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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 17/12/2009

Discussion in 'Forex Daily News & Outlook' started by forexpros2, Dec 17, 2009.

  1. forexpros2

    forexpros2 Member

    Oct 20, 2009
    Likes Received:
    Forexpros Daily Analysis Dec 17, 2009

    Free webinar on Forexpros - Identifying Market Turning Points With an Objective Set of Rules

    Expert: Sam Seiden
    When: Mon, Dec 21, 2009, 12:00 EST

    The movement of price in the Forex markets is a function of an ongoing supply and demand equation. Opportunity exists when this simple and straight forward equation is out of balance. During this session, we will cover the basic yet important rules for identifying market turning points based on a rule strategy that quantifies real supply and demand in the Forex markets.
    This webinar is the first of a three part series brought to you by Online Trading Academy and Forexpros.

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    Fundamental Analysis: German Ifo Business Climate Index

    The German Information and Foschung (Ifo) Business Climate Index determines the business sentiment and conditions in the Euro-zone.
    The reading is concluded from survey of about 7,000 businesses.
    A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
    Analysts forecast a reading of 93.90, down from 94.50.


    Euro Dollar

    The Euro broke both the support & resistance of yeserday’s report, before choosing the downward road reaching both suggested targets 1.4445 & 1.4405. With that, the long-term Fibonacci 50% support (1.4445) was broken, and we expect to see Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.4280, and we might see it before the weekend. Short-term resistance is at 1.4452, and breaking it is the key to reach and test the most important resistance for short-term 1.4504. The importance of this resistance comes from being Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, and staying below it, would indicate that the rising move from yesterday’s low is just a short-term correction, while breaking it would means it is bigger than that, and would target 1.4574 as a first stop on the road to higher targets. Short-term support is at 1.4405 and breaking it would indicate a continuation of the drop to 1.4354 first, and then the important 1.4280.

    • 1.4405: the rising trend line from yesterday’s low on intraday charts.
    • 1.4354: Aug 27th low.
    • 1.4445: Fibonacci 61.8% for the long-term (the rise from 1.3737 to 1.5143).

    • 1.4452: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short-term.
    • 1.4504: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, and the most important resistance.
    • 1.4574: intraday resistance from yesterday.



    Dollar-Yen broke the resistance 89.72 and reached the first target 90.08 successfully. This continuation in rising was a result of breaking the falling trend line from 90.75. With this break, the Dollar has gained a technical advantage that should give it the strength to go on. But to keep this advantage, the price should hold above the broken trend line which is currently at 89.13. And before that, we have the short-term support at 89.87, breaking it is the key to a retest of the broken line, targeting 89.13, and if this one is broken we could see a sharp drop to the important Fibonacci support 87.87. On theother hand, the resistance 90.40 is resistance of the day, and breaking it will indicate ability to continue going up, targeting the well known 90.90 first, and then November 4th top 91.31.

    • 89.87: short-term support.
    • 89.13: the retest level of the broken trend line.
    • 87.78: Fibonacci 50% for the whole move from 84.81 to 90.75.
    • 90.40: previous well known support/resistance area.
    • 90.90: previous well known support/resistance area.
    • 91.31: Nov 4th top.


    Forex trading analysis by Munther Marji for Forexpros. See our new commodities section on Forexpros.



    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
  2. Rider

    Rider New Member

    Nov 24, 2009
    Likes Received:
    The government said 5,186,000 people filed continuing claims in the week ended Dec. 5, the most recent data available. That's 5,000 up from the preceding week's revised 5,181,000 claims.

    The 4-week moving average for ongoing claims fell by 106,750 to 5,318,250 from the previous week's revised 5,425,000.

    But the slide may signal that more filers are dropping off those rolls into extended benefits.

    Continuing claims reflect people filing each week after their initial claim until the end of their standard benefits, which usually last 26 weeks. The figures do not include those who have moved to state or federal extensions, or people whose benefits have expired.

    Congress passed legislation last month to extend federally paid benefits up to 99 weeks, depending on the state, but the law only helps those who exhaust the unemployment lifelines by the year's end.

    Lawmakers in the House passed a measure Wednesday to extend the filing deadline through the end of February. Both chambers initially introduced bills to push the deadline to apply for benefits through 2010 or beyond, but democratic leaders in the House scaled back the effort in hopes of getting the bill through the Senate more quickly.

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