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Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 21/05/08

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by ForexAnalysis, May 21, 2008.

  1. ForexAnalysis

    ForexAnalysis Contributing Member

    Apr 13, 2008
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    Read the Daily Forex Trading Analysis

    Today’s US Dollar Trading

    •USD sharply lower
    •German data surprises, EURO higher
    •US PPI not so good

    Overnight Preview

    •Look for a correction lower by the majors; today’s rally overdone?

    Looking Ahead to Wednesday
    All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
    •10:30am Crude Oil Inventories 0.2M
    •1:00pm Fed Governor Warsh Speaks
    •2:00pm FOMC Meeting Minutes

    The Greenback is weaker to end the day and the sharp rise by the majors stopped at technical resistance across the board suggesting that the move was a bull-trap. All the majors look really bullish into current pricing but volumes were a bit lighter than might be expected suggesting that the pairs may have overextended themselves today. Most of the action was EURO-centered as cross-spreaders and sympathy buying kept the rate firm through stops in the 1.5600 area and above fueled the move into the high prints at 1.5681. Forex Trader’s note that the rate stopped cold and volumes dried up after the fix; possible correction to test the rally on the way. Aggressive traders can look to sell EURO in this area looking for a break into the low 1.5500 area the next 24-48 hours; IFO out tonight might surprise and help a correction get started. Cable rallied through stops as well for a high print at 1.9721 before falling back under the 1.9670 area and again traders note volumes dropped off dramatically after the fix. Subscribers should liquidate their long GBP positions and look to buy a pullback as the target/objective was basically reached as the volume dropped off. USD/JPY continued to weaken and low prints during mid-day at 103.44 failed to trigger large stops rumored to be resting in the 103.50 area; if nobody is home at these prices then a short-term bounce is very likely and a rally should fail quickly on any test of the 104.20 area or so. In my view, the USD had a hard and fast break that maybe went a little too far too fast. It’s OK to take advantage of the aggressive slide but note that the rotation the other way likely to be short and sweet also. Look for German IFO tonight to create a bit of volatility and for the most part the big news for the week is out. The rest of the week will likely be technical trading and volumes are likely to remain subdued. After a market makes a big move unexpectedly most traders look to take a step back. The US Memorial day weekend is this week and the prospect of a three-day weekend in the largest FX market will also likely keep traders sidelined. I would look for the week to start winding down Wednesday night into Thursday trade; lots of people will want to get a head-start on the weekend.

    GBP/USD Daily

    Resistance 3: 1.9780
    Resistance 2: 1.9750
    Resistance 1: 1.9720
    Latest New York: 1.9677
    Support 1: 1.9620/30
    Support 2: 1.9580
    Support 3: 1.9550

    Rate rallies in sympathy with EURO and clears close-in stops; aggressive active buying noted some desks report. High prints at the 1.9720 area is near-term resistance and a bout of long-liquidation is expected. OK to cover longs. Rate likely to have a fall-back should EURO drift lower now that the major news is out for the week. Close above the 1.9580 area favors additional strength but I still think there is potential selling pressure coming. Rate tested the 1.9700 handle after PPI this morning and volumes after the fix into the highs were lower.Cross-spreading for Yen, Swissy and EURO evident for the past week. Likely sovereign demand on the crosses as well again this week.

    Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)

    4:30am GBP MPC Meeting Minutes 7-2 cut
    4:30am GBP M4 Money Supply m/m 0.6%
    4:30am GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing 1.8B

    USD/JPY Daily

    Resistance 3: 104.80
    Resistance 2: 104.50
    Resistance 1: 104.10/20
    Latest New York: 103.59
    Support 1: 103.40/50
    Support 2: 103.20/30
    Support 3: 102.80

    Rate falls back after a weak rally in Asia; traders note that stops are building in size under the 103.50 area with bids layered below to 103.00 area. Stops said to be large enough to drive the rate through bids for a test of the 102.80 area. Failure to score the 105.00 handle very significant in my view. Upside will continue to be labored now in my view but be nimble on shorts; we need a solid close under the 103.80 area next. If PPI disappoints today, that may be in the works for this afternoon. Conviction of the sellers being challenged but I think the weak hands are the longs as the volumes are increasing on the breaks and lighter on the rallies. Traders note that the market continues to trade technically and expect stops to be run in both directions near-term; Day traders continue to get a lot of opportunity as the rate will likely cover a lot of the same ground twice on the hourly time frame. Resistance at 104.80 area remains significant now and rallies should be sold.

    Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)

    7:50pm JPY All Industries Activity Index m/m -0.2%
    7:50pm JPY Trade Balance 0.79T

    In association with Forex Trading Edge

    Analysis by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky

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