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Futures Market Technical and Fundamental Recap

Discussion in 'Forex Daily News & Outlook' started by futuretrends24, Jun 19, 2009.

  1. futuretrends24

    futuretrends24 New Member

    Apr 30, 2009
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    Today's Futures Analysis summary

    News that the Treasury is going to auction a record amount of government Notes next week sent yields higher on Thursday. The Main Trend remains down for September Bonds with the potential for support developing inside of a retracement zone at 114’13 to 113’24.

    Equity futures tested support levels early on Thursday before rallying. Traders continue to be in the “buy the dip” mode and seem to be shying away from chasing this market higher. Although the main trend remains up in the September NASDAQ and September Dow, the September S&P 500 is indicating developing weakness. There may be one more rally which tests the recent highs, but if this test fails then look for this market to begin to rollover to the downside.

    The Dollar had a mixed day on Thursday. The early part of the day was dominated by a weak Dollar, but the Greenback was able to recover most of its losses following a series of better than expected U.S. economic reports. Trading may be range bound tomorrow and into next week as traders refuse to initiate big positions ahead of the June 24th FOMC meeting.

    The Main Trend is down in August Gold. Currently the market is testing a major 50% retracement price at 929.80. The recent bottom is 926.50. A break under this price reaffirms the down trend and indicates a possible test of the next retracement level at 915.00. Without any inflation to worry about at this time, look for traders to sell rallies.

    The trend remains up in September Crude Oil but this market is approaching a minor retracement point which may attract sellers. Based on the short-term range of 74.66 to 70.62, look for sellers at 72.64 to 73.12. If sellers do show up then a break to 67.85 to 66.24 is likely. A slow recover in the global economy may keep a lid on energy demand.

    November Soybeans rallied on Thursday following a 79 cent break from the recent high. The stronger Dollar is hurting demand for commodities at this time. The only positive for the soybeans is the possibility of a small crop. Farmers have been working to get the whole crop in the ground but wet weather is delaying the planting. Soybeans could mount a strong rally if the crop cannot get in the ground on time.

    The weaker Dollar has hit the September Cocoa market hard as demand for product dropped and there was no one there to support the recent steep rise. Currently this market is trading inside of a major retracement zone at 2574 to 2506. Fresh buying may come in at this zone if the Dollar weakens.

    The steep drop in the September Coffee may have hit bottom on Thursday as buyers came in on the low to trigger a technical reversal to the up side. A trade through 123.70 confirms the reversal bottom and the chart indicates the potential to rally back to about 132.50. The expected rally is likely to be met with selling as demand has been satisfied and speculators are in the mood to sell commodities.

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    Disclaimer: Trading Futures on the margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.

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