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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 21/10/2009

Discussion in 'Forex Daily News & Outlook' started by forexpros2, Oct 21, 2009.

  1. forexpros2

    forexpros2 Member

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    Forexpros Daily Analysis Oct 21, 2009


    The US Department of Labor will publish its weekly Initial Jobless Claims Report Tomorrow (22 Oct).

    The Report is a measure of the number of people who file for unemployment benefits for the first time during the given week.
    The number of jobless claims is used as a measure of the health of the job market, as a series of increases indicates that there are fewer people being hired.
    Usually, a move of at least 35K in claims is required to signal a meaningful change in job growth.
    A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.
    Analysts forecast last week’s measure of 514.00K to rise to 518.00K.

    ---

    Euro Dollar

    The Euro broke the yesterday's support 1.4964, and reached the first target of this break, and Fibonacci important support 1.4891, tested it strongly, but eventually it survived (yesterday's low 1.4881). We will adopt this support level as support of the day, because if it holds, this would mean that the short-term correction is already over, and that we are heading to areas above yesterday's high 1.4993. But, if broken, what will be expected is a correction for the move up from 1.4480, and if this is the case, targets will not be less than 1.4797, and may be 1.4737 also. Short-term resistance is 1.4950, and if broken, we will head with the Euro to the top of the rising channel on the hourly chart, which is currently at 1.5048, and may be we will reach the highest level since Aug 2008, at the resistance 1.5082. The support level at 1.4891 is the most important level for today, and is the line separating positive areas from negative.

    Support:
    • 1.4891: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
    • 1.4842-1.4849: The support area which contains the lows of Thursday & Friday.
    • 1.4797: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole move from 1.4480.

    Resistance:
    • 1.4950: short-term resistance.
    • 1.5000: psychological level.
    • 1.5048: the top of the rising channel on the hourly chart.

    ---

    USD/JPY

    The Dollar-Yen with amazing accuracy at the first support in yesterday's report (lowest price after the issuance of yesterday's report is 90.06), and then rose to 91.05, breaking 90.73 on the way, but what followed was a modest move. The most important support is the Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term at 89.77, and if broken the direction would be down to test the important support 88.68, which must hold to prevent another attempt to test 87.97 which survived 2 weeks ago an attempt for a break. As for the resistance, the most important one is 90.90, and the key to the most important stop in these areas is 91.63, which is expected to be an important test. Breaking it means that this rise will continue in the next few days, to areas above 92, where 92.52-92.58 is the first target for this break. While failure here would indicate that this is but a short-term rise.

    Support:
    • 89.77: Fibonacci 50% short-term and the bottom of the rising channel on the intraday charts.
    • 89.38: Oct 7th high.
    • 88.68: support area that supported the price twice this month.

    Resistance:
    • 90.90: short-term resistance.
    • 91.63: previous support & resistance area, the most important resistance for the short-term.
    • 91.93: Sep 2nd low.

    --

    Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji

    ---

    Disclaimer
    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
     
  2. forexpros2

    forexpros2 Member

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    Forexpros Daily Analysis - 26/10/2009

    Forexpros Daily Analysis Oct 26, 2009


    The National Australia Bank (NAB) will publish its Quarterly Business Confidence report tomorrow (OCT 27).

    The report measures the current business conditions in Australia by analyzing the economic situation in the short term.

    The indicator is concluded from a survey of around 1000 companies.

    A rising trend indicates an increase in business investment which may lead to higher levels of output.

    Above 0 indicates improving conditions, below indicates worsening conditions.

    A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.

    The Australian Market has seen an improving trend ever since the low reading of Business Confidence this February which stood at -42.

    ---

    Euro Dollar


    We can say that the Euro is still facing trouble in the 1.5045-1.5062 area, and with closing on towards 1.5082 very slowly, we should be on the watch for a top near this level, where a relatively sizable correction is expected to begin. The most important resistance for now is 1.5082, and only breaking it would weaken the probability of a top formation in this area. The most important support is the bottom of the rising channel on the hourly charts, which meets the moving average SMA100 at 1.4992. If broken, we expect a correction to match the rise from 1.4480, which would take the price in the next few days to 1.4840 at the very least. But, if things go against our expectations, and the price rise and breaks 1.5082, that would open the way towards 1.5144 & 1.5200.

    Support:
    • 1.4992: the bottom of the rising channel on the hourly chart, and the moving average SMA100.
    • 1.4896: clear support area on the hourly chart.
    • 1.4840: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole move from 1.4480.

    Resistance:
    • 1.5082: previous daily high from 2008.
    • 1.5144: previous support area that contained more than one daily low during last year.
    • 1.5200: previous resistance area from 2008.

    ---

    USD/JPY

    Dollar-Yen reached 92 for the first time in more than a month. And after breaking 91.63, its is only logical to say that the odds favor a continuation of this slow rise, probably to our previously suggested target area 92.52-58, which could be an area for the price to reverse from, and start correcting the whole rise from 87.98. Short-term resistance is 91.94, and breaking it would mean we are heading towards the target area 92.52-58, or may be to a more exciting and attractive target, which is 92.88: Fibonacci 50% resistance for the whole down move from 97.77 to 87.98. And since the 2 targets are not far from each other, the whole area combining them (92.52-92.88) is considered one wide resistance area that we expect is able to reverse the direction on the short-term, and initiate a correction that we can not talk about its size now. The most important support is 91.47, provided by the rising trendline on the 15 minute chart. If broken, we will target 90.90 where the known previous resistance meets the SMA100. And Since the RSI is standing in the middle of the way, the odds of going in either direction look close.

    Support:
    • 91.47: the rising trendline on the intraday charts.
    • 90.90: the previous known resistance, and the moving average SMA100.
    • 89.38: Oct 19th low.

    Resistance:
    • 91.94: intraday resistance.
    • 92.52-92.58: previous well known resistance area.
    • 92.88: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from 97.77 to 87.98.

    ---

    Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji

    ---

    Disclaimer

    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
     
  3. forexpros2

    forexpros2 Member

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    Forexpros Daily Analysis - 28/10/2009

    Forexpros Daily Analysis Oct 28, 2009


    The U.S. Department of Labor will publish the weekly Initial Jobless Claims report tomorrow (Oct 29).

    The report is a measure of the number of people who file for unemployment benefits for the first time during the given week. This data is collected by the Department of Labor, and published as a weekly report.
    The number of jobless claims is used as a measure of the health of the job market, as a series of increases indicates that there are fewer people being hired.
    Usually, a move of at least 35K in claims, is required to signal a meaningful change in job growth.
    A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.
    Analysts predict last week’s measure of 531.00k to drop to 520.00k

    ---

    Euro Dollar

    In agreement with the negative technical outlook we talked about in yesterday's report, the Euro stopped at the first resistance in the report 1.4927 with great accuracy (yesterday's high 1.4926), then dropped breaking the support 1.4861, and reached the first target of that break 1.4771 with great accuracy as well (yesterday's low 1.4769). We still favor more downside movement, which is an expectation built on the negative technical outlook after breaking 1.4992, but we should not neglect the rising probability of an upward correction for the drop from 1.5061, which reached almost 300 pips so far. Short-term support is provided by the rising trendline from yesterday's low, currently at 1.4801, and breaking it would mean a continuation of the sharp drop, in order to break 1.4771, and target Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole up move from 1.4480, at 1.4702. Short-term resistance is 1.4844, and breaking it would target the area between 1.4881 & 1.4949. If the negative outlook is to persist, the later (1.4949) should hold.

    Support:
    • 1.4801: the rising trendline from yesterday's low on the intraday charts.
    • 1.4760: Oct 13th low.
    • 1.4702: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 1.4480.

    Resistance:
    • 1.4844: Monday's low.
    • 1.4927: Fibonacci 38.2% for yesterday's drop.
    • 1.4978: Fibonacci 61.8% for yesterday's drop, and the most important resistance for the time being.

    ---


    USD/JPY

    The Dollar-Yen stayed below the resistance 92.27, broke the support 91.98, and reached the first target for this break 91.26 successfully. With this down move, we are getting closer to the bottom of the rising trend channel on the hourly chart, currently at 90.76, making it support of the day. Staying above it, would give this pair a chance to correct the drop from Monday's high 92.31, creating a correction that could reach 91.84, the most important resistance for the short-term. We believe that the borders of the current area are support 90.76 and resistance 97.84, and before breaking any of them, it would be difficult to predict the next move's direction. And we believe that the direction of that move will be the direction of the break. If we break support 90.76, that would mean we broke the rising trend channel, and the trend for the short and medium terms, and that would take the price close to 90 again. On the other hand, breaking resistance 91.84 would mean that the drop from Monday's high is over, and that we are on the way to 92.52-58.

    Support:
    • 90.76: the bottom of the rising trend channel on the hourly.
    • 90.06: Oct 20th low.
    • 89.61: Oct 12th low.

    Resistance:
    • 91.54: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short-term.
    • 91.84: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, the most important resistance for now.
    • 92.52-92.58: previous well known resistance area.

    ---

    Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji

    ---

    Disclaimer:
    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.


     
  4. forexpros2

    forexpros2 Member

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    Forexpros Daily Analysis - 29/10/2009

    Forexpros Daily Analysis Oct 29, 2009

    ---

    Traders await tomorrow’s announcement (Oct 30) by the Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on the new monthly short term interest rate.

    The decision on where to set interest rates depends mostly on growth outlook and inflation. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability. High interest rates attract foreigners looking for the best "risk-free" return on their money, which can dramatically increases demand for the nation's currency.
    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the JPY, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the JPY.
    Analysts expect no new changes from the bank’s executives, with this months interests remaining stable at 0.10%.

    ---

    Euro Dollar

    In agreement with the negative technical outlook we talked about in the past two days, the Euro stopped at the first resistance in the report 1.4844 with great accuracy (highest price after the issuance of the report is 1.4840), then dropped breaking the support 1.4801, and reached the first target of that break 1.4702. And after reaching 1.4702, we should not neglect the rising probability of an upward correction for the drop from 1.5061, which reached almost 400 pips so far. Short-term support is Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rise from .4480, which is at 1.4702, and breaking it would mean that the drop coming from 1.5061 will be larger than our expectation, and the next targets will be 1.4649 and 1.4610. Short-term resistance is 1.4737, and breaking it would target the Fibonacci 38.2% at 1.4827, and may be Fibonacci 50% at 1.4872. If the negative outlook is to persist, the Euro should not break the most important resistance for the medium-term 1.4916.

    Support:
    • 1.4702: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 1.4480.
    • 1.4649: Oct 7th low.
    • 1.4610: previous support.

    Resistance:
    • 1.4737: short-term resistance.
    • 1.4827: Fibonacci 38.2% for the drop 1.5061.
    • 1.4872: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop 1.5061.

    ---

    USD/JPY

    Dollar-Yen broke 90.76 and had some drop after that, but it stopped before 90. In spite of that, the technical outlook became more negative, because we broke the rising channel that we have been monitoring lately. The most important support for the short-term is 90.16, and until this moment it managed to hold above it. If it can maintain to do so, we expect a correction for the down move from 92.31. But if it is broken, more of the drop is to be expected, first towards the important 89.61, the last important support above 89, since the next important support is 88.82. On the other hand, the most important resistance for the short-term is 91.02, which represents both Fibonacci 38.2%, and also the retest level for the broken channel. If broken, we expect to rise towards the important 91.52, and if we are in front of a correction, we should not break this level. But if a surprise happens and we break it, the price would be on the way back to 92.17.

    Support:
    • 90.16: short-term support.
    • 89.61: previous support & Oct 12th low.
    • 88.82: previous support & Oct 14th low.

    Resistance:
    • 91.02: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short-term, and the retest level for the broken channel, important resistance.
    • 91.52: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short-term, important resistance.
    • 92.17: previous well known resistance area.

    ---

    Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji

    ---

    Disclaimer:
    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
     
  5. forexpros2

    forexpros2 Member

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    Fundamental Weekly Outlook

    EU:
    • Monday: France PMI Manufacturing (Previous 55.3, Expected 55.3), Germany PMI Manufacturing (Previous 51.1, Expected 51.1), Euro-zone PMI Manufacturing (Previous 50.7, Expected 50.7).
    • Wednesday: France PMI Services (Previous 57.8, Expected 57.8), Germany PMI Services (Previous 50.9, Expected 50.9), Euro-zone PMI Services (Previous 52.3, Expected 52.3). Euro-Zone PPI MoM (Previous 0.4%, Expected -0.4%) & YoY (Previous -7.5%, Expected -7.7%).
    • Thursday: Euro-Zone Retail Sales MoM (Previous -0.2%, Expected 0.2%)
    & YoY (Previous -2.6%, Expected -2.4%). ECB Rate Decision (Previous 1.00%, Expected 1.00%) & then Trichet Speaks at ECB Monthly News Conference.
    • Friday: France Trade Balance (Previous -3.4 B, Expected -3.0 B). Germany Factory Orders MoM (Previous 1.4%, Expected 1.0%) & YoY (Previous -20.4%, Expected -13.6%).

    US:
    • Monday: ISM Manufacturing (Previous 52.6, Expected 53.0).
    • Tuesday: Factory Orders (Previous -0.8%, Expected 1.0%).
    • Wednesday: FED/FOMC Rate Decision (Previous 0.25%, Expected 0.25%).
    (Previous 0.25%, Expected 0.25%).
    • Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims (Previous 530K, Expected 520K).
    • Friday: Unemployment Rate (Previous 9.8%, Expected 9.9%), Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Previous -263K, Expected -175K). Wholesale Inventories (Previous -1.3%, Expected -1.0%).

    JP:
    • Monday: Labor Cash Earnings YoY (Previous -3.1%, Expected -2.1%)
    • Thursday: BOJ Board Meeting Minutes (text report).
    • Friday: Leading Index CI (Previous 83.2, Expected 86.2), Coincident Index CI (Previous 91.2, Expected 92.5).

    UK:
    • Monday: PMI Manufacturing (Previous 49.5, Expected 50.0).
    • Wednesday: Nationwide Consumer Confidence (Previous 71.0, Expected 73.0), PMI Services (Previous 55.3, Expected 55.5).
    •Thursday: Industrial Production MoM (Previous -2.5%, Expected 1.2%) & YoY (Previous -11.2%, Expected -10.3%). BoE Rate Decision (Previous 0.50%, Expected 0.50%).
    • Friday: PPI Input MoM (Previous -0.5%, Expected 1.5%) & YoY (Previous -6.5%, Expected -1.3%). PPI Output MoM (Previous 0.5%, Expected 0.3%) & YoY (Previous 0.4%, Expected 1.9%), PPI Core MoM (Previous 0.5%, Expected 0.2%) & YoY (Previous 1.4%, Expected 2.0%).

    AU:
    • Monday: House Price Index QoQ (Previous 4.2%, Expected 3.0%) &YoY House Price Index (Previous -1.4%, Expected 4.3%).
    • Tuesday: RBA Decision about the interest rate on the Australian Dollar (Previous 3.25%%, Expected 3.50%).
    • Wednesday: Retail Sales (Previous 0.9%, Expected 0.5%).
    • Thursday: Trade Balance (Previous -1524 M, Expected -2150 M).

    CA:
    • Thursday: Building Permits MoM (Previous 7.2%, Expected N/A). Ivey PMI (Previous 61.7%, Expected 58.0).
    • Friday: Unemployment Rate (Previous 8.4%, Expected 8.4%). Net Change in Employment (Previous 30.6K, Expected 10.0K).

    ---

    Forex trading analysis by Forexpros – Written by Munther Marji

    ---

    Disclaimer
    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
     
  6. forexpros2

    forexpros2 Member

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    Fundamental Weekly Outlook

    EU:
    • Monday: France PMI Manufacturing (Previous 55.3, Expected 55.3), Germany PMI Manufacturing (Previous 51.1, Expected 51.1), Euro-zone PMI Manufacturing (Previous 50.7, Expected 50.7).
    • Wednesday: France PMI Services (Previous 57.8, Expected 57.8), Germany PMI Services (Previous 50.9, Expected 50.9), Euro-zone PMI Services (Previous 52.3, Expected 52.3). Euro-Zone PPI MoM (Previous 0.4%, Expected -0.4%) & YoY (Previous -7.5%, Expected -7.7%).
    • Thursday: Euro-Zone Retail Sales MoM (Previous -0.2%, Expected 0.2%)
    & YoY (Previous -2.6%, Expected -2.4%). ECB Rate Decision (Previous 1.00%, Expected 1.00%) & then Trichet Speaks at ECB Monthly News Conference.
    • Friday: France Trade Balance (Previous -3.4 B, Expected -3.0 B). Germany Factory Orders MoM (Previous 1.4%, Expected 1.0%) & YoY (Previous -20.4%, Expected -13.6%).

    US:
    • Monday: ISM Manufacturing (Previous 52.6, Expected 53.0).
    • Tuesday: Factory Orders (Previous -0.8%, Expected 1.0%).
    • Wednesday: FED/FOMC Rate Decision (Previous 0.25%, Expected 0.25%).
    (Previous 0.25%, Expected 0.25%).
    • Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims (Previous 530K, Expected 520K).
    • Friday: Unemployment Rate (Previous 9.8%, Expected 9.9%), Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Previous -263K, Expected -175K). Wholesale Inventories (Previous -1.3%, Expected -1.0%).

    JP:
    • Monday: Labor Cash Earnings YoY (Previous -3.1%, Expected -2.1%)
    • Thursday: BOJ Board Meeting Minutes (text report).
    • Friday: Leading Index CI (Previous 83.2, Expected 86.2), Coincident Index CI (Previous 91.2, Expected 92.5).

    UK:
    • Monday: PMI Manufacturing (Previous 49.5, Expected 50.0).
    • Wednesday: Nationwide Consumer Confidence (Previous 71.0, Expected 73.0), PMI Services (Previous 55.3, Expected 55.5).
    •Thursday: Industrial Production MoM (Previous -2.5%, Expected 1.2%) & YoY (Previous -11.2%, Expected -10.3%). BoE Rate Decision (Previous 0.50%, Expected 0.50%).
    • Friday: PPI Input MoM (Previous -0.5%, Expected 1.5%) & YoY (Previous -6.5%, Expected -1.3%). PPI Output MoM (Previous 0.5%, Expected 0.3%) & YoY (Previous 0.4%, Expected 1.9%), PPI Core MoM (Previous 0.5%, Expected 0.2%) & YoY (Previous 1.4%, Expected 2.0%).

    AU:
    • Monday: House Price Index QoQ (Previous 4.2%, Expected 3.0%) &YoY House Price Index (Previous -1.4%, Expected 4.3%).
    • Tuesday: RBA Decision about the interest rate on the Australian Dollar (Previous 3.25%%, Expected 3.50%).
    • Wednesday: Retail Sales (Previous 0.9%, Expected 0.5%).
    • Thursday: Trade Balance (Previous -1524 M, Expected -2150 M).

    CA:
    • Thursday: Building Permits MoM (Previous 7.2%, Expected N/A). Ivey PMI (Previous 61.7%, Expected 58.0).
    • Friday: Unemployment Rate (Previous 8.4%, Expected 8.4%). Net Change in Employment (Previous 30.6K, Expected 10.0K).

    ---


    Forex trading analysis by Forexpros – Written by Munther Marji

    ---

    Disclaimer
    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
     
  7. forexpros2

    forexpros2 Member

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    Forexpros Daily Analysis - 02/11/2009

    Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov 2, 2009

    ---

    UK traders await the release of the Nationwide Consumer Confidence report tomorrow (Oct 3rd).

    The report is calculated from a survey of about 1,000 consumers, and measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. It is a leading indicator as it can predict the consumer spending, which is a major part in the total economic activity.

    A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP since it points to consumer optimism, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

    Analysts forecast an increase on last’s month’s figure of 71.00 to 72.00.

    ---

    Euro Dollar

    The Euro broke the short-term resistance 1.4737, and reached the first target suggested for this break at 1.4827 successfully. The most important question for now is this: Is the current rise a corrective or impulsive move? We believe that the limit separating those two possibilities is 1.4916, which is Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from 1.5061. And as long as the Euro stays below this resistance it is considered a corrective rise, while breaking it would announce more upside movement to come, probably to reach new highs above the last top 1.5061. The first resistance in front of us is 1.4872, and if it is broken we will head towards the important test of 1.4916, and if this one is broken we will target 1.4980 first, on the way to higher targets. Short-term support is provided by the rising trendline from Wednesday's low, currently at 1.4786, and if broken we will test 1.4702 again, and if this one is broken we will head towards 1.4649.

    Support:
    • 1.4786: the rising trendline from Wednesday's low on the intraday & hourly charts.
    • 1.4702: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 1.4480.
    • 1.4649: Oct 7th low.

    Resistance:
    • 1.4872: Fibonacci 50% for the drop 1.5061.
    • 1.4916: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop 1.5061.
    • 1.4980: Oct 26th low.

    ---

    USD/JPY

    As we have expected in Friday's report, Dollar-Yen broke the support 90.75 and reached both suggested targets 90.16 & 89.61 successfully. This drop that started on Thursday and continued into the new week, was the result of stopping near Fibonacci 61.8% resistance at 9.52, and as you know, stopping near Fibonacci resistance levels is an evidence that the trend in down. But on the other hand, the abovementioned drop cashed in 250 pips approximately, which could create a correction from here. That is why we prefer to wait for a break of short-term support 89.61 or short-term resistance 90.23 before talking about the direction of the next move from here. If we break the support 89.61 the downtrend will continue, and will target 89.07 and the important 88.64. And if we break Thursday's low 90.23, we will be heading to a test of short-term Fibonacci 61.8% at 90.68, and only if it is broken, we will expect a retest of the broken channel at 91.28, which would be an important test if it happens.

    Support:
    • 89.61: previous support & Oct 12th low.
    • 89.07: previous intraday support.
    • 88.64: Oct 9th low.

    Resistance:
    • 90.23: Oct 29th low.
    • 90.68: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, important resistance.
    • 91.28: the retest level of the broken channel.

    ---

    Forex trading analysis by Forexpros – Written by Munther Marji

    ---

    Disclaimer
    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
     
  8. forexpros2

    forexpros2 Member

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    Forexpros Daily Analysis - 03/11/2009

    Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov 3, 2009

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    The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision on short term interest rate is due out tomorrow (Nov 4).

    The decision on where to set interest rates depends mostly on growth outlook and inflation. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability. High interest rates attract foreigners looking for the best "risk-free" return on their money, which can dramatically increases demand for the nation's currency.
    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the USD.
    Analysts forecast no change, with the interest rate remaining at 0.25%.

    ---

    Euro Dollar

    In spite of the importance of the 1.4682 support that has stopped price twice exactly at the same price, we will not wait until it is broken to turn our outlook for the Euro to negative. We will set out most important support at Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term 1.4744, because it is the last important support defending 1.4682, and if 1.4744 is broken, the odds of breaking 1.4682 on a third attempt will be big. The most important support for the short-term is 1.4809, provided by the falling trendline from 1.4926, and breaking it would give the Euro some strength that could be enough to test Fibonacci 50% at 1.4872. We will await a break of either of those levels before deciding on today's direction. If we break support at 1.4744, that will mean a continuation of falling on the short-term and targeting the important bottom 1.4649 and may be 1.4610 after that. But if we break the resistance 1.4809, today's direction would be up, and the suggested targets would be 1.4872 first, and may be 1.4916.

    Support:
    • 1.4744: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
    • 1.4649: Oct 7th low.
    • 1.4610: Sep 21st low.

    Resistance:
    • 1.4980: the falling trendline from 1.4926.
    • 1.4872: Fibonacci 50% for the drop 1.5061.
    • 1.4916: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop 1.5061.

    ---

    USD/JPY

    Down to the pip, the Dollar-Yen stopped at Fibonacci resistance specified in yesterday's report 90.68 (yesterday's high is EXACTLY 90.68), and as you know, stopping near Fibonacci resistance levels is an evidence that the trend in down. That’s why we find ourselves favoring a continuation of the short-term downtrend as long as we are below 90.68. And we will await a break of short-term Fibonacci support 90.16, after the price literally "sat" on it for the past few hours. If we break this support the downtrend will continue, and will target 89.61 first, then 89.07 and may be the important 88.64. The price behavior for yesterday, and the amazingly accurate reversal at the Fibonacci resistance that we talked about (90.68),makes it the most important resistance, and only if it is broken, we will change our negative outlook for this pair. If this surprise happens, we will be heading to a test the upper limit of the short-term downtrend (the trendline drawn on the chart), which is currently at 90.95, and that would be an important test if it happens.

    Support:
    • 90.16: Fibonacci 61.8% for short-term.
    • 89.61: previous support & Oct 12th low.
    • 89.07: previous intraday support.

    Resistance:
    • 90.68: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, important resistance.
    • 90.95: the upper limit of the short-term downtrend and the trendline descending from last week tops.
    • 91.60: Oct 29th high.

    ---

    Forex trading analysis by Forexpros – Written by Munther Marji

    ---

    Disclaimer:
    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

     
    #8 forexpros2, Nov 3, 2009
    Last edited: Nov 3, 2009
  9. forexpros2

    forexpros2 Member

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    Forexpros Daily Analysis - 04/11/2009

    Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov 4, 2009


    Initial Jobless Claims to Be Published in the US Tomorrow

    The Initial Jobless Claims is a measure of the number of people who file for unemployment benefits for the first time during the given week. This data is collected by the Department of Labor, and published as a weekly report.

    The number of jobless claims is used as a measure of the health of the job market, as a series of increases indicates that there are fewer people being hired.
    On a week-to-week basis, claims are quite volatile.

    Usually, a move of at least 35K in claims, is required to signal a meaningful change in job growth.

    A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.

    Analysts forecast 520.00K, down from 530.00K.

    ---

    Euro Dollar

    The Euro broke short-term support 1.4744 and successfully reached the first suggested target 1.4649. But the point where yesterday's drop stopped, uncovered a very harmonized channel, and price has touched its lines a whole 7 times. Yesterday's low was exactly at the bottom of that channel, as the attached chart shows (hourly chart). We will monitor this channel to try and specify the direction, and we strongly believe that if this channel is broken to the downside, the medium-term price direction will be in a downtrend. The bottom of the channel is currently at 1.4649 which makes this level the most important support for the short-term. On the other hand, resistance congregate its power in one important area, where we find the falling trendline from 1.5061, the moving average SMA100, and Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term at 1.4762 (calculated for the 5 waves dropping from 1.4843 to the orthodox bottom 1.4631 and not the price bottom 1.4625), which clearly makes this area the most important of all resistance levels. A break of the 1.4649 support will put the Euro under pressure and that would push it lower to 1.4559, then the important bottom 1.4480, and later to 1.4404. While a break of the resistance 1.4762 ill give the Euro a chance to catch a break and to correct upwards towards 1.4846 and may be 1.4897.

    Support:
    • 1.4649: the bottom of the coordinated channel on the hourly chart, and the most important support for medium-term.
    • 1.4559: Fibonacci 38.2% for medium-term.
    • 1.4480: Oct 2nd low.

    Resistance:
    • 1.4762: important resistance area combining Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, the moving average SMA100, and the falling trendline from 1.5061..
    • 1.4846: Fibonacci 50% for the drop 1.5061.
    • 1.4897: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop 1.5061.

    ---

    USD/JPY

    After stopping on Monday, at Fibonacci resistance 90.68 down to the pip, Dollar-Yen stopped yesterday at the moving average SMA100, with the same kind of accuracy. And as you know, stopping near Fibonacci resistance levels (and moving averages as well) is an evidence that the trend in down. That’s why we find ourselves favoring a continuation of the short-term downtrend as long as we are below 90.68. And we will await a break of short-term Fibonacci support 90.21. If we break this support the downtrend will resume, and will target 89.61 first, then 89.07 and may be the important 88.64. The price behavior for the past two days, and the amazingly accurate reversal at the Fibonacci resistance (90.68), makes it the most important resistance, and to add to that, the upper limit of the short-term downtrend (the trendline drawn on the chart), is currently at the same level. And only if it is broken, we will change our negative outlook for this pair. If this surprise happens, we will expect price to reach 91.28 then the important resistance 91.63.

    Support:
    • 90.21: Fibonacci 61.8% for short-term.
    • 89.61: previous support & Oct 12th low.
    • 89.07: previous intraday support.

    Resistance:
    • 90.68: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, and the falling line of the downtrend, important resistance.
    • 91.28: previous intraday important top.
    • 91.63: a well known support area that contained a number of daily tops and bottoms, the last of which was Oct 29th high.

    ---

    Forex trading analysis by Forexpros – Written by Munther Marji

    ---

    Disclaimer
    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
     
  10. forexpros2

    forexpros2 Member

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    Forexpros Daily Analysis - 05/11/2009

    Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov 5, 2009

    ---

    Unemployment Rate in the US to Be Announced Tomorrow

    The Unemployment Rate is a measure of the percentage of the total labor force that is unemployed but actively seeking employment and willing to work in the US.

    A high percentage indicates weakness in the labor market. A low percentage is a positive indicator for the labor market in the US and should be taken as positive for the USD.

    Analysts forecast a 9.90% unemployment rate, up from 9.80%.

    ---

    Euro Dollar

    The Euro broke short-term resistance and reached both suggested targets 1.4846 and 1.4897 successfully. Yesterday's climb stopped 10 pips above Fibonacci level, then went back to settle below it. That is why this resistance will keep its importance. Breaking it would send the Euro above 1.50, or at least close to the dollar and a half mark. The Euro continued its shine since reaching the bottom of the hourly channel that we talked about yesterday, and is currently rising inside an upward rising channel on the intraday charts, with its top at 1.4972, a level we consider as a first target to a break of 1.4897, and after that we could see 1.5014. The bottom of the same channel is currently at 1.4839, and as long as price holds above it (at the moment its only pips above this level) the potential for more short-term upside works stays alive. On the other hand a break of the bottom of the channel indicates that the direction for the short-term has turned down, which will target 1.4769 first, and may be 1.4701 later. We remind you of the rate decision of the ECB that will be announced today, and the news conference for president Trichet that will follow, which usually moves the Euro violently.

    Support:
    • 1.4839: the bottom of the rising channel on the intraday charts.
    • 1.4769: Fibonacci 50% for the last rising move.
    • 1.4701: previous important support/resistance area.

    Resistance:
    • 1.4897: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop 1.5061.
    • 1.4972: the top of the rising channel on the intraday charts.
    • 1.5014: previous resistance.

    ---

    USD/JPY

    Dollar-Yen broke Fibonacci resistance 90.68 and reached 91.28 as we accepted, with accuracy (yesterday's high 91.30), before retreating fast. This behavior redefined the rising channel on the hourly chart to make its bottom at 90.18. And when calculating Fibonacci 61.8% resistance for the short-term (for the drop from yesterday's high), we find that it is at the resistance level of 90.90. In case of a break of either of those levels, we believe price will move in the direction of the break. If the bottom of the channel at 90.18 is broken, the price will move down and target 89.61 first, and may be 89.07 as well. While if we break Fibonacci resistance at 90.90 we expect a rise to surpass yesterday's high, targeting the important 91.63 first, and only if it is broken we can expect 92 to appear on the price screens when the price targets the obvious resistance on the hurly chart 92.17.

    Support:
    • 90.18: the bottom of the rising channel on the hourly chart.
    • 89.61: previous support & Oct 12th low.
    • 89.07: previous intraday support.

    Resistance:
    • 90.90: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
    • 91.63: a well known support area that contained a number of daily tops and bottoms, the last of which was Oct 29th high.
    • 92.17: obvious resistance on the hourly chart.

    ---

    Forex trading analysis by Forexpros – Written by Munther Marji

    ---

    Disclaimer:
    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

     
  11. forexpros2

    forexpros2 Member

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    Forexpros Daily Analysis - 09/11/2009

    Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov 9, 2009

    Free Webinar Tomorrow on Forexpors.com: Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process
    Tue, Nov 10, 2009, 11:00 EST/16:00GMT

    Dan Cook, Senior Market Analyst at IG Markets will shed light on the inner workings of the international banking system and its impact on currency trading.

    The webinar will provide a breakdown of the Central Banks and the Interbank System, highlighting the roles of each of the major players and how their policy decisions impact currency markets. Additionally, Cook will review major market indicators and identify which data releases most critically impact currency markets, enabling traders to get a better sense of which economic announcements warrant the most attention.


    Click Here To Join

    --------------------

    In The News:

    Traders await tomorrows release of the Economic Sentiment report by The German Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW).
    The report determines the sentiment of German institutional investors over the past month.

    The ZEW report, which is concluded from survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts, is considered a leading indicator of business conditions.

    A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.

    Analysts expect tomorrow's report to indicate a slight drop to 55.00 from lasts month's measure of 56.00

    --------------------

    Euro/Dollar

    Finally, the Euro broke short-term Fibonacci 61.8% resistance level at 1.4897 and reached the previous known resistance 1.4942 which is October 22nd low. Breaking it would send the Euro above 1.50, since we see the first important resistance above it is at 1.5014. Then there is nothing separating the Euro from this year's high 1.5061, and may be reach the important resistance 1.5082. The most important support for the next few hours will be the rising trendline from November 3rd bottoms, which is 1.4880. In case it is broken, the Euro will face a correction on the short-term horizon that will target Fibonacci 38.2% for the short-term at 1.4821, at least, and could reach 61.8% at 1.4746. In this case, the latter will be the most important support for the short-term because staying above means this drop is only a correction, while breaking it means it is more than a correction.

    Support:
    • 1.4880: The bottom of the rising channel from Nov 3rd lows.
    • 1.4821: Fibonacci 38.2% for the last rising move.
    • 1.4746: Fibonacci 61.8% for the last rising move.

    Resistance:
    • 1.4942: Oct 22nd low.
    • 1.5014: previous resistance.
    • 1.5082: previous resistance.

    ----------------

    GBP/USD

    The Pound broke the resistance 1.6636, and reached the first target 1.6690 successfully, and came close to the second 1.6739 this morning (the high until the moment is 1.6739). This resistance, that represents September 11th high, will be the most important for today. If price fail to break it, it will be heading towards a test of the short-term support at 1.6661, and if this support is broken, we believe the price will be in a correction for the whole rise from 1.6259. Such a correction will target Fibonacci 38.2% at 1.6552 (at least), and could reach Fibonacci 50% at 1.6496. on the other hand, if the price manage to break 1.6739, this rise will continue, and reach areas above 1.68, where there is the important resistance 1.6830 that we believe to be the minimum target for breaking 1.6739. And may be later, we will see a test of the important resistance from August 1.6910. All eyes on 1.6739.

    Support:
    • 1.6661: short-term resistance.
    • 1.6552: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short-term.
    • 1.6496: Fibonacci 50% for the short-term.

    Resistance:
    • 1.6739: Sep 11th high.
    • 1.6830: Aug 7th high.
    • 1.6910: a previous resistance from August.

    ----------------

    USD/JPY

    Dollar-Yen broke the support 90.41 and reached our first target suggested for this break at 89.61 with an amazing accuracy (Friday's low was 89.60). And with the two-time stop at the descending trendline on Friday, and at Fibonacci 50% resistance during the Asian session, the borders of the downtrend is getting clearer and clearer. The falling trendline is now at 90.55, and short-term Fibonacci 61.8% resistance is at 90.37, making this area the most important for the short-term. Staying below it means that bears are in control. More confidence for the downtrend will be gained once we break 90.05, which will target 89.40 then the important bottom 88.82. If a surprise happens, and we break 90.37, we will target 90.90 first, then 91.30.

    Support:
    • 90.05: short-term support.
    • 89.40: previous support.
    • 88.82: Oct 14th low, and an important low for determining the medium-term trend.

    Resistance:
    • 90.37: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
    • 90.90: a well known previous support/resistance.
    • 91.30: Nov 4th high.


    Forex Trading Analysis by Forexpros.com

    Disclaimer:
    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
     
  12. forexpros2

    forexpros2 Member

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    Forexpros.com Fundamental Weekly Outlook Nov 9

    EU:

    • Monday: Germany Trade Balance (Previous 8.1B, Expected 11.3B), Germany Current Account (Previous 4.6B, Expected 9.3B), Imports (Previous 1.1%, Expected 0.9%)., Exports (Previous -1.8%, Expected 2.5%). France Bank of France Business Sentiment (Previous 92, Expected 93). Euro-zone Sentix Investor Confidence (Previous -12.6, Expected -12.0). Germany Industrial Production MoM (Previous 1.7%, Expected 1.0%) & YoY (Previous -16.8%, Expected -14.4%).
    • Tuesday: Germany Consumer Price Index CPI MoM (Previous 0.1%, Expected 0.1%) & YoY (Previous 0.0%, Expected 0.0%). France Industrial Production MoM (Previous 1.8%, Expected 0.5%) & YoY (Previous -10.8%, Expected -9.2%). Germany ZEW Survey Economic Sentiment (Previous 56, Expected 55), Germany Zew Survey Current Situation (Previous -72.2, Expected -70.0). Euro-Zone ZEW Survey Economic Sentiment (Previous 56.9, Expected 58.0).
    • Thursday: Euro-Zone Industrial Production MoM (Previous 0.9%, Expected 0.5%) & YoY (Previous -15.4%, Expected -14.1%).
    • Friday: Germany GDP QoQ (Previous 0.3%, Expected 0.8%) & YoY (Previous -5.9%, Expected -4.8%). France GDP QoQ (Previous 0.3%, Expected 0.6%) & YoY (Previous -2.8%, Expected -1.9%). Euro-Zone GDP QoQ (Previous 0.2%, Expected 0.5%) & YoY (Previous -4.8%, Expected -3.9%).

    US:

    • Tuesday: IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (Previous 48.7, Expected N/A). ABC Consumer Confidence (Previous 49.0, Expected N/A).
    • Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims (Previous 512K, Expected 510K). Monthly Budget Statement (Previous -155.5B, Expected -150.0B).

    • Friday: Trade Balance (Previous -30.7B, Expected -31.6B), Import Price Index MoM (Previous 0.1%, Expected 1.0%) & YoY (Previous -12.0%, Expected -5.6%). University of Michigan Consumer Confidence (Previous 70.6, Expected 71.0)

    JP:

    • Tuesday: Trade Balance (Previous 303.7B, Expected 630.0B), Current Account (Previous 1171.2B, Expected 1510.0B). Bank Lending (Previous 1.6%, Expected 1.5%), Banks Lending Banks (Previous 1.7%, Expected N/A). Eco Watchers Survey: Current (Previous 43.1, Expected N/A), Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (Previous 44.5, Expected N/A). Machine Tool Orders YoY (Previous -62.1%, Expected N/A).
    • Wednesday: Machine Orders MoM (Previous 0.5%, Expected 4.1%) &YoY (Previous -26.5%, Expected -26.3%).
    • Thursday: Domestic CGPI MoM (Previous 0.1%, Expected -0.1%) & YoY (Previous -7.9%, Expected -6.0%).
    • Friday: Industrial Production MoM (Previous 1.4%, Expected N/A) & YoY (Previous -18.9%, Expected N/A). Consumer Confidence (Previous 40.7, Expected 40.5).

    UK:

    • Tuesday: Trade Balance (Previous 2.318B, Expected 2.000B). DCLG UK House Prices YoY (Previous -5.6%, Expected -4.9%).
    • Wednesday: Jobless Claims Change (Previous 20.8K, Expected 20.0K). Average Earnings (Previous 1.9%, Expected 1.8%), Average Earnings Including Bonuses (Previous 1.6%, Expected 1.4%). ILO Unemployment Rate (Previous 7.9%, Expected 8.0%). Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report (Text Report).

    AU:

    • Monday: Home Loans (Previous -0.6%, Expected 3.0%), Investment Lending (Previous 7.6%, Expected N/A).
    • Wednesday: Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (Previous 121.4, Expected N/A).
    • Thursday: Employment Change (Previous 40.6K, Expected -10.0K), Unemployment Rate (Previous 5.7%, Expected 5.8%).

    CA:

    • Thursday: New Housing Price Index MoM (Previous 0.1%, Expected 0.2%).
    • Friday: International Merchandise Trade (Previous -2.0B, Expected N/A). New Motor Vehicle Sales (Previous -0.3%, Expected 0.0%).

    For more Fundamental News, visit the Forexpros
    Economic Calendar
     
  13. forexpros2

    forexpros2 Member

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    Forexpros Daily Analysis - 10/11/2009

    Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov 10, 2009


    Free webinar today - Mapping out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Part I

    Expert: Dan Cook
    When: Tue, Nov 10, 2009, 11:00 EST

    As the first Webinar of a two part series, Dan Cook, Senior Market Analyst at IG Markets will shed light on the inner workings of the international banking system and its impact on currency trading.
    The webinar will provide a breakdown of the Central Banks and the Interbank System, highlighting the roles of each of the major players and how their policy decisions impact currency markets. Additionally, Cook will review major market indicators and identify which data releases most critically impact currency markets, enabling traders to get a better sense of which economic announcements warrant the most attention.


    Click here to join the webinar.

    ---

    Traders await the release of the Bank of England's (BOE) Quarterly Inflation Report tomorrow (NOV 10th).

    The report sets out a detailed economic analysis and inflation projection on which the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee bases its interest rate decisions. The Monetary Policy Committee is also expected to present an assessment of the prospects for UK inflation over the next two years.

    ---

    Euro Dollar - Rising Trendline

    The Euro broke the resistance specified in yesterday's report 1.4942 and reached the first target suggest for his break 1.5014 with good accuracy (yesterday's high was 1.5018). Yesterday's target will be today's resistance, and if broken we expect this rise to go on, reaching new highs that we have not seen this year, first of which is 1.5082, then 1.5144. The most important support for the next few hours will be the rising trendline from November 3rd bottoms, which is at 1.4925 currently. In case it is broken, the Euro will face a correction on the short-term horizon that will target Fibonacci 38.2% for the short-term at 1.4821, at least, and could reach 61.8% at 1.4746. In this case, the latter will be the most important support for the short-term because staying above means this drop is only a correction, while breaking it means it is more than a correction.

    Support:
    • 1.4925: The bottom of the rising channel from Nov 3rd lows.
    • 1.4821: Fibonacci 38.2% for the last rising move.
    • 1.4746: Fibonacci 61.8% for the last rising move.

    Resistance:
    • 1.5014: previous resistance from 2008.
    • 1.5082: previous resistan4ce from 2008.
    • 1.5144: previous support from 2008.

    ---

    USD/JPY - Falling Trendline

    As we said yesterday, the two-time stop at the descending trendline on Friday, and at Fibonacci 50% resistance at the beginning of the week, the borders of the downtrend is getting clearer and clearer. The falling trendline is now at short-term Fibonacci 61.8% resistance is at 90.37, meeting them in the same area is the moving average SMA100, making this area the most important for the short-term. Staying below it means that bears are in control. More confidence for the downtrend will be gained once we break 89.79, the support provided by the rising trendline from this weeks low. Such a break will target 89.40 then the important bottom 88.82. If a surprise happens, and we break 90.37, we will target 90.90 first, then 91.30.

    Support:
    • 89.79: the rising trendline from this weeks low.
    • 89.40: previous support.
    • 88.82: Oct 14th low, and an important low for determining the medium-term trend.

    Resistance:
    • 90.37: a resistance area that includes Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, a falling trendline, and the moving average SMA100.
    • 90.90: a well known previous support/resistance.
    • 91.30: Nov 4th high.

    ---


    Forex trading analysis by Forexpros – Written by Munther Marji

    ---

    Disclaimer
    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
     
  14. forexpros2

    forexpros2 Member

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    Forexpros Daily Analysis - 11/11/2009

    Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov 11, 2009


    Free webinar - An insider's guide to Forex

    Expert: Richard Regan
    When: Tue, Nov 17, 2009, 17:00 EST

    Watch an in depth presentation on the inner workings of the global FOREX market. Richard explains what traps to avoid and how to position yourself to take advantage of the moves in currencies.


    Click here to join the webinar.

    ---

    The US Department of Labor will release the weekly Initial Jobless Claims report tomorrow (NOV 12).

    The report serves as a measure of the number of people who file for unemployment benefits for the first time during the given week, and gives an indication to the health of the job market, as increases indicates that there are fewer people being hired.

    While this measure tends to be volatile, analysts predict no change since last week’s measure of 512.00k.

    ---

    Euro Dollar

    In the past 24 hours, the Euro have not broken the support 1.4925 nor the resistance 1.5014, that the price stopped at again with accuracy (yesterday's high is exactly Monday's high at 1.5018). And now, it looks like there is an attempt to break the rising trendline from November 3rd bottoms, which is currently at 1.4975. If the Dollar manages to drag the Euro to below this line, the rising trend from last weeks high 1.4625 will be over. And that suggests there will be a correction matching the size of this trend that will force the Euro to areas below 1.49 where we find three attractive targets: Fibonacci 38.2 for the above mentioned uptrend at 1.4868, and Fibonacci 50% at 1.4821, and before them the resistance that stopped the Euro several times last week at 1.4897. the most important resistance is defiantly 1.5014, and only breaking it will improve the short-term technical outlook for the Euro, since such a break will lead the price up to areas not seen this year, first of which 1.5082 then 1.5144.

    Support:
    • 1.4975: The bottom of the rising channel from Nov 3rd lows.
    • 1.4897: the resistance that stopped the price several times last week.
    • 1.4821: Fibonacci 50% for the last rising move.

    Resistance:
    • 1.5014: previous resistance from 2008.
    • 1.5082: previous resistan4ce from 2008.
    • 1.5144: previous support from 2008.

    ---

    USD/JPY

    Dollar-Yen broke the support 89.79 and reached the first target suggested for that break 89.40 successfully. The break of 89.79, the support that was provided to us by the rising trendline from last week's low, clearly means that the short-term trend is a down trend. However, the correction of yesterday's drop has already started, and is getting closer and closer to the broken trendline at 89.82 as this report is prepared. But the most important resistance is 90.23, where the falling trendline from October 27th top awaits. The bears will be in control as long as price is below this line that provides today's most important resistance. And if this happens, we expect the price to fall and test Fibonacci 61.8% support for the micro-term at 89.53, and may be a break as well, that will lead to the important bottom 88.82. If the opposite of what we expect happens, and we break the resistance 90.23, the price will be on its way to 90.90 first, and may be 91.31 later.

    Support:
    • 89.53: Fibhonaci 61.8% for the micro-term.
    • 88.82: Oct 14th low, and an important low for determining the medium-term trend.
    • 88.33: previous support.

    Resistance:
    • 90.23: the falling trendline from Oct 27th high.
    • 90.90: a well known previous support/resistance.
    • 91.31: Nov 4th high.


    ---

    Forex trading analysis by Forexpros – Written by Munther Marji

    ---

    Disclaimer:
    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

     
  15. forexpros2

    forexpros2 Member

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    Forexpros Daily Analysis - 12/11/2009

    Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov 12, 2009


    Free webinar - An insider's guide to Forex

    Expert: Richard Regan
    When: Tue, Nov 17, 2009, 17:00 EST

    Watch an in depth presentation on the inner workings of the global FOREX market. Richard explains what traps to avoid and how to position yourself to take advantage of the moves in currencies.


    Click here to join the webinar.

    ---

    The U.S Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish the monthly Trade Balance index tomorrow (Nov 13).

    The Index measures the difference in worth between exported and imported goods (exports minus imports), which make up the largest component of a country's balance of payments.

    Export data gives reflection on the US growth, while imports provide an indication of domestic demand.

    The index serves as a powerful indicator for the streangth of the USD, because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports.

    Analysts forecast tomorrow's index to stand at -32.00B, a drop from lasts month's reading of -30.70B.


    More
    fundamental analysis at Forexpros.

    ---

    Euro Dollar

    The Euro fluctuated in a tight range, breaking both the support & resistance specified in yesterday's report, without reaching the target in either cases, and without any large moves to follow the breaks. Short-term support is still at 1.4975 where there is the moving average SMA100, and the previous support. If broken, the Euro will probably fall today in a correction for the last move up from 1.4625, targeting 1.4886 & 1.4836 and may be the most important support for medium-term currently at 1.4786. In this case, the later will become a crucial support, for setting the direction for the next few days, because breaking it would indicate that the drop from 1.5047 is not just a correction. Such a break would harm the technical outlook not just for the short-term but for the medium-term as well. The most important resistance is 1.5018, and breaking it would give the Euro a push to areas above yesterdays high, and we could finally see 1.51.

    Support:
    • 1.4975: the moving average SMA100 and a previous support.
    • 1.4886: Fibonacci 38.2% for the last rising move.
    • 1.4836: Fibonacci 50% for the last rising move.

    Resistance:
    • 1.5018: Monday's & Tuesday's high.
    • 1.5082: previous resistan4ce from 2008.
    • 1.5144: previous support from 2008.

    ---

    USD/JPY

    For the past 24 hours, the Dollar-yen did not break any of the levels specified in yesterday's report, it did not penetrate 90.23, it did not drop below 89.53. The most important thing to happen from a technical point of view was the fact that the falling trendline and the rising broken trendline came closer to each other. The most important resistance is provided by the falling trendline from October 27th top, which is currently at 90.00. The bears will be in control as long as price is below this line that provides today's most important resistance. And if this happens, we expect the price to fall and test Fibonacci 61.8% support for the short-term at 89.56, and may be a break as well, that will lead to the important bottom 88.82. If the opposite of what we expect happens, and we break the resistance 90.00, the price will be on its way to 90.90 first, and may be 91.31 later.

    Support:
    • 89.56: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
    • 88.82: Oct 14th low, and an important low for determining the medium-term trend.
    • 88.33: previous support.

    Resistance:
    • 90.00: the falling trendline from Oct 27th high.
    • 90.90: a well known previous support/resistance.
    • 91.31: Nov 4th high.

    ---

    Analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther Marji


    ---

    Disclaimer:
    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

     
  16. forexpros2

    forexpros2 Member

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    Forexpros Daily Analysis - 16/11/2009

    Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov. 16, 2009


    Fundamental Analysis, Canada

    • Monday: Manufacturing Sales MoM (Previous -2.1%, Expected 1.6%)
    • Wednesday: CPI MoM (Previous 0.0%, Expected 0.1%) & YoY (Previous -0.9%, Expected 0.3%). Core CPI MoM (Previous 0.3%, Expected 0.0%) & YoY (Previous 1.5%, Expected 1.7%).
    • Thursday: Leading Indicators MoM (Previous 1.1%, Expected 1.7%).

    Get further analysis on
    CAD/USD and other currency pairs at Forexpros.

    ---

    Euro Dollar

    The Euro moved in both directions, before choosing the upside, creating a rising move that continued from Friday until after the open last night, that elevated the EURUSD to 1.4971 until now. The most important support for medium-term is 1.4786, which is a crucial support, for setting the direction for the next few days, because breaking it would indicate that the drop from 1.5047 is not just a correction. Such a break would harm the technical outlook not just for the short-term but for the medium-term as well. However, for the short-term, the most important support is 1.4934, and breaking it would indicate that the fall will carry on and target the important 1.4786, and if broken we will see a test of the bottom that we saw twice 1.4682. The resistance is at 1.4972, and breaking it would send the price to test the top that we saw twice last week 1.5018, which is the key to 1.5082 that could be seen for the first time this year.

    Support:
    • 1.4934: short-term support.
    • 1.4856: Oct 28th & 29th high.
    • 1.4782: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rising move from 1.4625.

    Resistance:
    • 1.4972: short-term resistance.
    • 1.5018: Nov 9th & 10th high.
    • 1.5082: previous resistance from 2008.

    ---

    USD/JPY

    After halting with a reasonable accuracy near the resistance of Friday's report 90.52, Dollar-Yen broke the support 90.02 and reached the first suggested target 89.60. Friday's price behavior introduced the support 89.46, that we will adopt as support of the day. IF this support is taken, we will finally see the long awaited visit of 88.82, the important support for the medium-term. And if broken the next target will be October 13th low 88.13. As for the resistance, it comes from short-term Fibonacci 61.8% at 90.12. A break here would indicate that the odds of surpassing Friday's high are very good, and that will target 90.90 first, and may be 91.31. Even though the falling trendline from 92.31 was broken on Thursday, still the technical picture of the medium-term is hazy, and we await more signals to help us determine the direction of the medium-term.

    Support:
    • 89.46: obvious support on the hourly chart.
    • 88.82: Oct 14th low, and an important low for determining the medium-term trend.
    • 88.13: Oct 13th low.

    Resistance:
    • 90.12: Fibonacci 61.8% for short-term.
    • 90.90: a well known previous support/resistance.
    • 91.31: Nov 4th high.

    ---

    Analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther Marji
    Get more
    Forex education at Forexpros.

    ---

    Disclaimer:
    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
     
  17. forexpros2

    forexpros2 Member

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    Forexpros Daily Analysis - 17/11/2009

    Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov. 17, 2009


    Fundamental Analysis, Australia

    • Tuesday: Reserve Bank's Board November Minutes (Text Report).
    • Wednesday: Westpac Leading Index (Previous 1.1%, Expected N/A).
    • Thursday: Average Weekly Wages QoQ (Previous 1.2%, Expected N/A)
    & YoY (Previous 6.1%, Expected N/A).


    More on
    AUD/USD and other currencies on Forexpros.


    Euro Dollar
    The Euro moved in both directions, breaking both the support & resistance specified in yesterday's report, without being able to reach the target in both cases. We have witnessed a swift move during yesterday's trading, when the Euro dropped very fast to 1.4879 only to rise with the same light speed to 1.5014. This move has founded an important support at 1.4879, where the rising trendline from November 3rd bottom meets yesterday's low. If this support is broken, we will be heading to a test of Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.4782, which is also an important level. As for the resistance, after the price behavior we witnessed in the past few days, the area 1.4982-1.5018 became a gathering for several short-term resistance levels that are very close to each other. We will choose the lower limit of that area as our resistance of the day, if 1.4982 is broken, we will see price levels that have not been seen this year, as we will target 1.5082 first, then 1.5145.

    Support:
    • 1.4934: short-term support.
    • 1.4879: the rising trendline from Nov 3rd bottom, and yesterday's low.
    • 1.4782: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rising move from 1.4625.

    Resistance:
    • 1.4982: the lower limit of the resistance area 1.4982-1.5018.
    • 1.5082: previous resistance from 2008.
    • 1.5145: previous resistance from 2008.

    ---

    USD/JPY

    Dollar-Yen broke the support specified in yesterday's report 89.46, and reached the first suggested target 88.82 successfully, in a long awaited visit to areas below 89. Now, the price is trying hard to hold above 89, after establishing a support at 88.90. If this level holds, we will see a correction of yesterday's drop, while breaking this level in specific indicates a continuation of the downside movement towards 88.13, which is the last important support before the last 15 years low 87.10. As for the resistance, the most important for short-term is November 11th low 89.23, breaking it would initiate a correction that would ideally target 89.88. This level is the most important resistance at the moment, and a candidate to initiate a new down move (of course that is in we get there), only breaking this level would change our expectations to the upside, when we target 90.73.

    Support:
    • 88.90: obvious support on the hourly chart.
    • 88.13: Oct 13th low.
    • 87.10: Jan 12th low.

    Resistance:
    • 89.27: Nov 11th low.
    • 89.88: Fibonacci 61.8% for short-term.
    • 90.73: intraday top.

    ---

    Analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther Marji.

    For
    charts and other trading tools see Forexpros.

    ---

    Disclaimer:
    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
     
  18. forexpros2

    forexpros2 Member

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    Forexpros Daily Analysis - 18/11/2009

    Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov. 18, 2009

    ---

    Fundamental Analysis, UK

    The UK National Statistics Bureau will publish the monthly Retail Sales measurement Tomorrow (Nov 19).
    Retail Sales are a measurement of all goods sold by retailers based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes in the UK.
    It is an important indicator of consumer spending and also correlated to consumer confidence and considered as a pace indicator of the UK economy.
    A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.
    Analysts expect tomorrow’s measurement to stand at 0.60%, a slight increase from last month.

    For analysis on
    GBP/USD and other currencies see Forexpros.

    ---

    Euro Dollar

    As expected, the Euro dropped after breaking 1.4934, reaching the first suggested target 1.4879 successfully, and getting close somehow to the second target and important level 1.4786. This behavior only gave us more confidence in the importance of 1.4786, where there is Fibonacci 61.8% for the up-move from 1.4625 to 1.5047, especially with the rising trendline from August 17th low, approaching this level. Short-term support is nearby at 1.4876, a break here would target Fibonacci 61.8% for the rising move from yesterday's low which is at 1.4839. This is the last notable support before the all important 1.4786. The technical outlook for the short-term will not turn positive before breaking Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from Monday's top at 1.4935. If this happens, the Euro will bounce to 1.4998 first, and if we can break this level, we have the right to wait for 1.5082 for the first time this year.

    Support:
    • 1.4876: short-term support.
    • 1.4839: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
    • 1.4786: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rising move from 1.4625, the most important support for the medium-term.

    Resistance:
    • 1.4935: short-term Fibonacci 61.8%.
    • 1.4998: intraday top from Monday.
    • 1.5082: previous resistance from 2008.

    ---

    USD/JPY

    Dollar-Yen broke both the support & resistance specified in yesterday's report without being able to create any large moves in both cases. Now, the price is trying hard to hold above 89, where Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term is at 89.01. If this level holds, we will see an upward correction, while breaking this level in specific indicates a continuation of the downside movement towards 88.13, which is the last important support before the last 15 years low 87.10. As for the resistance, the most important for short-term is November 11th low 89.23, breaking it would initiate a correction that would ideally target 89.87. This level is the most important resistance at the moment, and a candidate to initiate a new down move (of course that is in case we get there), only breaking this level would change our expectations to the upside, when we target 90.73.

    Support:
    • 88.90: obvious support on the hourly chart.
    • 88.13: Oct 13th low.
    • 87.10: Jan 12th low.

    Resistance:
    • 89.27: Nov 11th low.
    • 89.87: Fibonacci 61.8% for short-term.
    • 90.73: intraday top.

    ---

    Analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther Marji.

    For
    Forex software platforms see Forexpros.

    ---

    Disclaimer
    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
     
  19. forexpros2

    forexpros2 Member

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    Forexpros Daily Analysis - 19/11/2009

    Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov. 19, 2009


    The Bank of Japan is due to hold a press conference Tomorrow (NOV 20).

    The Bank regularly uses press releases in order to communicate with investors. Topics at such conferences generally include economic outlook, inflation and changes in interest rates.

    For more on USD/JPY,
    USD/NZD and other currency majors see Forexpros.

    ---

    Euro Dollar

    The Euro broke the resistance 1.4935, and came very close to our first suggested target at 1.4998, when it reached a top at 1.4990, before retreating back to 1.49 this morning. Short-term resistance is provided by the falling trendline from yesterday's high on the intraday charts, which is currently at 1.4931. If this resistance is overtaken, then the technical outlook will have the strength to reach 1.4998 first, and if this is broke we have the right to expect 1.5082 for the first time this year. As for the support, stopping near Fibonacci 50% for the rising move from 1.4806 to yesterday's top 1.4990 makes it an important support at 1.4898, but the most important support is at 1.4786, and if broken we will be heading towards November 13th bottom 1.4820 first, then the most important support at this stage 1.4786, where there is Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from 1.4625 to 1.5047. Especially with the rising line from August 17th low getting close to this.

    Support:
    • 1.4876: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from 1.4806 to 1.4990.
    • 1.4820: November 13th low.
    • 1.4786: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rising move from 1.4625, the most important support for the medium-term.

    Resistance:
    • 1.4931: the falling trendline from yesterday's top on the intraday charts.
    • 1.4998: intraday top from Monday.
    • 1.5082: previous resistance from 2008.

    ---

    USD/JPY

    Dollar-Yen is still holding on above 89 , but on the other hand it was not able to surpass the previous top at 89.52. Now, the price is trying hard to hold above 89, where Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term is at 89.01. If this level holds, we will see an upward correction, while breaking this level in specific indicates a continuation of the downside movement towards 88.13, which is the last important support before the last 15 years low 87.10. As for the resistance, the most important for short-term is November 11th low 89.23, breaking it would initiate a correction that would ideally target 89.87. This level is the most important resistance at the moment, and a candidate to initiate a new down move (of course that is in case we get there), only breaking this level would change our expectations to the upside, when we target 90.73.

    Support:
    • 89.01: short-term Fibonacci 61.8%
    • 88.13: Oct 13th low.
    • 87.10: Jan 12th low.

    Resistance:
    • 89.27: Nov 11th low.
    • 89.87: Fibonacci 61.8% for short-term.
    • 90.73: intraday top.

    ---

    Analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther Marji.

    For information on
    Central Banks see Forexpros.

    ---

    Disclaimer
    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
     
  20. forexpros2

    forexpros2 Member

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    Forexpros Daily Analysis - 23/11/2009

    Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov 23, 2009


    Webinar Tomorrow on Forexpros: Beyond the Forex Chart: Inter-Market Analysis

    Hosted by: Mark Dela Paz, of FX Instructor
    Tue, Nov 24, 2009, 11:00 EST

    Have you ever wondered why the dollar drops when gold and oil prices are up, or the Yen crosses rally when the stock markets are on a run. Join Mark de la Paz of FXinstructor in his latest module for the ‘Forex 101’ series, as we examine the fundamental reasons behind inter-market correlations and learn how to use technical analysis to take advantage of these market relationships.


    Click here to join the webinar.

    ---

    Fundamental Insight:

    Traders await tomorrow's release of the Ifo Business Climate Index by the German Institute for Economic Research.
    The index is concluded from survey of about 7,000 businesses, and determines the business sentiment and conditions in the Euro-zone.
    A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
    Analysts expect tomorrow's reading to stand at 92.50, and increase from last month's 91.90.

    ---

    Euro Dollar:

    The Euro dropped and broke the specified support in Friday’s report 1.4877, successfully reaching the first suggested target 1.4820. But it stayed above the most important support 1.4786. Short-term support is provided by the rising trendline from Friday’s low on intraday charts, and if broken we will get another chance to test 1.4786 after Friday’s attempt that stopped at 1.4800. The above mentioned support will stay the most important, especially with the rising line from August 17th low getting close to this level. Short-term resistance is 1.4952, and if it is overtaken, then the technical outlook will have the strength to reach 1.5018 first, and if this is broke we have the right to expect 1.5082 for the first time this year.

    Support:
    • 1.4881: the rising trendline from Friday’s low on intraday charts.
    • 1.4820: November 13th low.
    • 1.4786: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rising move from 1.4625, the most important support for the medium-term.

    Resistance:
    • 1.4952: the falling trendline from 1.5047.
    • 1.5018: Nov 9th & 10th high.
    • 1.5082: previous resistance from 2008.

    ---

    USDJPY:

    Dollar-Yen moved in a very tight range on Friday, without any technically significant moves! The down movement has slowed down, drawing our attention to what could be a wedge pattern, which is a pattern that could limit the current drop to the bottom of this pattern, or a support that is close to it, and could push price higher on the short-term. If this scenario turns out to be right, we will rise and break short-term resistance 89.05 where there is the moving average SMA100, and we will witness a rising move targeting the falling trendline from October 26th top, and the upper limit of the above mentioned pattern at 89.71 first, and if broken we could see a jump to 90.73. On the other hand, if the short-term support at 88.72 is broken, we will target 88.13 which is the last significant support before the last 15 years low 87.10

    Support:
    • 88.72: Nov 17th low.
    • 88.13: Oct 13th low.
    • 87.10: Jan 12th low.

    Resistance:
    • 89.05: the moving average SMA100.
    • 89.71: the top of the supposed wedge formation.
    • 90.73: intraday top.

    ---


    Forex Trading Analysis, by Forexpros

    ---

    Disclaimer
    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

     
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