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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 31/03/2010

Discussion in 'Forex Daily News & Outlook' started by forexpros2, Mar 31, 2010.

  1. forexpros2

    forexpros2 Member

    Oct 20, 2009
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    ForexPros Daily Analysis March 31, 2010

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    Fundamental Analysis: Initial Jobless Claims

    Traders of the US anticipate the publication of the Initial Jobless Claims.
    This is a seasonally adjusted measure of the number of people who file for
    unemployment benefits for the first time during the given week. This data is
    collected by the Department of Labor, and published as a weekly report. The
    number of jobless claims is used as a measure of the health of the job
    market, as a series of increases indicates that there are fewer people being
    hired. On a week-to-week basis, claims are quite volatile. Usually, a move
    of at least 35K in claims, is required to signal a meaningful change in job
    A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the
    USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish
    for the USD. Analysts predict a future reading of 440.00K.


    Euro Dollar

    The Euro continued to rise from last week's low, Friday's low, and the
    10-month low 1.3266, reaching a new top for this correction at 1.3535, from
    which it dropped strongly for more than 150 pips. The collapse which
    happened late last week is completely expected, not only that, but we
    believe what we have seen yet is just part one of a strong and massive
    medium term drop which has already started! We will not be a bit surprised
    when we see the Euro below 1.30 in the near future, on the contrary, we look
    forward with eager to that. But after dropping from 1.38 to 1.32 in a few
    days, a rising correction is normal & logical thing and holds no surprises.
    Thus, we should focus of the projected targets for this correction, the most
    important of which is the Fibonacci 61.8% resistance at 1.3606. Adding
    importance to this level is the fact that the long term descending trend
    line is getting closer and closer to it. As for the short term, we see
    resistance at 1.3441, and if broken, we will continue to correct the last
    wave down from 1.38. Ideal targets for such a correction are 1.3541 & the
    level with continuous rise in its importance 1.3606. As for the support it
    is at 1.3369 and breaking it would indicate a continuation of the drop from
    yesterday's top 1.3535. We do expect large targets to be met for the short
    term, such as 1.3283 & 1.3190.

    * 1.3369: the bottom of the rising trend line from 1.3266 on hourly charts.
    * 1.3283: Thursday's low.
    * 1.3190: Apr 30th low.

    * 1.3441: Fibonacci 38.2% for the drop from yesterday's top.
    * 1.3541: Fibonacci 50% for the drop from 1.3816.
    * 1.3606: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from 1.3816.



    Dollar-Yen broke the resistance specified in yesterday's report 92.68, and
    successfully reached the first suggested target 93.20, in a move in the same
    direction of the technical outlook which followed the break of the falling
    trend line on the daily chart, which we have talked about several times
    recently. Before reaching 93, the technical outlook was positive, and after
    reaching 93, the technical outlook is still positive. But, as we approach
    the important top 93.75, we recommend caution of a possible drop. Since it
    is pretty important, we will take 93.75 to be our "resistance of the day",
    and we do not expect this "correctionless" rise to continue unless it is
    broken. But if it does, the price will jump above 94 for the first time
    since August, targeting 94.35 and may get a taste of 95 as it targets 95.05.
    As for the support it is at 93.00, and breaking it would mean that the price
    has settled for a top at 93.58, for the time being at least, and that we
    will now correct the big rise we just saw.

    * 93.00: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short term.
    * 92.13: Feb 19th low.
    * 91.49: Fibonacci 38.2% for the rise from 88.12.

    * 93.75: Jan 8th high.
    * 94.35: Aug 4th low.
    * 95.05: Aug 24th high.


    Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.



    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex
    transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for
    all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for
    you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You
    may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and
    recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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