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Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 25/03/2010

Discussion in 'Forex Daily News & Outlook' started by forexpros2, Mar 25, 2010.

  1. forexpros2

    forexpros2 Member

    Oct 20, 2009
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    ForexPros Daily Analysis March 25, 2010

    Free webinar on ForexPros - Inter-Market Analysis and 2010 Forecast for the
    Dollar and Commodities

    Expert: Nour Eldeen M. Al-Hammouri
    When: Today, Mar 25, 2010, 15:00 GMT

    In this webinar Nour Eldeen M. Al-Hammouri will discuss the Inter-Market
    Analysis and markets relationships. He will relate to the issue of how to
    use Moving Averages to track the best support and resistance area, which
    will be a signal for the Buy areas or Sell areas.

    Click here to join free.


    Fundamental Analysis: GDP (QoQ)

    Traders of the US anticipate the publication of the GDP measurement. The
    Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of economic activity
    and is a key indicator for the economy's health.
    The Annualized (quarterly change x4) percent changes in GDP shows the growth
    rate of the economy as a whole.
    Consumption is by far the largest component in the GDP of the US and has the
    most affect on it.
    The figures can be quite volatile from quarter to quarter. A higher than
    expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a
    lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
    Analysts predict a future reading of 5.90%.


    Euro Dollar

    The Euro broke the support specified in yesterday's report 1.3390 , and
    dropped reaching the first suggested target 1.3326 successfully, before
    dipping below 1.33 for the first time since May 7th of last year. This
    collapse is completely expected, not only that, but we believe what we have
    seen yet is just part one of a strong and massive medium term drop which has
    already started! We will not be a bit surprised when we see the Euro below
    1.30 in the near future, on the contrary, we look forward with eager to
    that. As for the short term, we may see a correction that retests the
    support area 1.3434-1.3462 before the weekend, and we may not! This depends
    on breaking the short term support or resistance. We see resistance at
    1.3459, and the EURUSD will stay harmed, trading under a very negative
    technical outlook as long as we are below this resistance. But if a surprise
    takes us above this level, we will correct the last wave down from 1.38.
    Ideal targets for such a correction are 1.3550 & 1.3612. As for the support
    it is at 1.3303 and breaking it would indicate a continuation of the drop.
    We do expect large targets to be met before the weekend, such as 1.3190 &

    * 1.3303: important intraday support.
    * 1.3190: Apr 30th low.
    * 1.3088: Apr 10th low.

    * 1.3459: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
    * 1.3550: Fibonacci 50% for the drop from 1.3816.
    * 1.3612: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from 1.3816.



    After days & days of putting it under our surveillance, and pouring all our
    attention on it, the "magnetic" resistance 90.78 was broken and we have seen
    what follows the break of such important levels. The Dollar jumped strongly
    breaking the specified resistance in yesterday's report 90.78 & successfully
    reaching both suggested targets 91.60 & 92.31, stopping only 7 pips above
    the second target! With this break, the Dollar has released itself from
    pressure, and the direction of the Dollar in this pair could now agree with
    its direction against the European currencies, and we could end up seeing a
    board Dollar rally against all majors. After this rocketing rise, a
    correction is normally expected, and here, the previous critical resistance
    90.78 has turned to a support that the price should hold above. Short term
    support is at 91.40 & breaking it would indicate a drop to 90.78 to retest
    it. If price holds above it, or at least close to it, there will be no harm.
    But it we go back below this level, the positive technical outlook will get
    hit hard, and price will drop towards 89.99. As for the resistance it is at
    92.09 & if broken, the current rise will continue, and the Dollar will rise
    to a new set of targets which includes: 93.20 & 93.75.

    * 91.40: short term 38.2% Fibonacci support.
    * 90.78: the previous important resistance, and Fibonacci 61.8%.
    * 89.99: the rising trend line from 89.61 on the hourly chart.

    * 92.09: the falling trend line from yesterday's top.
    * 93.20: Jan 4th high.
    * 93.75: Jan 8th high.


    Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.



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