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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 18/08/2010

Discussion in 'Forex Daily News & Outlook' started by forexpros2, Aug 18, 2010.

  1. forexpros2

    forexpros2 Member

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    ForexPros Daily Analysis August 18, 2010


    Free webinar on ForexPros - Trend. How to spot it and how to trade it.
    Support and resistance levels
    Expert: Stoyan Mihaylov
    When: Mon, Aug 23, 2010, 11:00 GMT

    It is a common belief, that "The trend is your friend". In order to profit
    from the trend you have to be able to spot it on the chart, recognize the
    time-frame it is derived from and to define all the important support and
    resistance levels. Walking with the trend is an easy and simple way to
    follow the market , which is the essence of the TA phenomenon.

    In this online webinar you will be able to participate actively in the
    discussion and to ask the questions you're interested in.

    The webinar will be conducted by Stoyan Mihaylov - financial analyst at
    Deltastock AD.


    Click here to join free

    ---

    Fundamental Analysis: MPC Meeting Minutes

    Initial Jobless Claims

    The Initial Jobless Claims is a seasonally adjusted measure of the number of
    people who file for unemployment benefits for the first time during the
    given week. This data is collected by the Department of Labor, and published
    as a weekly report.
    The number of jobless claims is used as a measure of the health of the job
    market, as a series of increases indicates that there are fewer people being
    hired.
    On a week-to-week basis, claims are quite volatile. Usually, a move of at
    least 35K in claims, is required to signal a meaningful change in job
    growth.
    A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the
    USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish
    for the USD. The analyst predicts the future reading of 475.00K.

    ---

    Euro Dollar

    The Euro went on with its bounce from the bottom it reached shortly after
    the weekly open 1.2733, and scored a high at 1.2914, before dropping to the
    support we specified in yesterday's report 1.2822 down to the pip. Such a
    rebound is considered very "modest" comparing to the drop it followed, which
    came very close to 600 pips! We can clearly see that we have not even
    reached the first Fibonacci level 38.2%. Technically, the most important
    event was dropping to another important trend line, which is the rising
    trend line from June 7th low (please refer to the attached chart). This line
    which was tested accurately on Monday, is at 1.2802. If this level is
    broken, we will be already on the way to test this week's low at 1.2733 as a
    first target, and if broken we will see the Euro dropping to 1.2660. On the
    other hand, resistance is at 1.2879. Only with a break here will the Euro be
    able to move forward. If we get this break, we think that the price will
    rise with the target of reaching Fibonacci levels 1.2962 & 1.3033.

    Support:
    * 1.2802: the rising trend line from Jun 7th low on the hourly chart.
    * 1.2733: this week's low so far.
    * 1.2660: Jul 6th high.

    Resistance:
    * 1.2879: short term Fibonacci 61.8% level.
    * 1.2962: Fibonacci 38.2% level for the drop from the 3-month high of
    1.3332.
    * 1.3033: Fibonacci 50% level for the drop from the 3-month high of 1.3332.

    ---

    USD/JPY

    The Dollar/Yen bored us yesterday with a very limited trading range, it did
    not break any of the levels specified in yesterday's report, therefore,
    there is only a very limited change to yesterday's technical outlook. Let's
    leave the daily & weekly charts we have been obsessed with lately, and just
    focus on the hourly chart. We can see that there is a very exciting trend
    line, dropping from June 4th top. This line is almost at 86.21: the
    resistance which the price tried to break on Friday, but left it alone
    shortly after that. Therefore, all of our attention is at the exciting trend
    lien & the importance it provides. As long as we are trading below this
    line, the downtrend will be ok, but if we break the resistance 86.21 we will
    shoot up targeting 87.00 and may be 87.70. Where if we go back to trade
    below the support 85.09, there will be nothing stopping the price from
    reaching our awaited target 83.85, and may be at a later time we will see
    82.65 as well.

    Support:
    * 85.09: yesterday's low.
    * 83.87: Fibonacci extension level 138.2% for the falling wave from 86.86,
    compared to the wave which started at 88.10.
    * 82.65: the trend line combining the monthly lows of Dec 08, Jan & Nov 09,
    on the weekly chart.

    Resistance:
    * 86.21: the falling trend line from June 4th top on the hourly chart, and
    Aug 10th top.
    * 87.00: Jul 7th low.
    * 87.70: June 26th top.

    ---


    Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros.

    ---

    Disclaimer:

    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex
    transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for
    all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for
    you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You
    may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and
    recommendations are subject to change at any time.
     
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