target for today at 1.6083 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 1.6180, 1.6210, 1.6238
    Support Levels: 1.6139, 1.6111, 1.6083

    ------------------------
    USDJPY :
    HIGH 98.054 LOW 97.674 BID 97.910 ASK 97.913 CHANGE -0.32% TIME 08:38:13

    [​IMG]

    OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
    TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
    TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
    IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

    Upwards scenario: Upside formation is limited now to the next resistive barrier at 98.09 (R1). Clearance here is required to provide a space for a move towards to next target at 98.29 (R2) and then final aim could be found at 98.50 (R3). Downwards scenario: Successful retest of our next support level at 97.66 (S1) might provide sufficient momentum for the price acceleration towards to interim target at 97.46 (S2) and then final aim for today could be exposed at 97.26 (S3).

    Resistance Levels: 98.09, 98.29, 98.50
    Support Levels: 97.66, 97.46, 97.26

    Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )
     
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