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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 29/03/2010

Discussion in 'Forex Daily News & Outlook' started by forexpros2, Mar 29, 2010.

  1. forexpros2

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    ForexPros Daily Analysis March 29, 2010


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    ---

    Fundamental Analysis: GDP (QoQ)

    Traders of the UK anticipate the publication of the GDP measurement. The
    Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of economic activity
    and is a key indicator for the economy's health. The quarterly percent
    changes in GDP shows the growth rate of the economy as a whole. A higher
    than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while
    a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the
    GBP. Analysts predict a future reading of 0.30%.

    ---

    Euro Dollar

    The Euro continued to rise from last week's low, Friday's low, and the
    10-month low 1.3266. It challenged the important resistance 1.3453,
    surpassed it clearly. But in spite of that we wonder: Can it go back to
    uptrend? The collapse which happened late last week is completely expected,
    not only that, but we believe what we have seen yet is just part one of a
    strong and massive medium term drop which has already started! We will not
    be a bit surprised when we see the Euro below 1.30 in the near future, on
    the contrary, we look forward with eager to that. But after dropping from
    1.38 to 1.32 in a few days, a rising correction is normal & logical thing
    and holds no surprises. Thus, we should focus of the projected targets for
    this correction. As for the short term, we see resistance at the nearby
    1.3453, and the EURUSD will stay harmed, trading under a very negative
    technical outlook as long as we are below this resistance. But if a surprise
    takes us above this level one more time, we will correct the last wave down
    from 1.38. Ideal targets for such a correction are 1.3541 & 1.3606. As for
    the support it is at 1.3385 and breaking it would indicate a continuation of
    the drop. We do expect large targets to be met for the short term, such as
    1.3283 & 1.3190.

    Support:
    * 1.3385: Fibonacci 38.2% for the rise from yesterday's bottom.
    * 1.3283: Thursday's low.
    * 1.3190: Apr 30th low.

    Resistance:
    * 1.3453: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
    * 1.3541: Fibonacci 50% for the drop from 1.3816.
    * 1.3606: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from 1.3816.

    ---

    USD/JPY

    Dollar-Yen did not move a lot on Friday, and failed to create any moves that
    could change the technical picture. As we said on the last report of the
    past week, what is important can be seen when taking a look at the daily
    chart, and spotting that break of a one year old trend line which frustrated
    the Dollar deeply on 3 previous occasions. This break turns the medium term
    outlook to positive, after breaking 90.78 did the same for the short term
    outlook. With this break, the Dollar has released itself from pressure, and
    the direction of the Dollar in this pair could now agree with its direction
    against the European currencies, and we could end up seeing a board Dollar
    rally against all majors. After this rocketing rise, a correction is
    normally expected, and here, the previous critical resistance 90.78 has
    turned to a support that the price should hold above. Short term support is
    at 92.29 & breaking it would indicate a drop to 91.34 first, and may be then
    another drop to 90.78 to retest it. If price holds above it, or at least
    close to it, there will be no harm. But it we go back below this level, the
    positive technical outlook will get hit hard. As for the resistance it is at
    92.77 & if broken, the current rise will continue, and the Dollar will rise
    to a new set of important targets above 93 which includes: 93.20 & 93.75.

    Support:
    * 92.29: Friday's low.
    * 91.34: short term Fibonacci 50% support.
    * 90.78: the previous magnetic resistance, which turned to the most
    important support now

    Resistance:
    * 92.77: important intraday resistance.
    * 93.20: Jan 4th high.
    * 93.75: Jan 8th high.

    ---


    Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji
    for ForexPros.

    ---

    Disclaimer:

    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex
    transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for
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    you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You
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