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Futures Market Technical and Fundamental Recap

Discussion in 'Forex Daily News & Outlook' started by futuretrends24, May 13, 2009.

  1. futuretrends24

    futuretrends24 New Member

    Apr 30, 2009
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    Today's Futures Analysis summary

    The June Treasury Bonds are developing signs of a bottom but a clash between fundamental traders is limiting gains to the upside. Technical trend traders will turn bullish or cover shorts if 123’04 is crossed. Until then they will continual to press the short side. Fundamental traders are citing the explosive U.S. budget deficit as one reason to believe interest rates must continue to rise. Other fundamental traders believe a buying spree by the Fed to keep mortgage rates under 5% will trigger a short-covering rally.

    The June E-mini S&P 500 was under pressure all day as long traders lightened up positions due to concerns over stock valuations. Reports are circulating that stocks may be overpriced given the outlook for future earnings. The inability to break this market and change the trend to down shows that traders are still interested in the long side but only on dips. A clear signal of an impending change in trend will be the development of a series of lower tops and lower bottoms.

    The rally in the June Euro is another sign that the U.S. currency is losing its luster as a safe haven currency. Doom and gloom in the June British Pound yesterday turned into optimism today as three reports showed that the U.K. economy may be bottoming. Stronger commodity markets helped to support the June Canadian Dollar. Gains were limited however as the stock market was under pressure throughout the day. The strength in the June Japanese Yen may be reflecting the possibility of a break in the global equity markets. June Swiss Franc investors frustrated by the low yields in the U.S. markets are repatriating in an effort to get better returns elsewhere.

    Things are heating up in the precious metals once again as traders are beginning to factor in a return of inflation. June Gold has been showing resiliency and now appears to be poised to rally to at least 937.40 before finding resistance. The strong rise in July Silver has this market in a position to take out the high for the year at 14.64. This could fuel a short-covering rally to 15.25. Unless economic numbers fail to affirm the bottoming action in the global economy, look for the precious metals to trend higher over the short-run.

    The decline in South American soybean production coupled with demand from China has helped form a solid base in the July Soybeans. Look for this rally to begin to accelerate to the upside if the Dollar continues to weaken and as speculators begin to price in a possible weather scare.

    July Cotton remains in a strong uptrend and will only get stronger if soybeans continue to mount its strong rally. Chart watchers are beginning to eye a possible upside objective of 71.36 before serious resistance will be met. Traders are becoming a little concerned that prices may have gotten too “hot” as this market has rallied almost straight up since April 21 without a reasonable correction.

    By FuturesHound.com the portal for Analysis, Education and exclusive timely market Gann Analysis.

    Disclaimer: Trading Futures on the margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.

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