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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 09/12/2009

Discussion in 'Forex Daily News & Outlook' started by forexpros2, Dec 9, 2009.

  1. forexpros2

    forexpros2 Member

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    Forexpros Daily Analysis Dec 9, 2009

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    Fundamental Analysis: Trade Balance Index

    The US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the Trade Balance index report Tomorrow (Dec 10), which measures the difference in worth between exported and imported goods (exports minus imports).
    This is the largest component of the US's balance of payments.
    Export data gives a reflection on the US growth. Imports provide an indication of domestic demand. Because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports, it may have sizable affect on the USD.
    Analysts expect tomorrow's Index to remain stable since last month, indicating a defacit of 36.50 Billions Dollars.

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    Euro Dollar

    The Euro slightly surpassed the resistance 1.4844 before completely surrendering to the downtrend. It dropped and successfully reached the first target 1.4724, and came somehow close to the second target 1.4649 (the low until this very moment is 1.4667). In spite of this big drop, we still have not made it yet to Fibonacci 38.2% for the long term (for the rise from 1.3747) at 1.4610. Short-term support is at 1.4649, and breaking it would mean we will be targeting the above mentioned Fibonacci level first at 1.4610, and then the support area 1.4510/1.4518 that includes several daily bottoms. Short-term resistance is at the Asian session high 1.4734, breaking it would mean that the Euro will have a chance to catch a breath after this big drop. Breaking this resistance will target at least 1.4847, and may be 1.4903 as well.

    Support:
    • 1.4649: Oct 7th low.
    • 1.4610: Fibonacci 38.2% for the long-term (for the rise from 1.374).
    • 1.4510: previous support area that includes several daily lows.

    Resistance:
    • 1.4734: Asian session high.
    • 1.4847: Fibonacci 38.2% for the drop from 1.5139
    • 1.4903: Fibonacci 50% for the drop from 1.5139

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    USD/JPY

    Dollar-Yen broke the rising trendline from 85.07 at 88.75 and successfully reached the first target 88.33. Breaking this line indicates there is a continuation of the downside pressures, that emerged after Friday’s top, and if it continues, we will break today’s support which is yesterday’s low 88.16, and would target Fibonacci 50% at 87.78 first, and may be the most important support for the time being : Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole up-move from 84.81 at 87.08. But as we can see from the attached chart, the drop stopped at the moving average SMA100, which could provide a chance for a bounce back up, in what could be (at least) a correction for the drop from Friday’s top. In this case the price will break intraday resistance at 88.48, and would ideally target the area that is bordered by Fibonacci 38.2% for the short-term at 89.15 & Fibonacci 61.8% at 89.76.

    Support:
    • 88.16: yesterday’s low.
    • 87.78: Fibonacci 50% for the whole move from 84.81 to 90.75.
    • 87.08: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 84.81 to 90.75.

    Resistance:
    • 88.48: intraday resistance.
    • 89.15: Fibonacci 38.2% for short-term.
    • 89.76: Fibonacci 38.2% for short-term.

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    Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros. For a comprehensive directory of Forex brokers see Forexpros.

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    Disclaimer
    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
     
    #1 forexpros2, Dec 9, 2009
    Last edited: Dec 9, 2009
  2. Rider

    Rider New Member

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    Once their files are complete, borrowers may be denied long-term help if they don't meet the program's criteria.

    At JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500), for instance, some 29% of borrowers offered trial plans did not make the required payments and are not eligible for permanent modifications, the bank reported. Another 51% have made the three required payments but have not provided all the needed paperwork.

    The bank has launched a program to call borrowers 36 times, reach out by mail 15 times and make at least two home visits to retrieve the required forms.

    About 20% have met all the criteria and the majority are expected to be put in long-term modifications soon, the bank said.

    So far, some 4,302 borrowers at Chase have received permanent modifications, while another 16,131 have been approved for long-term help. The servicer has offered trial modifications to 199,033 borrowers.

    "We continue to work very hard to convert customers from a trial modification to a permanent modification that lowers their monthly payment, but it has been a struggle," said Charlie Scharf, head of retail financial services at Chase.
     
  3. Rider

    Rider New Member

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    The FDIC said customers can access their money over the weekend by writing checks or using ATMs or debit cards. Checks will continue to be processed, and borrowers should make mortgage and loan payments as usual.

    Customers should continue to use their existing branch until they receive notice that the takeover has been completed, the agency said.

    An average of 11 banks have failed per month this year, and the federal agency's deposit insurance fund has slipped into the red for the first time since 1991.

    As of the end of September, the fund was $8.2 billion in the hole. But that figure includes $21.7 billion the agency has earmarked for future bank failures.

    The failure of First Republic will cost the FDIC an estimated $122.6 million.

    The fund is expected to move back into the black by 2012 as banks repay their insurance premiums over the next three years, which the FDIC says could raise $45 billion.

    This year's tally of bank failures is the highest number since 1992, when 181 banks failed. But the total is far from 1989's record high of 534 closures which took place during the savings and loan crisis, when the insurance fund also carried a negative balance.
     
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